Carmel
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #2
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #1
Noblesville Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 29.1%
Top 5 at State Finals 89.3%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.0%
Advance to State Finals 99.9%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Zionsville Early Bird (4k) Hamilton County Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/24 9/3 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 168 336 179 185 219 167 195 150 231 235 202 142
Team Adjusted Rating 169 173 176 168 161 195 150 175 184 202 142
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Zionsville Early Bird (4k) Hamilton County Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
13  Kole Mathison 9 15:54 15:49 15:58 15:59 15:46 15:56 15:54 16:02 15:58 15:49
15  Grant Moon 12 15:58 15:56 16:00 15:56 16:03 16:03 16:00 16:01 15:51
63  Austin Throckmorton 12 16:24 16:41 16:29 16:36 16:28 16:22 16:30 16:20 16:47 16:37 16:18
73  Will Murphy 12 16:27 16:43 16:28 16:39 16:26 16:48 16:21
76  Ben Myers 12 16:28 18:10 16:28 16:29 16:46 16:34 16:31 16:32 16:32 16:21
89  Charlie Schuman 10 16:32 17:30 16:36 16:22 16:43 16:43 16:08 16:27 16:59 16:25
107  Hudson Alden 11 16:38 16:31 16:44 16:43 16:34 16:29 16:30 16:35 16:39 17:03
130  Will Anderson 11 16:46 16:26 16:42 16:42 16:35 16:55 16:54 16:55
171  Jake Fisher 11 16:53 16:33 16:29 17:00 17:14
186  Nick Schuster 12 16:54 16:44 17:07 16:52 17:02 16:57 16:56 16:50
217  Sam Hooton 12 17:00 16:45 18:58 17:04 16:57 17:00 16:56 16:54 16:59
238  Ben Johnson 12 17:03 17:31 17:15 16:41 16:59
259  Caleb Leinheiser 12 17:07 17:06 16:56 16:42 16:47 17:21 18:08
267  Bing Hudson 11 17:08 18:17 17:01 16:45 17:12 17:12 17:09
269  Kurt Stephens 12 17:09 17:03 17:00 17:03 16:51 17:25 17:27
314  Nate Seketa 11 17:14 17:20 17:07 17:18 17:23 17:31 17:05 17:04
319  TK Shishikura 12 17:14 17:07 16:56 17:06 17:03 17:21 17:39 17:25
351  Charlie Leedke 9 17:18 17:17 17:43 17:36 17:17 17:13 17:17 17:11
430  Connor Heagy 10 17:27 17:26 17:56 17:27 17:25 17:31 17:30 17:18
530  Quavion Hooks 9 17:37 17:21 17:21 17:25 19:25 17:10 18:14
541  Alec Wrobleski 11 17:37 17:52 17:37 17:30 17:38 17:57 17:24 17:37
547  Josh Bubp 10 17:38 17:44 17:38 17:35 17:33 17:37 17:33 17:55
551  Dan Montgomery 9 17:38 18:07 17:28 18:31 17:34 17:23 17:32
648  Kj Sweeney 9 17:47 17:42 17:42 17:23 18:23 17:25 18:28
697  Dan Schrader-Dobris 11 17:52 17:31 19:10 17:22 18:23 17:39 17:54
702  Ryle Worland 9 17:53 17:55 17:26 17:37 17:40 18:16 17:50 18:32
706  James Gastineau 11 17:53 18:09 17:13 18:02 17:45 17:27 18:07 18:22
718  Owen Urtel 11 17:54 17:35 17:53 17:44 17:55 17:57 18:17 17:53
728  Miles Simmons 11 17:55 17:31 17:33 18:03 17:46 18:07 18:20
747  Owen Booth 12 17:56 17:42 18:31 17:53 17:47 17:53 18:11
828  Noah Bergsma 12 18:04 18:02 17:54 18:13 18:11 17:54 18:11
839  Adi Friedman 12 18:05 17:57 19:49 19:06 17:53 17:39 17:53
921  Quavion Galbreath 9 18:11 18:12
957  Peyton Sandlin 12 18:14 19:34 18:15 18:10 18:06 18:16 18:13 18:10
969  Dylan Zhou 12 18:15 18:16 17:35 18:30 18:09 18:40 18:22 18:09
979  Sam Eiteljorge 10 18:16 18:33 17:36 18:08 18:07 18:29 18:34
1,026  Ethan R. Smith 12 18:19 18:31 17:50 18:15 18:16 18:22 18:23 18:32
1,038  Ian Miller 10 18:20 18:22 18:21 18:30 18:05 18:27
1,055  Carter Lindfelt 11 18:22 18:31 18:28 18:33 18:16 17:54 18:20 18:37
1,129  Will Campbell 11 18:26 18:21 18:09 18:16 18:17 18:41 18:49 18:29
1,152  Trevor Johnson 12 18:28 18:58 18:24 18:14 18:20 18:37
