All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
Huntington Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Wildcat Classic |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
Nike Valley Twilight |
Northrop Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | |
8/21 |
8/28 |
9/4 |
9/11 |
9/18 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
10/30 |
| Team Rating |
430 |
485 |
389 |
385 |
1,042 |
356 |
434 |
477 |
469 |
409 |
434 |
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
463 |
389 |
385 |
430 |
356 |
434 |
477 |
469 |
409 |
434 |
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Huntington Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Wildcat Classic |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
Nike Valley Twilight |
Northrop Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 37 |
Ethan Baitz |
12 |
16:12 |
16:34 |
16:06 |
15:57 |
|
16:07 |
16:03 |
16:06 |
16:23 |
16:07 |
16:12 |
16:23 |
| 203 |
Chase Molden |
12 |
17:02 |
16:48 |
16:52 |
16:41 |
|
16:41 |
16:58 |
17:33 |
17:00 |
17:11 |
17:09 |
|
| 225 |
Aiden Waugh |
9 |
17:06 |
17:33 |
17:03 |
17:03 |
|
16:49 |
17:01 |
17:12 |
17:12 |
17:04 |
17:06 |
|
| 333 |
Grayson Welch |
11 |
17:27 |
17:19 |
17:11 |
17:17 |
|
17:12 |
17:35 |
17:31 |
17:35 |
17:20 |
17:41 |
|
| 354 |
Ben Johnson |
12 |
17:28 |
|
17:30 |
17:35 |
|
17:22 |
17:38 |
17:27 |
17:38 |
17:20 |
17:22 |
|
| 396 |
Jude Minich |
12 |
17:34 |
|
17:52 |
17:42 |
|
17:48 |
17:43 |
18:02 |
17:40 |
17:16 |
17:29 |
|
| 691 |
Anthony Gery |
11 |
18:05 |
18:00 |
17:54 |
17:45 |
|
18:21 |
18:17 |
18:00 |
|
|
|
|
| 715 |
Evan McMahon |
9 |
18:08 |
18:11 |
17:39 |
|
18:13 |
18:20 |
18:18 |
18:07 |
|
17:49 |
18:25 |
|
| 745 |
Ayden Cooper |
10 |
18:10 |
18:14 |
17:37 |
|
|
18:06 |
17:58 |
18:14 |
18:39 |
|
|
|
| 800 |
Hudson Gates |
10 |
18:15 |
17:49 |
18:10 |
18:02 |
|
18:20 |
18:29 |
18:20 |
|
|
|
|
| 857 |
Carson Heckman |
11 |
18:20 |
17:45 |
18:46 |
17:53 |
|
18:26 |
18:25 |
18:24 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,018 |
Josh Rodgers |
9 |
18:34 |
18:57 |
19:43 |
|
18:09 |
18:32 |
18:04 |
18:41 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,120 |
Trevor Nadeau |
12 |
18:42 |
18:46 |
18:51 |
18:39 |
|
18:54 |
18:42 |
18:27 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,290 |
Tim Smith |
9 |
18:54 |
19:20 |
18:53 |
|
19:06 |
18:46 |
18:52 |
18:51 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,292 |
Ethan Widenhoefer |
10 |
18:54 |
19:02 |
19:04 |
|
|
19:07 |
18:47 |
18:44 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,300 |
Johnnie Ankenbruck |
9 |
18:55 |
19:01 |
18:46 |
|
19:23 |
18:59 |
18:50 |
18:41 |
|
|
|
|
|
Anthony Tomaszewski |
9 |
19:03 |
19:09 |
18:59 |
|
19:01 |
19:07 |
18:57 |
19:08 |
|
|
|
|
|
Chris Martin |
11 |
19:05 |
19:01 |
19:16 |
|
18:59 |
19:15 |
18:55 |
19:08 |
|
|
|
|
|
Tyler Hess |
10 |
19:14 |
18:37 |
18:48 |
|
|
|
|
20:00 |
|
|
|
|
|
Caleb Wood |
12 |
19:15 |
20:01 |
19:37 |
19:22 |
|
19:10 |
19:17 |
18:40 |
|
|
|
|
|
Reuben Bowie |
10 |
19:18 |
19:27 |
19:36 |
|
|
|
|
19:07 |
|
|
|
|
|
Matthew Norrod |
11 |
19:21 |
19:25 |
19:27 |
|
19:31 |
19:20 |
19:26 |
19:02 |
|
|
|
|
|
Owen Hill |
9 |
19:22 |
19:55 |
20:33 |
|
18:43 |
19:05 |
18:58 |
20:02 |
|
|
|
|
|
Britton Shumard |
10 |
19:25 |
19:54 |
19:45 |
|
19:25 |
19:25 |
|
19:04 |
|
|
|
|
|
Aidan Houser |
12 |
19:27 |
19:44 |
20:15 |
19:39 |
|
19:28 |
19:20 |
18:57 |
|
|
|
|
|
Brendan Malone |
11 |
19:43 |
|
20:02 |
|
19:06 |
20:02 |
|
19:41 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
7.6 |
231 |
|
|
0.3 |
1.5 |
7.6 |
17.8 |
22.9 |
24.6 |
13.8 |
6.8 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
2.6 |
82 |
15.3 |
33.8 |
35.3 |
11.4 |
3.6 |
0.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.6 |
75 |
15.1 |
29.5 |
40.0 |
14.3 |
1.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ethan Baitz |
94.5% |
40.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
94.5% |
94.5% |
| Chase Molden |
0.3% |
98.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
| Aiden Waugh |
0.0% |
98.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ethan Baitz |
100% |
15.3 |
|
0.1 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
4.0 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Chase Molden |
100% |
51.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
96.3% |
| Aiden Waugh |
100% |
57.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
92.6% |
| Grayson Welch |
100% |
81.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
41.8% |
| Ben Johnson |
100% |
83.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36.9% |
| Jude Minich |
100% |
91.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21.9% |
| Evan McMahon |
100% |
138.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ethan Baitz |
100% |
4.3 |
|
7.4 |
16.0 |
21.1 |
21.2 |
15.6 |
9.6 |
5.0 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Chase Molden |
100% |
15.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
4.7 |
7.8 |
9.8 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
9.8 |
8.4 |
7.6 |
6.0 |
5.1 |
3.8 |
3.1 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Aiden Waugh |
100% |
17.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
5.9 |
7.6 |
8.7 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
8.7 |
7.7 |
6.5 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Grayson Welch |
100% |
28.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Ben Johnson |
100% |
29.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Jude Minich |
100% |
33.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
|
99.9% |
| Evan McMahon |
100% |
54.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
72.8% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ethan Baitz |
3.2 |
7.3 |
16.3 |
22.5 |
22.8 |
17.3 |
9.4 |
3.5 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Chase Molden |
11.5 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
5.6 |
9.9 |
13.1 |
13.4 |
12.3 |
11.0 |
8.3 |
7.1 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Aiden Waugh |
13.2 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
2.2 |
5.0 |
7.7 |
9.7 |
11.7 |
10.6 |
11.1 |
10.1 |
7.8 |
6.1 |
4.7 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
| Grayson Welch |
21.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
7.8 |
7.9 |
7.5 |
7.6 |
8.2 |
7.5 |
| Ben Johnson |
22.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
6.3 |
7.4 |
7.7 |
7.9 |
8.2 |
8.3 |
| Jude Minich |
25.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
4.9 |
5.7 |
6.3 |
7.4 |
8.4 |
| Evan McMahon |
36.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
