Stanford
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
19  Fiona O'Keeffe SO 19:25
21  Vanessa Fraser SR 19:26
64  Christina Aragon SO 19:47
91  Elise Cranny JR 19:55
131  Abbie McNulty SR 20:04
153  Ella Donaghu SO 20:09
283  Jessica Lawson FR 20:28
292  Jordan Oakes FR 20:30
335  Maddy Berkson JR 20:34
441  Julia Heymach FR 20:46
628  Catherine Pagano JR 21:02
National Rank #6 of 348
West Region Rank #3 of 40
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Nationals


National Champion 2.5%
Top 5 at Nationals 40.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 86.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.3%


Regional Champion 5.7%
Top 5 in Regional 98.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Fiona O'Keeffe Vanessa Fraser Christina Aragon Elise Cranny Abbie McNulty Ella Donaghu Jessica Lawson Jordan Oakes Maddy Berkson Julia Heymach Catherine Pagano
USD Invite 09/16 768 20:21 20:21 20:21 20:21 22:44
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 401 19:17 19:26 19:43 20:38 20:31 20:37 20:46
Pac-12 Championship 10/27 190 19:27 19:21 19:47 19:53 19:44 20:06 20:23 20:24 20:32 20:51
West Region Championships 11/10 179 19:11 19:20 19:52 19:45 20:26 19:47 20:31





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 6.8 253 2.5 4.8 6.9 11.7 14.5 15.2 12.6 8.8 6.0 4.1 3.9 2.0 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 3.1 99 5.7 20.2 39.7 26.0 6.6 1.9 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Fiona O'Keeffe 100% 23.8 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.6 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 1.8
Vanessa Fraser 100% 26.2 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.8 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.5
Christina Aragon 100.0% 69.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.9
Elise Cranny 100.0% 89.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Abbie McNulty 100.0% 117.1 0.1 0.1
Ella Donaghu 100.0% 131.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Jessica Lawson 100.0% 181.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Fiona O'Keeffe 8.6 1.1 2.4 5.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 8.8 9.2 7.6 7.8 7.5 5.4 5.1 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5
Vanessa Fraser 8.9 0.6 2.9 3.3 6.2 6.4 7.6 7.0 8.8 8.5 6.7 7.3 5.8 6.1 4.5 3.9 3.7 2.1 1.9 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4
Christina Aragon 19.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 4.5 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.9 3.8 4.2 3.6 4.0 3.3
Elise Cranny 25.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.0 2.1 1.9 2.8 2.7 3.1 4.0 3.5 3.8 4.6 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.3
Abbie McNulty 32.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.7 3.1 2.5 3.8
Ella Donaghu 36.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.7 2.3
Jessica Lawson 54.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 5.7% 100.0% 5.7 5.7 1
2 20.2% 100.0% 20.2 20.2 2
3 39.7% 100.0% 7.6 13.9 10.0 5.1 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 39.7 3
4 26.0% 100.0% 4.4 9.1 6.7 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 26.0 4
5 6.6% 100.0% 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.6 5
6 1.9% 97.4% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 6
7 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
Total 100% 100.0% 5.7 20.2 7.6 18.2 20.6 13.4 7.5 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 25.9 74.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 96.1% 1.0 1.0
Washington 96.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 90.4% 1.0 0.9
BYU 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Columbia 78.2% 1.0 0.8
California 58.5% 1.0 0.6
Utah 43.1% 1.0 0.4
Indiana 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Air Force 32.3% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 26.5% 1.0 0.3
Baylor 17.5% 1.0 0.2
Yale 14.2% 1.0 0.1
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.3
Minimum 3.0
Maximum 14.0