All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
| Season Rating | |
Northern Indiana Conference Stomp |
South Bend City Meet |
Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northern Indiana Conference |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Central Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
|---|
| Date | |
8/20 |
9/1 |
9/10 |
9/17 |
9/24 |
10/1 |
10/8 |
10/15 |
10/22 |
| Team Rating |
655 |
617 |
626 |
706 |
765 |
696 |
667 |
671 |
614 |
663 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
617 |
626 |
688 |
668 |
696 |
667 |
671 |
614 |
663 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Northern Indiana Conference Stomp |
South Bend City Meet |
Elkhart/St. Joseph County Clash |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northern Indiana Conference |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Central Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
|---|
| 309 |
Jared Chapin |
10 |
17:16 |
16:53 |
17:16 |
17:17 |
17:33 |
17:01 |
17:07 |
17:13 |
17:24 |
17:38 |
| 313 |
Nolan O'Rourke |
11 |
17:16 |
17:22 |
17:28 |
17:17 |
17:16 |
17:39 |
17:07 |
17:14 |
17:04 |
17:20 |
| 598 |
Josh Toppen |
12 |
17:45 |
17:34 |
17:27 |
17:39 |
|
17:53 |
17:51 |
17:53 |
17:42 |
17:51 |
| 635 |
Isaac Baker |
10 |
17:49 |
17:51 |
17:35 |
18:19 |
17:42 |
17:49 |
18:02 |
17:54 |
17:42 |
17:39 |
| 879 |
Cory Charles |
12 |
18:09 |
|
|
|
|
19:10 |
18:17 |
18:13 |
17:53 |
17:53 |
| 1,113 |
Ricardo Carbajal Diaz |
12 |
18:26 |
18:16 |
18:18 |
18:28 |
18:38 |
18:24 |
18:29 |
18:12 |
18:36 |
18:30 |
| 1,151 |
Bailey Harris |
10 |
18:29 |
18:06 |
18:08 |
18:23 |
18:29 |
18:30 |
18:26 |
18:41 |
18:44 |
18:34 |
| 1,238 |
Alex Walters |
12 |
18:34 |
18:25 |
18:16 |
18:29 |
18:37 |
18:32 |
18:57 |
|
|
|
| 1,358 |
Emery Harris |
12 |
18:43 |
18:44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dieter Ruszkowski |
9 |
19:03 |
18:39 |
|
19:23 |
19:07 |
18:55 |
19:05 |
|
|
|
|
Aaron Denzer |
12 |
19:09 |
19:03 |
|
18:54 |
19:09 |
19:10 |
19:23 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
23.0 |
563 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
| Semi-State |
67.8% |
11.7 |
332 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
3.4 |
12.0 |
14.6 |
15.5 |
13.1 |
6.1 |
1.9 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
4.8 |
135 |
|
3.9 |
19.2 |
22.2 |
22.5 |
19.4 |
9.2 |
3.1 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.5 |
74 |
0.0 |
57.3 |
36.5 |
6.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jared Chapin |
0.2% |
132.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
| Nolan O'Rourke |
0.3% |
128.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2% |
0.3% |
| Josh Toppen |
0.0% |
165.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Isaac Baker |
0.0% |
165.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Cory Charles |
0.0% |
172.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Ricardo Carbajal Diaz |
0.0% |
187.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Bailey Harris |
0.0% |
194.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jared Chapin |
95.3% |
66.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
85.3% |
94.4% |
| Nolan O'Rourke |
94.6% |
67.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
83.3% |
93.5% |
| Josh Toppen |
68.0% |
106.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.7% |
15.7% |
| Isaac Baker |
67.9% |
111.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2% |
9.8% |
| Cory Charles |
67.8% |
135.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.2% |
| Ricardo Carbajal Diaz |
67.8% |
150.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Bailey Harris |
67.8% |
152.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jared Chapin |
100% |
15.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Nolan O'Rourke |
100% |
16.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Josh Toppen |
100% |
35.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Isaac Baker |
100% |
38.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Cory Charles |
100% |
50.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Ricardo Carbajal Diaz |
100% |
61.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Bailey Harris |
100% |
63.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jared Chapin |
6.6 |
|
0.1 |
0.9 |
8.2 |
15.5 |
16.6 |
14.2 |
11.4 |
9.8 |
7.1 |
5.5 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nolan O'Rourke |
6.7 |
|
0.0 |
0.9 |
7.4 |
15.2 |
16.4 |
13.5 |
12.0 |
9.6 |
7.4 |
6.0 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
| Josh Toppen |
16.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
6.9 |
8.9 |
10.9 |
11.8 |
12.5 |
10.7 |
7.0 |
5.1 |
3.4 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
| Isaac Baker |
17.6 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
4.1 |
5.3 |
7.0 |
8.6 |
10.7 |
12.0 |
12.4 |
10.4 |
7.8 |
5.4 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
| Cory Charles |
23.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
3.3 |
6.0 |
8.2 |
9.7 |
10.6 |
9.8 |
9.8 |
| Ricardo Carbajal Diaz |
29.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
| Bailey Harris |
30.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
3.1 |
|
