Concord
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #56
New Haven Semi-State Rank #12
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #3
Elkhart Central Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 10th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.2%
Advance to Semi-State 84.4%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Marion Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic Northern Lakes Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 622 564 637 645 713 628 606 639 641
Team Adjusted Rating 564 637 645 622 628 606 639 641
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Marion Invitational Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash New Prairie Invitational New Haven Classic Northern Lakes Conference Elkhart Central Sectional Elkhart Central Regional New Haven Semi-State
272  Salvador Escamilla 12 17:11 17:02 17:00 17:12 17:31 17:29 17:06 17:02
329  Luke Shoemaker 10 17:18 17:09 17:29 17:06 17:22 17:19 17:15 17:21 17:24
508  Luke Owings 9 17:38 17:29 17:32 17:45 17:43 17:36 17:45 17:51 17:24
613  David Arvidson 11 17:47 17:21 17:48 18:02 18:13 17:37 17:45 17:37 18:03
716  Jonathan Gomez 12 17:56 18:07 18:13 18:04 17:21 17:52 17:25 18:09 18:12
1,147  Jose Sosa 11 18:29 18:29 18:33 18:22 18:31
1,166  Tyler Schwartz 12 18:30 18:23 18:36 18:28 18:36 18:20 18:46 18:29 18:25
1,202  Nikolas Schraw 11 18:31 18:56 18:25 18:11 18:20 18:30 18:52 18:25 18:50
1,323  Noah Wright 9 18:40 18:51 19:00 18:36 18:37 18:31




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.2% 23.4 576 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 84.4% 11.1 318 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.4 7.8 20.6 19.8 16.0 11.4 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 4.0 123 9.0 33.7 24.6 17.1 10.6 4.0 1.0 0.2
Sectionals 100% 2.4 79 10.2 46.9 37.0 5.8 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Salvador Escamilla 0.6% 127.0 0.4% 0.4%
Luke Shoemaker 0.3% 136.8 0.1% 0.1%
Luke Owings 0.2% 159.5 0.0% 0.0%
David Arvidson 0.2% 177.5 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Gomez 0.2% 179.5 0.0% 0.0%
Jose Sosa 0.2% 202.9 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Schwartz 0.2% 203.1 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Salvador Escamilla 98.4% 59.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0% 97.7%
Luke Shoemaker 94.9% 70.2 0.0 67.5% 90.5%
Luke Owings 84.8% 99.4 2.8% 33.6%
David Arvidson 84.4% 112.1 0.1% 12.6%
Jonathan Gomez 84.4% 123.7 0.1% 3.1%
Jose Sosa 84.4% 153.7 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Schwartz 84.4% 154.5 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Salvador Escamilla 100% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.5 4.5 5.4 5.9 6.6 6.4 6.3 7.3 6.4 5.8 5.9 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.5 1.4 100.0%
Luke Shoemaker 100% 17.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.9 6.1 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.5 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.5 100.0%
Luke Owings 100% 30.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.6 3.9 100.0%
David Arvidson 100% 36.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 100.0%
Jonathan Gomez 100% 42.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Jose Sosa 100% 63.3 79.5%
Tyler Schwartz 100% 63.8 77.4%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Salvador Escamilla 7.5 1.3 3.8 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.3 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.2 8.2 5.8 3.9 3.1 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Luke Shoemaker 10.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.8 3.6 5.1 6.2 8.3 9.7 10.9 12.0 10.1 9.0 7.3 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Luke Owings 16.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 7.9 9.1 11.7 12.8 11.5 9.2 7.1 5.5 3.9 2.4 1.9 1.1
David Arvidson 19.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.6 7.5 9.8 10.8 11.2 10.1 9.8 7.5 6.4 5.1
Jonathan Gomez 22.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.9 5.7 7.4 8.8 9.6 10.8 11.2 10.4
Jose Sosa 32.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4
Tyler Schwartz 33.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4