1,165  Drew Miller 11 18:28 18:03 18:18 17:59 18:44 18:27 19:26
1,279  Brett Barnhart 11 18:37 19:07 18:48 19:04 18:37 18:13 18:25
1,286  Everett Carlisle 9 18:37 18:59 18:20 18:32 18:35 19:18 18:29 18:32
1,296  Kyle Mundy 11 18:38 18:02 20:31 18:38 18:58 18:32 18:22
1,351  Logan Sandlin 12 18:42 18:55 18:52 18:39 18:52 18:21 18:44
1,359  Reece Colvin 10 18:42 18:40 19:06 19:07 18:37 18:21 18:32 18:53
1,385  Jerry Huang 11 18:44 18:46 18:24 18:37 18:43 18:51 18:59
1,429  Suraj Chandramouli 11 18:48 18:50 18:51 18:54 18:48 18:41
1,435  Neil Fairman 9 18:48 19:15 18:40 19:01 18:47 18:23 18:54 18:50
1,447  Tomas Balcius 9 18:49 18:56 18:25 19:45 18:50 18:29 18:56
1,453  Aiden Ascioti 12 18:50 19:03 19:09 19:01 18:40 18:51 18:45 18:45
1,485  Amit Manchella 10 18:52 18:48 18:51 18:59
1,487  Cam Wien 10 18:52 19:13 19:07 18:59 18:45 18:57 18:37 18:52
1,519  Dan Musapatika 11 18:54 19:13 19:20 19:21 18:44 18:26 18:52
Quinn Bright 11 19:02 19:01 19:06 19:06 19:10 18:59 18:52 19:05
Drake Snider 9 19:02 19:41 19:11 19:04 19:03 18:45 19:09 18:55
JT Underhill 11 19:05 19:08 18:33 19:48 18:48 20:25 18:56 18:57
Jack Lappin 10 19:08 19:49 19:37 19:25 19:09 18:53 18:37
Charlie Ernst 10 19:11 19:35 19:01 19:33 19:30 19:18 18:57 18:51
Drew Steele 10 19:12 19:16 19:02 19:16 19:18 18:54 19:30
Jake Gottlieb 10 19:13 19:45 19:07 18:56 20:27 18:19 19:21
Drew Zetzl 12 19:17 19:17 18:42 19:00 19:33 19:39 19:20
Pranav Jothirajah 11 19:18 18:47 19:38 19:40 19:15 19:10
Tyler Young 11 19:21 19:20 19:17 18:56 18:12 20:51 19:47
Charlie Steulpe 9 19:34 19:13 19:12 19:00 19:40 20:00 19:47 19:43
Adrian Baldoni 11 19:40 19:50 19:57 18:40 19:47 19:48
Ryan Abshire 12 19:43 19:59 22:28 18:53 19:32 20:03 19:30
Jack Snelling 11 19:51 20:09 19:03 19:24 19:42 20:26 20:03 19:59
Paul Lee 11 20:17 20:03 18:55 20:16 20:17 20:43 21:17 20:13
Gavin Holmes 9 20:52 21:17 21:30 17:25 20:49 21:19




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 99.9% 2.9 149 29.1 26.2 16.3 11.4 6.4 4.3 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1
Semi-State 100% 1.6 83 61.5 23.7 9.8 3.5 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.4 48 67.4 29.4 3.1 0.2 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 28 95.9 4.1 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100.0% 13.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 2.9 3.7 4.0 4.9 5.3 4.8 5.3 4.8 5.4 4.8 4.3 4.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.6 50.0% 99.5%
Grant Moon 100.0% 16.9 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.0 3.4 3.3 4.3 4.2 4.8 4.9 4.3 3.9 5.3 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.9 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 50.0% 98.5%
Austin Throckmorton 99.9% 61.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.0% 49.3%
William Murphy 99.9% 67.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0% 39.4%
Ben Myers 99.9% 69.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0% 36.9%
Charlie Schuman 99.9% 80.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0% 24.7%
Hudson Alden 99.9% 91.7 0.1 0.1 0.0% 11.9%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 5.6 3.2 7.8 9.9 10.8 10.8 12.5 9.5 7.4 6.1 5.2 4.3 3.6 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 100.0%
Grant Moon 100% 7.5 1.5 2.5 5.2 6.8 9.6 9.6 9.9 10.5 8.8 7.1 4.8 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 100.0%
Austin Throckmorton 100% 25.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.2 4.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.6 99.7%