Warsaw
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #32
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #9
Culver Academies Regional Rank #1
Culver Academies Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 9th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 17.4%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Warsaw Classic Marion Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Culver Academies Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/23 9/3 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 451 498 402 394 431 442 481 495 435
Team Adjusted Rating 498 402 394 431 442 481 495 435
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Warsaw Classic Marion Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Culver Academies Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
28  Zeb Hernandez 10 16:08 16:23 16:11 15:39 15:54 16:25 16:12 16:28 16:06 16:02
147  Lucas Howett 11 16:46 16:32 16:36 16:31 16:46 16:45 17:01 17:04 16:44
197  Xavi Ramirez 11 16:58 16:48 16:34 16:57 16:50 16:59 16:58 17:26 17:03
591  Taylor Mills 11 17:45 17:57 17:18 17:28 17:46 17:51 17:51 17:30 18:18
619  Nathaniel Gottschalk 11 17:48 18:20 18:03 17:49 17:47 17:23 18:02 17:40 17:42
706  Ridley Lemon 11 17:55 18:28 17:56 18:14 18:19 18:14 17:52 17:39
1,007  Justin Fleming 11 18:19 18:52 18:37 18:50 18:16 18:15 17:52 18:27 18:03
1,313  Nick Bazzoni 9 18:39 18:24 18:16 18:35 18:41 19:13
1,371  Hunter Metzger 10 18:44 18:22 18:49 18:42 18:51 18:45
1,482  Kennis Dye 11 18:54 18:52 18:24 18:40 20:11
Gary Keyes 10 19:04 19:20 19:08 19:05 19:04 19:00
TJ Day 12 19:05 19:28 19:02 19:03 19:03
Anthony Bass 10 19:06 19:14 19:21 19:04 19:01
Eric Williamson 11 19:07 19:17 19:04 19:44 18:35 19:10
Isaac Mitchel 10 19:21 19:12 19:21 19:29 19:30 19:16




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 17.4% 18.6 439 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.1
Semi-State 100% 8.5 233 0.0 0.8 2.6 5.2 8.7 12.5 17.0 19.0 16.0 12.2 5.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.1 45 94.3 5.7
Sectionals 100% 1.1 36 94.5 5.5



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zeb Hernandez 99.4% 30.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.4 99.3% 99.4%
Lucas Howett 26.6% 96.5 0.0 11.2% 19.9%
Xavi Ramirez 17.8% 119.2 0.5% 3.3%
Taylor Mills 17.4% 183.7 0.0% 0.0%
Nathaniel Gottschalk 17.4% 185.9 0.0% 0.0%
Ridley Lemon 17.4% 191.6 0.0% 0.0%
Justin Fleming 17.4% 203.1 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zeb Hernandez 100% 5.9 2.2 5.9 7.9 11.6 12.1 11.4 9.9 8.6 7.0 5.6 4.2 3.4 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Lucas Howett 100% 30.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.4 100.0%
Xavi Ramirez 100% 43.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 100.0%
Taylor Mills 100% 102.5 99.1%
Nathaniel Gottschalk 100% 106.7 98.7%
Ridley Lemon 100% 119.0 95.1%
Justin Fleming 100% 145.4 42.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zeb Hernandez 100% 1.5 9.5 75.7 13.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Lucas Howett 100% 4.6 0.0 6.6 22.0 36.5 20.6 9.6 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Xavi Ramirez 100% 6.4 0.6 2.8 9.9 26.0 26.7 19.7 10.7 3.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Taylor Mills 100% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.3 11.1 10.5 10.0 9.6 8.9 7.4 7.3 6.2 5.2 4.4 3.2 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.1 100.0%
Nathaniel Gottschalk 100% 15.7 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.6 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.2 7.6 7.0 6.3 5.7 5.1 4.1 3.5 2.6 2.1 100.0%
Ridley Lemon 100% 19.2 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 4.2 5.2 5.7 6.8 6.5 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.6 6.9 6.5 5.9 5.0 100.0%
Justin Fleming 100% 30.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Zeb Hernandez 1.5 9.5 77.1 13.4 0.0
Lucas Howett 3.6 0.0 9.2 64.8 18.9 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
Xavi Ramirez 4.9 0.9 9.5 45.8 26.4 13.8 3.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Taylor Mills 11.4 0.1 0.9 5.2 13.2 12.9 12.9 12.6 11.1 9.7 8.1 5.7 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nathaniel Gottschalk 12.3 0.0 0.4 3.0 8.6 10.9 12.3 11.7 11.6 11.5 9.8 8.3 5.5 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ridley Lemon 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.1 6.1 8.0 9.7 10.9 11.7 13.0 13.5 9.6 6.0 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
Justin Fleming 20.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.4 7.9 12.9 16.3 15.1 12.7 9.6 7.5 4.7