Chesterton
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #29
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #3
Chesterton Regional Rank #3
New Prairie Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 22nd place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.1%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season Rating NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/21 9/4 9/11 9/18 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 465 487 413 392 459 485 677 438 449 476
Team Adjusted Rating 487 413 392 418 485 513 438 449 476
State RankRunnerSeason Rating NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
129  Cole Dolson 12 16:46 16:46 16:25 16:23 17:04 16:51 16:59 16:50 16:37 16:53
162  Jackson Tuck 11 16:54 17:09 16:53 16:49 16:34 17:01 17:05 16:51 16:50 16:57
226  Evan O'Connor 10 17:06 17:15 17:02 16:50 16:52 17:17 17:03 17:22 17:08
373  Bobby Berger 11 17:30 17:28 17:37 17:56 17:07 17:20 17:26 17:21 18:28
388  Max Welbourne 10 17:32 17:08 16:59 17:37 17:49 17:40 17:35 17:29
390  Josh Tuck 11 17:33 17:27 18:00 17:31 17:23 17:33
411  Reece Erow 12 17:36 18:22 18:03 17:45 18:03 17:46 18:04 17:18 17:49 17:44
1,234  Tyler Herzog 10 18:49 18:42 18:48 19:05 18:55 18:54 18:35
1,241  Oliver Wilgocki 10 18:50 18:46 18:56 18:45 18:59 18:44 18:50
Matt Long 11 19:03 19:13 18:56 19:21 18:53
Drew Carpenter 11 19:17 19:33 19:13 19:00 19:43 19:17
Trevor Arlington 10 19:23 19:12 18:58 19:20 21:25




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 21.0 515 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 4.0 6.3 9.0 13.8 16.0 16.4 16.3 13.7
Semi-State 100% 4.1 148 6.0 15.8 24.2 17.6 13.3 9.7 6.9 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 3.2 84 3.8 13.3 45.6 34.9 2.3 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.7 65 7.3 20.0 69.9 2.7 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Dolson 100% 110.6 57.0%
Jackson Tuck 100% 123.6 29.8%
Evan O'Connor 100% 140.8 6.6%
Bobby Berger 100% 170.3 0.0%
Max Welbourne 100% 172.4 0.0%
Josh Tuck 100% 172.8 0.0%
Reece Erow 100% 176.8 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Dolson 100% 17.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.0 100.0%
Jackson Tuck 100% 23.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 100.0%
Evan O'Connor 100% 33.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.3 3.2 100.0%
Bobby Berger 100% 59.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4%
Max Welbourne 100% 62.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.6%
Josh Tuck 100% 62.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.5%
Reece Erow 100% 68.8 0.0 89.4%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Dolson 100% 9.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.4 5.2 6.5 8.8 11.3 14.4 14.7 12.1 8.1 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Jackson Tuck 100% 12.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.0 3.4 5.2 7.9 11.7 14.7 14.6 12.3 9.4 7.1 4.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Evan O'Connor 100% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.5 5.3 8.1 11.4 13.4 12.5 13.4 9.6 6.6 4.8 3.6 2.3 1.5 1.1 0.6 100.0%
Bobby Berger 100% 25.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.6 4.7 5.0 6.0 5.8 7.2 6.7 7.2 100.0%
Max Welbourne 100% 26.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.3 3.8 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.4 7.1 100.0%
Josh Tuck 100% 26.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.5 100.0%
Reece Erow 100% 28.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Dolson 6.5 0.8 4.4 7.8 8.8 13.5 28.8 18.2 8.6 4.8 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jackson Tuck 8.1 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.3 12.0 24.1 20.2 13.3 9.1 4.6 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evan O'Connor 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 4.6 13.1 15.9 15.1 16.4 9.8 7.0 5.3 3.7 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Bobby Berger 19.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 4.7 5.4 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.4 7.4 5.6 5.0
Max Welbourne 20.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.7 6.6 6.9 7.7 8.1 8.2 7.2 6.9 6.4
Josh Tuck 20.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.4 5.5 6.0 7.4 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.1 6.6
Reece Erow 22.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.1 3.9 4.8 5.4 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.6 8.7 8.0