All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
| Season Rating | |
Defiance Early Bird Open |
THSB State Preview |
Fairfield Invite |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northeast Corner Conference |
West Noble Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
8/26 |
9/2 |
9/12 |
9/16 |
9/23 |
9/30 |
10/7 |
10/14 |
10/21 |
10/28 |
| Team Rating |
180 |
198 |
156 |
NEI |
186 |
157 |
223 |
269 |
202 |
250 |
186 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
198 |
156 |
NEI |
186 |
157 |
223 |
184 |
202 |
250 |
186 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Defiance Early Bird Open |
THSB State Preview |
Fairfield Invite |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Classic |
Northeast Corner Conference |
West Noble Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 5 |
Matthew Yoder |
12 |
15:37 |
15:40 |
15:30 |
|
15:44 |
15:30 |
15:59 |
15:41 |
15:41 |
15:40 |
15:50 |
| 17 |
Richmond Stoltzfus |
12 |
15:52 |
15:54 |
15:47 |
|
16:06 |
15:55 |
16:05 |
15:50 |
16:05 |
16:13 |
15:45 |
| 89 |
Kent Yoder |
11 |
16:31 |
16:23 |
16:19 |
|
16:18 |
16:22 |
16:34 |
16:37 |
16:41 |
16:34 |
16:44 |
| 93 |
Spencer Carpenter |
9 |
16:32 |
16:56 |
16:34 |
|
16:42 |
16:35 |
16:52 |
|
16:42 |
17:12 |
16:25 |
| 97 |
Remington Carpenter |
9 |
16:35 |
16:41 |
16:31 |
|
16:34 |
16:23 |
16:39 |
|
16:31 |
16:44 |
16:38 |
| 176 |
Abe Jones |
12 |
16:51 |
17:16 |
17:05 |
NEI |
17:06 |
17:07 |
17:16 |
17:18 |
17:00 |
17:22 |
16:44 |
| 308 |
Anthony Schwartz |
10 |
17:11 |
16:58 |
17:04 |
NEI |
17:09 |
16:44 |
17:04 |
17:07 |
17:48 |
17:17 |
17:12 |
| 539 |
Carson Eash |
12 |
17:38 |
17:43 |
17:26 |
NEI |
17:15 |
17:36 |
17:57 |
18:21 |
|
|
|
| 703 |
Mason Jones |
12 |
17:53 |
17:29 |
18:01 |
NEI |
17:49 |
17:50 |
17:49 |
18:18 |
|
|
|
| 761 |
Martin Miller |
10 |
17:58 |
17:32 |
17:34 |
NEI |
17:56 |
|
19:23 |
|
|
|
|
| 818 |
Avery Niccum |
10 |
18:02 |
17:39 |
18:21 |
NEI |
17:51 |
18:08 |
17:59 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,056 |
Darrion Thornburgh |
10 |
18:19 |
18:36 |
18:20 |
NEI |
18:30 |
18:35 |
17:51 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,316 |
Payton Oliver |
9 |
18:39 |
20:18 |
19:19 |
NEI |
18:40 |
18:07 |
18:00 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dominic Hostetler |
9 |
19:24 |
19:08 |
18:59 |
|
20:26 |
20:09 |
18:45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jamie Cenzano |
12 |
20:01 |
19:10 |
19:42 |
|
|
|
21:14 |
|
|
|
|
|
Andrew Cupp |
9 |
20:19 |
19:12 |
19:32 |
|
|
21:18 |
20:35 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
100% |
4.1 |
180 |
4.1 |
20.1 |
22.7 |
18.7 |
13.1 |
9.1 |
4.7 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
1.1 |
50 |
90.4 |
8.7 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
1.1 |
37 |
93.1 |
6.8 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
18 |
99.9 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Matthew Yoder |
100% |
5.9 |
4.3 |
9.1 |
10.4 |
10.8 |
8.6 |
8.1 |
7.7 |
6.4 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Richmond Stoltzfus |
100% |
16.3 |
|
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
100.0% |
| Kent Yoder |
100% |
82.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
51.4% |
| Spencer Carpenter |
100% |
84.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
47.9% |
| Remington Carpenter |
100% |
89.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
41.8% |
| Abe Jones |
100% |
125.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4.9% |
| Anthony Schwartz |
100% |
160.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Matthew Yoder |
100% |
1.0 |
51.6 |
24.2 |
13.7 |
6.5 |
2.8 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Richmond Stoltzfus |
100% |
3.9 |
1.5 |
13.1 |
18.0 |
20.3 |
19.1 |
13.8 |
7.4 |
4.3 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Kent Yoder |
100% |
17.4 |
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
4.7 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
|
99.8% |
| Spencer Carpenter |
100% |
18.6 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
3.8 |
4.7 |
5.5 |
6.3 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
|
99.7% |
| Remington Carpenter |
100% |
21.1 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
|
99.9% |
| Abe Jones |
100% |
42.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
|
92.2% |
| Anthony Schwartz |
100% |
71.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
41.6% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Matthew Yoder |
100% |
1.0 |
63.4 |
25.8 |
9.0 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Richmond Stoltzfus |
100% |
2.7 |
2.4 |
24.6 |
34.0 |
30.3 |
7.3 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Kent Yoder |
100% |
8.9 |
|
|
|
0.3 |
4.4 |
9.5 |
11.4 |
12.7 |
12.7 |
9.3 |
7.6 |
7.0 |
5.8 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Spencer Carpenter |
100% |
9.2 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
4.0 |
9.8 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
10.3 |
10.5 |
8.6 |
7.1 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Remington Carpenter |
100% |
10.5 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
2.2 |
4.6 |
7.7 |
9.8 |
10.4 |
11.0 |
9.3 |
9.1 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
3.3 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Abe Jones |
100% |
19.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
4.4 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
7.1 |
6.5 |
7.1 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
3.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Anthony Schwartz |
100% |
32.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Matthew Yoder |
1.0 |
95.7 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Richmond Stoltzfus |
1.5 |
4.4 |
95.2 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kent Yoder |
4.0 |
|
|
23.3 |
26.5 |
23.6 |
15.8 |
6.6 |
2.8 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Spencer Carpenter |
4.0 |
|
|
22.8 |
26.3 |
23.5 |
16.9 |
5.7 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Remington Carpenter |
4.6 |
|
|
13.6 |
20.5 |
24.8 |
21.6 |
11.4 |
4.8 |
2.6 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Abe Jones |
7.7 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
7.4 |
21.6 |
25.7 |
16.4 |
11.1 |
7.2 |
4.5 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Anthony Schwartz |
12.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
6.6 |
9.4 |
13.4 |
12.0 |
13.4 |
12.6 |
9.2 |
7.6 |
5.1 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
