Oregon
Men
-
Women
2016
-
2017 -
2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
Rank | Name | Grade | Rating |
6 |
Katie Rainsberger |
SO |
19:09 |
18 |
Lilli Burdon |
SO |
19:23 |
37 |
Carmela Cardama Baez |
JR |
19:36 |
54 |
Jessica Hull |
JR |
19:43 |
94 |
Alli Cash |
SR |
19:57 |
114 |
Emma Abrahamson |
SR |
20:00 |
280 |
Judy Pendergast |
SO |
20:28 |
|
National Rank |
#4 of 348 |
West Region Rank |
#2 of 40 |
Chance of Advancing to Nationals |
100.0% |
Most Likely Finish |
3rd at Nationals |
National Champion |
13.0% |
Top 5 at Nationals |
77.2% |
Top 10 at Nationals |
97.8% |
Top 20 at Nationals |
100.0% |
Regional Champion |
26.6% |
Top 5 in Regional |
100.0% |
Top 10 in Regional |
100.0% |
Top 20 in Regional |
100.0% |
|
Race Performance Ratings
Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.
Race | Date | Team Rating | |
Katie Rainsberger |
Lilli Burdon |
Carmela Cardama Baez |
Jessica Hull |
Alli Cash |
Emma Abrahamson |
Judy Pendergast |
Pre-Nationals (Red) |
10/14 |
106 |
19:01 |
19:19 |
19:27 |
19:28 |
|
19:44 |
20:49 |
Pac-12 Championship |
10/27 |
193 |
19:16 |
19:26 |
19:50 |
19:32 |
|
20:02 |
20:26 |
West Region Championships |
11/10 |
238 |
19:11 |
19:23 |
19:32 |
20:07 |
20:20 |
20:07 |
20:14 |
NCAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Ave Finish | Ave Score |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
NCAA Championship |
100% |
4.1 |
182 |
13.0 |
15.6 |
18.5 |
17.8 |
12.4 |
8.3 |
5.7 |
3.3 |
2.4 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
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0.2 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
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Region Championship |
100% |
2.1 |
73 |
26.6 |
43.9 |
20.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
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Individual Results
NCAA Championship | Advances to Round | Ave Finish |
Finishing Place |
---|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Katie Rainsberger |
100% |
9.7 |
1.9 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
7.4 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
Lilli Burdon |
100% |
22.9 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
Carmela Cardama Baez |
100% |
43.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
Jessica Hull |
100% |
57.4 |
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0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
Alli Cash |
100% |
93.7 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
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0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
Emma Abrahamson |
100% |
104.3 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
Judy Pendergast |
100% |
183.2 |
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Regional | Ave Finish |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Katie Rainsberger |
3.6 |
9.6 |
16.4 |
15.5 |
13.8 |
10.7 |
7.9 |
7.2 |
5.1 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
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Lilli Burdon |
7.9 |
1.2 |
3.2 |
5.0 |
9.0 |
6.8 |
8.9 |
8.2 |
8.6 |
7.5 |
7.1 |
6.1 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
Carmela Cardama Baez |
13.8 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
6.3 |
5.0 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
5.6 |
4.9 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
2.6 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
Jessica Hull |
17.6 |
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0.4 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.6 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
Alli Cash |
27.0 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
3.4 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
Emma Abrahamson |
29.5 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
Judy Pendergast |
53.9 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
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0.2 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
NCAA Championship Selection Detail
|
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Total |
|
Region Finish |
Chance of Finishing |
Chance of Advancing |
Auto |
|
At Large Selection |
|
No Adv |
Auto |
At Large |
Region Finish |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
1 |
26.6% |
100.0% |
26.6 |
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26.6 |
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1 |
2 |
43.9% |
100.0% |
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43.9 |
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43.9 |
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2 |
3 |
20.5% |
100.0% |
| |
10.7 |
5.9 |
2.9 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
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0.1 |
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20.5 |
3 |
4 |
7.5% |
100.0% |
| |
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2.9 |
2.8 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
0.1 |
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7.5 |
4 |
5 |
1.5% |
100.0% |
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0.4 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
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1.5 |
5 |
6 |
0.1% |
100.0% |
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0.1 |
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0.1 |
6 |
7 |
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7 |
8 |
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8 |
9 |
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9 |
10 |
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10 |
11 |
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11 |
12 |
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12 |
13 |
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13 |
14 |
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14 |
15 |
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15 |
16 |
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16 |
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17 |
18 |
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18 |
19 |
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19 |
20 |
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20 |
21 |
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21 |
22 |
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22 |
23 |
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23 |
24 |
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24 |
25 |
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25 |
26 |
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26 |
27 |
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27 |
28 |
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28 |
29 |
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29 |
30 |
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30 |
31 |
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31 |
32 |
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32 |
33 |
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33 |
34 |
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34 |
35 |
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35 |
36 |
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36 |
37 |
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37 |
38 |
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38 |
39 |
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39 |
40 |
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40 |
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Total |
100% |
100.0% |
26.6 |
43.9 |
10.7 |
8.8 |
6.1 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
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0.1 |
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0.0 |
70.5 |
29.5 |
Points
At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection.
Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.