Michigan
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
44  Jamie Morrissey SR 19:40
48  Gina Sereno SR 19:41
120  Claire Borchers JR 20:02
130  Madeline Trevisan SO 20:04
174  Avery Evenson SR 20:12
268  Haley Meier SR 20:27
344  Sarah Zieve SR 20:36
387  Sophie Linn SR 20:40
546  Rachel Barrett JR 20:55
573  Rachel Coleman JR 20:57
594  Ellie Leonard JR 20:58
604  Audrey Belf JR 21:00
National Rank #9 of 348
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.1%
Most Likely Finish 10th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 8.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 46.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 89.4%


Regional Champion 53.4%
Top 5 in Regional 99.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jamie Morrissey Gina Sereno Claire Borchers Madeline Trevisan Avery Evenson Haley Meier Sarah Zieve Sophie Linn Rachel Barrett Rachel Coleman Ellie Leonard
John McNichols Invitational 09/09 476 20:04 19:51 20:16 20:06 20:29 20:35 20:30 20:18 21:01 20:40 20:57
Sam Bell Invitational 09/30 468 19:39 20:15 20:07 20:11 20:17 20:25 20:45 20:31 20:59 20:48 20:58
Pre-Nationals (Black) 10/14 982 20:22 20:48 21:27 20:47
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 371 19:24 19:36 19:46 20:19 20:26 21:08 21:06
Big Ten Championship 10/29 244 19:25 19:30 19:55 19:55 19:54 20:11 20:49 20:40 21:08
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/10 323 19:39 19:38 19:53 20:01 20:18 20:12 20:56





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.1% 12.1 367 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.6 4.9 6.3 7.5 8.1 7.9 8.3 6.5 6.1 6.5 4.8 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2
Region Championship 100% 1.8 74 53.4 25.9 13.8 4.5 1.6 0.8 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jamie Morrissey 99.6% 50.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1
Gina Sereno 99.3% 52.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9
Claire Borchers 99.1% 108.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Madeline Trevisan 99.1% 115.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Avery Evenson 99.1% 140.9
Haley Meier 99.1% 177.4
Sarah Zieve 99.1% 198.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jamie Morrissey 4.0 8.7 16.2 14.0 11.2 9.8 7.6 5.7 4.8 3.7 3.0 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
Gina Sereno 4.5 6.0 15.5 13.2 11.4 7.3 8.1 6.8 4.9 4.4 4.3 2.8 3.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2
Claire Borchers 15.8 0.2 0.8 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.4 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.0 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.0 3.4 2.5 2.7 2.4
Madeline Trevisan 17.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.6 3.0 4.0 5.1 3.7 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.0 3.2 3.7 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.4
Avery Evenson 23.8 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 3.4 3.2 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.0 3.8 3.0 3.1
Haley Meier 38.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.8
Sarah Zieve 49.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 53.4% 100.0% 53.4 53.4 1
2 25.9% 100.0% 25.9 25.9 2
3 13.8% 100.0% 7.1 4.1 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.8 3
4 4.5% 100.0% 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 4.5 4
5 1.6% 74.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 5
6 0.8% 43.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 6
7 0.2% 33.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 99.1% 53.4 25.9 7.1 5.4 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 79.3 19.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Mississippi 97.2% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 96.9% 1.0 1.0
BYU 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Columbia 78.2% 1.0 0.8
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
Eastern Kentucky 45.5% 1.0 0.5
Indiana 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Ohio State 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Louisville 33.4% 2.0 0.7
Virginia Tech 27.9% 1.0 0.3
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Northern Arizona 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Duke 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Arizona 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Wake Forest 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.6% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dayton 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 6.9
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 12.0