Boys - Girls
Elkhart Central Regional
2009 - 2010 - 2011



These are rankings of individuals and teams that feed into this regional. It is not a projected order of finish in the race.
Below the rankings is a projection of this round of the tournament.


RankNameGradeSchoolRatingState Rank
1  A.J. Walker 12 Mishawaka 16:04 #26  
2  Joey Zielinski 11 St. Joseph's 16:08 #31  
3  Miguel Lozano 11 Mishawaka 16:16 #52  
4  Tyler Wynn 12 Goshen 16:19 #54  
5  Devin Duffy 12 Penn 16:26 #68  
6  Steven Dennig 12 Clay 16:29 #77  
7  Connor Method 11 St. Joseph's 16:30 #79  
8  Josh O'Brien 11 St. Joseph's 16:34 #93  
9  Daniel Zelaya 12 Concord 16:39 #115  
10  Jordan Scroggs 12 Warsaw 16:39 #117  
11  Jordan Smeltzer 12 Fairfield 16:42 #129  
12  Trevor Moore 12 Northridge 16:44 #133  
13  Luke Sullivan 12 Clay 16:44 #134  
RankNameSectionalRatingState Rank
1  St. Joseph's Riley 273 #11  
2  Mishawaka Riley 294 #15  
3  Northridge Elkhart Central 403 #29  
4  Warsaw Elkhart Central 447 #34  
5  Penn Riley 518 #44  
6  Goshen Elkhart Central 559 #49  



Regional Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Only teams that advanced out of the sectional simulation for each trial were included in the regional simulation for that trial. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.


SchoolAdvances to RoundAvg FinishAvg ScoreMin ScoreMax Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
St. Joseph's 100.0% 1.4 44 19 97 66.0 29.6 4.2 0.3 0.0
Mishawaka 100.0% 1.8 52 22 108 32.2 59.1 8.1 0.6 0.0
Northridge 100.0% 3.3 80 36 143 1.6 8.9 59.2 23.5 6.0 0.8
Warsaw 100.0% 3.9 93 37 147 0.3 2.2 25.0 51.7 16.8 4.1
Penn 100.0% 5.0 111 58 167 0.0 0.2 3.0 18.1 51.3 27.4
Goshen 100.0% 5.6 124 67 168 0.0 0.6 5.7 25.9 67.8


RunnerSchoolRatingAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
A.J. Walker Mishawaka 16:04 100.0% 1.1 47.8 28.3 12.6 5.6 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Joey Zielinski St. Joseph's 16:08 100.0% 1.6 34.3 24.5 19.4 11.1 5.5 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miguel Lozano Mishawaka 16:16 100.0% 3.1 4.7 20.8 23.3 18.4 11.8 7.5 5.0 3.5 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Tyler Wynn Goshen 16:19 100.0% 3.6 8.8 12.5 17.3 18.2 13.3 9.3 7.0 4.6 2.8 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Devin Duffy Penn 16:26 100.0% 5.5 2.6 5.3 8.7 12.2 15.3 12.2 10.1 8.3 7.0 4.8 3.7 2.6 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Steven Dennig Clay 16:29 100.0% 6.3 1.2 3.5 6.9 10.3 12.4 12.3 11.6 10.0 7.5 5.8 5.0 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2
Connor Method St. Joseph's 16:30 100.0% 6.7 0.1 2.3 5.0 8.5 12.2 13.7 12.2 10.3 8.6 6.6 5.2 4.1 3.5 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2
Josh O'Brien St. Joseph's 16:34 100.0% 8.1 0.0 0.9 2.4 5.2 7.5 10.7 11.7 11.0 10.4 8.1 6.7 6.0 5.1 3.9 3.1 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4
Daniel Zelaya Concord 16:39 100.0% 10.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.6 6.3 7.6 8.0 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.3 6.3 6.3 5.1 4.3 4.0 2.4 2.3 1.7
Jordan Scroggs Warsaw 16:39 100.0% 10.3 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.7 4.1 6.0 7.6 8.4 8.7 8.4 8.6 7.1 7.1 6.2 5.8 5.0 4.0 2.9 2.0 1.3
Jordan Smeltzer Fairfield 16:42 100.0% 11.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.1 5.7 6.8 7.0 8.3 8.1 7.6 6.7 7.0 6.2 6.2 5.1 4.0 3.5 2.8
Trevor Moore Northridge 16:44 100.0% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.0 3.9 5.3 6.5 7.5 8.3 8.0 8.9 8.0 7.2 6.5 5.1 5.0 3.8 2.8
Luke Sullivan Clay 16:44 99.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.1 5.8 6.6 7.8 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 6.7 6.4 5.8 5.5 4.0 3.2