Castle
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #53
Brown County Semi-State Rank #10
Pike Central Regional Rank #2
Mater Dei Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 10th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 2.6%
Advance to Semi-State 99.9%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Kentucky-Indiana Border Clash Dennis Bays Warrior Invitational Alan Hopewell Class Invitational THSB State Preview Mater Dei Invitational South Knox Invitational Pike Central Invitational Southern Indiana Athletic Conference Mater Dei Sectional Pike Central Regional Brown County Semi-State
Date 8/23 8/27 9/1 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 588 544 478 569 659 567 614 610 627 625 505 599
Team Adjusted Rating 544 478 569 597 557 550 581 627 625 505 599
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Kentucky-Indiana Border Clash Dennis Bays Warrior Invitational Alan Hopewell Class Invitational THSB State Preview Mater Dei Invitational South Knox Invitational Pike Central Invitational Southern Indiana Athletic Conference Mater Dei Sectional Pike Central Regional Brown County Semi-State
213  Jackson Sawyer 10 17:01 17:15 16:46 17:06 17:19 17:10 17:02 16:52 17:09 16:52 16:39 17:10
311  Matt Scales 12 17:16 17:16 16:52 17:01 17:15 17:14 17:21 17:27 17:13 17:21
465  Chris Brake 11 17:34 17:27 17:14 17:43 17:35 17:24 17:37 17:33 17:34 17:34 18:18 17:25
579  Corde Outlaw 10 17:44 17:26 17:13 17:22 18:03 17:58 17:57 18:12 17:55 17:57 17:21 17:47
650  Ethan Jones 11 17:50 17:30 18:03 18:29 17:25 17:56 18:01 17:33 17:53
699  George Economou 10 17:55 18:19 17:54 17:59 17:58 18:02 17:58 17:50 17:55 18:05 17:33 17:50
978  Matt Gerst 11 18:17 19:03 18:05 17:23 19:12 19:03 18:02 18:04 18:03 18:21
Owen Fehr 9 19:30 20:23 19:09 19:43 19:25 19:18 21:05 19:27 18:54
Thomas Noffsinger 11 21:00 21:44 20:39 17:11 21:29 22:26




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 2.6% 23.4 571 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7
Semi-State 99.9% 11.1 303 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 3.3 6.9 13.4 21.3 15.5 11.1 7.9 5.5 4.4 3.1 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.5
Regionals 100% 2.1 87 19.2 55.0 21.7 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 61 97.0 2.7 0.2 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jackson Sawyer 3.5% 113.4 0.9% 1.3%
Matt Scales 2.6% 137.3 0.0% 0.0%
Chris Brake 2.6% 165.0 0.0% 0.0%
Corde Outlaw 2.6% 176.7 0.0% 0.0%
Ethan Jones 2.6% 182.8 0.0% 0.0%
George Economou 2.6% 187.7 0.0% 0.0%
Matt Gerst 2.6% 200.9 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jackson Sawyer 100.0% 41.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 83.3% 99.9%
Matt Scales 100.0% 62.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 83.3% 97.2%
Chris Brake 99.9% 94.2 0.0% 67.5%
Corde Outlaw 99.9% 110.5 0.0% 37.1%
Ethan Jones 99.9% 119.5 0.0% 20.1%
George Economou 99.9% 124.6 0.0% 12.3%
Matt Gerst 99.9% 147.1 0.0% 0.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jackson Sawyer 100% 8.2 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.8 8.9 17.1 16.0 13.8 11.2 8.3 5.6 4.1 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Matt Scales 100% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 4.0 6.4 8.1 9.2 9.3 9.6 8.0 7.8 7.0 6.0 5.4 4.7 3.4 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.6 100.0%
Chris Brake 100% 22.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.3 3.1 3.7 4.8 4.7 6.0 6.3 7.5 7.4 7.7 7.9 7.8 100.0%
Corde Outlaw 100% 26.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.8 5.2 6.3 7.1 100.0%
Ethan Jones 100% 30.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.8 4.0 100.0%
George Economou 100% 32.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.3 100.0%
Matt Gerst 100% 41.7 0.0 0.0 97.6%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jackson Sawyer 5.6 0.0 1.4 6.8 26.3 24.4 18.2 12.5 6.7 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Matt Scales 8.6 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.5 12.3 17.5 20.8 19.6 12.4 5.7 2.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chris Brake 12.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 3.0 7.9 15.2 19.5 17.2 12.9 8.7 6.2 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Corde Outlaw 15.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.4 6.8 10.0 13.1 13.9 12.7 10.9 9.0 7.0 4.9 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2
Ethan Jones 17.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.2 7.1 9.6 11.4 11.7 11.8 11.4 10.5 8.3 5.2 3.2 1.4 0.7
George Economou 18.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.4 5.5 7.8 10.0 11.8 12.6 12.7 11.0 9.9 5.9 3.2 1.7
Matt Gerst 24.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.3 7.0 11.0 13.9 14.6