Northrop
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #15
New Haven Semi-State Rank #5
West Noble Regional Rank #4
Northrop Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 14th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 2.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 20.0%
Advance to State Finals 97.7%
Advance to Semi-State 98.9%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Huntington North Invitational DeKalb Classic Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 321 290 294 279 323 846 412 382 371 340 324 372
Team Adjusted Rating 290 294 279 323 321 412 382 371 340 324 372
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational DeKalb Classic Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
81  Dustin Starnes 12 16:30 16:27 16:26 16:10 16:24 17:23 16:59 16:29 16:38 16:15 16:54
96  Aj Cambron 12 16:35 16:53 16:59 16:47 16:28 16:38 16:48 16:46 16:38 16:33 16:28
100  Jack Brokaw 10 16:36 15:58 16:13 16:13 16:32 16:41 16:39 16:32 16:55 16:47 16:45
152  Conner Bayne 10 16:47 16:46 16:57 16:57 16:58 17:03 16:56 17:16 16:54 17:08 16:40
300  Josh Prochaska 12 17:15 17:37 17:02 16:58 17:20 17:19 17:21 17:22 17:01 17:04 17:38
573  Nick Derickson 11 17:44 17:08 16:46 17:34 18:47 17:35 18:17 17:54 17:34 17:32 18:08
622  Tristan Auer 12 17:48 17:51 17:16 17:47 17:28 17:32 17:34 17:56 18:21 18:06 17:59
736  Landon Cisco 10 17:57 17:58 17:55 18:13 17:42 17:46 18:07 18:00
1,547  Danny Stephen 10 18:59 18:54 19:12 19:15 18:45 19:22 18:34
Husam Saleh 10 19:12 19:07 19:18 19:15 19:04 19:48 18:55




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 97.7% 14.2 370 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.7 4.3 5.4 6.6 7.6 8.4 8.7 8.0 7.1 7.2 6.1 5.3 4.6 3.6 2.7 1.4 0.5
Semi-State 98.9% 4.2 126 0.1 5.6 18.7 29.7 37.4 6.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 3.8 105 0.1 5.5 16.7 71.0 5.6 1.1 0.0
Sectionals 100% 2.9 78 0.2 11.1 86.3 2.3 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dustin Starnes 98.2% 77.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 23.4% 83.1%
Aj Cambron 97.8% 91.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.1% 68.2%
Jack Brokaw 97.9% 91.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9.8% 68.3%
Conner Bayne 97.7% 118.0 0.0% 31.2%
Josh Prochaska 97.7% 163.0 0.0% 0.4%
Nick Derickson 97.7% 191.4 0.0% 0.0%
Tristan Auer 97.7% 194.3 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dustin Starnes 100.0% 20.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.3 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.4 5.9 5.6 4.8 99.1% 100.0%
Aj Cambron 100.0% 24.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.8 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.6 6.1 95.5% 99.8%
Jack Brokaw 99.9% 24.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.3 5.7 90.9% 99.8%
Conner Bayne 99.5% 32.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.8 52.7% 97.5%
Josh Prochaska 98.9% 65.6 0.0 0.0% 40.8%
Nick Derickson 98.9% 109.9 0.0% 0.5%
Tristan Auer 98.9% 115.6 0.0% 0.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dustin Starnes 100% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.3 4.6 6.1 6.6 7.5 8.8 8.9 8.5 8.2 7.4 5.7 4.4 3.2 2.9 2.0 1.4 1.0 100.0%
Aj Cambron 100% 17.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.7 4.7 6.0 7.3 8.0 8.3 8.7 8.5 7.4 7.0 5.5 4.3 3.4 2.5 100.0%
Jack Brokaw 100% 17.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.6 4.0 4.8 5.8 6.5 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 7.7 6.6 5.4 4.6 3.7 2.7 100.0%
Conner Bayne 100% 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.1 4.4 5.4 7.1 7.2 8.4 8.3 8.0 7.6 100.0%
Josh Prochaska 100% 34.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 99.8%
Nick Derickson 100% 54.5 74.3%
Tristan Auer 100% 58.6 62.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dustin Starnes 10.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.3 3.3 4.4 6.2 8.9 11.3 12.4 12.6 11.2 9.0 6.6 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Aj Cambron 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.9 10.6 12.2 13.6 12.1 9.5 6.4 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jack Brokaw 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.9 4.3 6.3 8.9 10.8 12.4 13.1 12.0 9.7 7.1 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Conner Bayne 16.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.6 4.4 6.5 10.5 13.6 14.7 16.2 13.1 8.7 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
Josh Prochaska 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.4 7.5 12.4 15.3 14.7 12.5 9.7
Nick Derickson 34.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.6
Tristan Auer 37.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8