Michigan State
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
82  Jeralyn Poe SO 19:52
84  Maggie Farrell FR 19:52
112  Erin McDonald JR 20:00
181  Lynsie Gram SO 20:13
253  Kelsie Schwartz SR 20:24
320  Lindsey Rudden FR 20:33
327  Jenny Rogers JR 20:34
422  Bridget Blake SR 20:44
795  Carlyn Arteaga SO 21:14
National Rank #14 of 348
Great Lakes Region Rank #3 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 93.7%
Most Likely Finish 14th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 20.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 67.7%


Regional Champion 21.4%
Top 5 in Regional 96.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jeralyn Poe Maggie Farrell Erin McDonald Lynsie Gram Kelsie Schwartz Lindsey Rudden Jenny Rogers Bridget Blake Carlyn Arteaga
MSU Spartan Invitational 09/15 496 20:05 19:57 19:54 20:20 20:37 21:07 21:05
Roy Griak Invitational 09/23 377 19:37 19:59 19:36 20:37 20:02 20:32 20:59
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 441 19:52 19:47 19:52 20:15 20:37 20:31 20:43
Big Ten Championship 10/29 482 19:41 19:52 20:33 19:56 20:41 20:34 20:35 20:31 21:06
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/10 371 19:48 19:49 20:11 20:05 20:00 20:35 20:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 93.7% 16.4 445 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.0 4.1 3.9 5.4 4.5 5.5 5.2 5.9 4.6 4.6 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.9 3.8 3.9 2.8 2.7 2.9 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.2 0.6
Region Championship 100% 2.7 100 21.4 28.0 26.9 13.4 6.9 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jeralyn Poe 94.5% 80.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3
Maggie Farrell 94.4% 81.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1
Erin McDonald 94.0% 102.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Lynsie Gram 93.7% 141.4
Kelsie Schwartz 93.7% 173.3
Lindsey Rudden 93.7% 193.4
Jenny Rogers 93.7% 193.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jeralyn Poe 10.0 1.7 4.0 5.4 5.8 6.5 5.4 5.7 6.0 4.8 4.7 5.5 5.1 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.1 2.8 4.1 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.4 0.9 1.1
Maggie Farrell 9.6 2.0 4.6 5.1 4.9 7.3 6.3 6.2 5.3 5.0 6.1 4.4 5.3 3.7 3.6 2.9 2.6 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.5 0.8 1.3 1.1
Erin McDonald 14.5 0.8 2.0 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.0 4.9 5.4 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.4 1.7
Lynsie Gram 24.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0
Kelsie Schwartz 36.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.2
Lindsey Rudden 46.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9
Jenny Rogers 47.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 21.4% 100.0% 21.4 21.4 1
2 28.0% 100.0% 28.0 28.0 2
3 26.9% 96.7% 0.3 1.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 2.8 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 26.0 3
4 13.4% 94.8% 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 12.7 4
5 6.9% 65.2% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 2.4 4.5 5
6 2.3% 39.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4 0.9 6
7 1.0% 21.1% 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 7
8 0.2% 0.2 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 93.7% 21.4 28.0 0.3 1.2 3.6 5.7 7.1 5.3 5.0 3.3 3.7 3.0 3.6 2.9 6.4 49.4 44.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iowa State 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Columbia 78.2% 1.0 0.8
California 58.5% 1.0 0.6
Utah 43.1% 1.0 0.4
Indiana 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Air Force 32.3% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 26.5% 1.0 0.3
Baylor 17.5% 1.0 0.2
Yale 14.2% 1.0 0.1
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.6% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota 0.9% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.6
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 10.0