Chesterton
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #28
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #8
New Prairie Regional Rank #4
Chesterton Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.2%
Advance to State Finals 27.3%
Advance to Semi-State 99.3%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Northern Indiana Conference Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational MacNider Invite Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 433 533 373 447 426 441 488 486 452 410 495
Team Adjusted Rating 404 373 447 426 441 488 486 452 410 495
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Northern Indiana Conference Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational MacNider Invite Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
31  Jakob Kintzele 11 16:10 15:44 15:50 16:05 15:44 16:13 16:59 16:16 16:25 16:10 16:10
85  Andrew Smenyak 11 16:32 16:38 16:19 16:23 16:15 16:40 16:57 16:43 16:41 16:45 16:25
228  Zac McDaniel 12 17:03 17:06 17:20 17:14 17:03 16:51 17:10 17:04 16:54 17:00
463  Nathan O'Connor 10 17:34 17:16 17:25 17:42 17:31 17:40 17:36 17:26 17:32 18:05
646  Dylan Olson 11 17:50 18:00 17:54 18:47 17:53 18:25 18:13 18:16 18:31 17:34 18:47
780  John Adkins 9 18:01 18:15 17:41 18:14 18:11 17:52 17:56 18:08
781  Ethan Pape 11 18:02 18:05 18:05 18:01 17:58 17:40 17:55 18:00 19:38
934  Sam Winski 11 18:13 18:09 18:07 18:06 17:59 18:22 18:28 18:25 18:15
949  Jon Bach 12 18:15 17:37 18:03 18:04 18:18 19:03
1,126  Mathew VanKley 10 18:27 18:45 18:14 18:10 18:31 18:34 18:29
1,281  Drew Berry 12 18:37 18:18 18:42 18:16 18:33 19:24
1,282  Dylan Draves 9 18:37 18:36 18:40 18:10 18:38 18:40 18:55
1,362  Will Shook 9 18:43 18:55 19:03 18:40 18:31 18:44 18:40
1,488  Kenny Erow 10 18:54 19:08 18:16 18:58 18:46 19:23
Calvin Cardin 9 19:10 19:21 19:20 18:50 18:57 19:31
Blake Holsclaw 12 19:10 19:02 19:35 19:09 19:07 19:07
Trevor Peterson 12 19:22 19:26 18:39 19:16 20:04 19:18 19:35




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 27.3% 18.0 430 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.7 3.3 4.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2
Semi-State 99.3% 7.8 220 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 8.4 12.2 16.5 17.7 15.7 11.8 7.4 2.5 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 3.5 93 5.3 13.5 26.8 37.0 16.7 0.7 0.0
Sectionals 100% 3.5 85 4.4 11.9 27.2 39.3 17.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jakob Kintzele 99.3% 34.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.0 99.0% 99.3%
Andrew Smenyak 68.0% 75.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 56.0% 66.9%
Zac McDaniel 27.3% 132.8 0.0% 1.3%
Nathan O'Connor 27.3% 175.1 0.0% 0.0%
Dylan Olson 27.3% 189.0 0.0% 0.0%
John Adkins 27.3% 196.7 0.0% 0.0%
Ethan Pape 27.3% 197.0 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jakob Kintzele 100% 6.7 1.6 3.4 6.2 9.2 10.1 11.4 11.0 9.2 7.9 6.5 5.7 4.1 3.4 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0% 100.0%
Andrew Smenyak 100% 17.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.3 3.9 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.3 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.7 100.0% 100.0%
Zac McDaniel 99.9% 49.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 92.0% 99.5%
Nathan O'Connor 99.3% 85.2 1.3% 51.8%
Dylan Olson 99.3% 110.8 0.0% 10.9%
John Adkins 99.3% 127.9 0.0% 1.5%
Ethan Pape 99.3% 128.3 0.0% 1.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jakob Kintzele 100% 1.5 34.8 33.0 16.8 8.5 3.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Andrew Smenyak 100% 5.6 0.2 3.0 10.9 13.6 14.7 12.8 9.6 8.6 7.5 5.6 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Zac McDaniel 100% 17.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.8 4.2 5.0 6.2 6.4 7.5 7.9 7.6 7.8 7.9 6.8 5.9 5.1 3.2 2.8 100.0%
Nathan O'Connor 100% 33.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 99.8%
Dylan Olson 100% 42.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 94.4%
John Adkins 100% 48.6 75.6%
Ethan Pape 100% 48.7 0.0 0.0 75.3%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jakob Kintzele 1.4 35.1 33.9 17.0 8.4 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Andrew Smenyak 5.0 0.2 3.4 12.0 16.3 18.3 13.4 9.8 9.0 7.2 3.8 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zac McDaniel 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.9 4.5 6.4 7.6 9.1 9.7 9.4 9.8 8.3 7.6 6.4 4.2 3.1 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.7
Nathan O'Connor 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.7 4.6 5.0 5.7 6.5
Dylan Olson 34.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0
John Adkins 38.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Ethan Pape 38.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2