Toledo
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
216  Athena Welsh SO 20:18
417  Joan Jepkirui SR 20:43
459  Stephanie Barlow SR 20:47
551  Janelle Noe SR 20:55
602  Jennifer Lichter JR 20:59
685  Petronela Simiuc JR 21:07
942  Michelle Hostettler FR 21:25
948  Zita Molnar SO 21:25
1,002  Stephanie Sherman SO 21:28
1,011  Delainey Phelps SR 21:29
1,123  Olivia Chinn JR 21:36
1,185  Nina Bendixen JR 21:40
1,429  Amanda Bakley FR 21:56
1,833  Riley Kwiatkowski FR 22:22
1,905  Maddie Ferner SO 22:26
1,981  Morgan Dembowski FR 22:31
2,058  Julia Mendiola SR 22:36
2,063  Hannah Sponaugle FR 22:37
National Rank #73 of 348
Great Lakes Region Rank #10 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.9%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 1.4%
Top 10 in Regional 70.3%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Athena Welsh Joan Jepkirui Stephanie Barlow Janelle Noe Jennifer Lichter Petronela Simiuc Michelle Hostettler Zita Molnar Stephanie Sherman Delainey Phelps Olivia Chinn
Roy Griak Invitational 09/23 977 21:22 21:04 20:20 21:05 20:40 21:23 21:33
All Ohio Championships 09/29 1233 21:19 21:42
Bradley Pink Classic 10/13 1231 21:25
Pre-Nationals (Black) 10/14 21:13 21:37
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 816 20:16 20:27 20:40 21:01 20:35 21:24 21:24
Mid-American Championship 10/28 931 20:21 20:59 20:46 20:41 21:09 21:18 21:49 21:54 21:36
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/10 757 19:57 20:28 20:36 20:30 21:25 21:03 21:33





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.9% 29.1 703 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1
Region Championship 100% 9.6 296 0.2 0.1 1.2 3.2 7.5 18.6 21.1 18.6 13.0 7.9 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Athena Welsh 8.5% 127.1
Joan Jepkirui 1.0% 173.5
Stephanie Barlow 0.9% 180.0
Janelle Noe 0.9% 217.0
Jennifer Lichter 0.9% 211.0
Petronela Simiuc 0.9% 220.0
Michelle Hostettler 0.9% 242.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Athena Welsh 30.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 3.0 3.3 3.1
Joan Jepkirui 57.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4
Stephanie Barlow 62.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Janelle Noe 72.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Jennifer Lichter 77.0 0.1
Petronela Simiuc 84.7
Michelle Hostettler 105.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 3
4 0.1% 50.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 4
5 1.2% 21.7% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.3 5
6 3.2% 12.7% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.8 0.4 6
7 7.5% 0.7% 0.1 7.5 0.1 7
8 18.6% 18.6 8
9 21.1% 21.1 9
10 18.6% 18.6 10
11 13.0% 13.0 11
12 7.9% 7.9 12
13 5.1% 5.1 13
14 2.4% 2.4 14
15 0.7% 0.7 15
16 0.4% 0.4 16
17 0.1% 0.1 17
18 0.2% 0.2 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 0.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0 0.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Wake Forest 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.6% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dayton 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0