Manchester
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #122
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #26
Culver Academies Regional Rank #6
Manchester Sectional Rank #6
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 0.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season Rating Rochester Invitational Warsaw Invitational Manchester Invitational Tippecanoe Valley Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational Three Rivers Conference Manchester Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State
Date 8/21 8/24 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23
Team Rating 982 1,048 934 933 936 931 988 1,078 1,049 1,005
Team Adjusted Rating 1,048 934 933 936 931 988 982 1,049 1,005
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Rochester Invitational Warsaw Invitational Manchester Invitational Tippecanoe Valley Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational Three Rivers Conference Manchester Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State
447  Raven King 11 17:41 17:39 17:23 17:36 17:35 18:03 17:35 17:36 17:51 17:35 17:51
832  Cade Jones 12 18:18 19:01 18:03 18:21 18:00 17:45 18:32 18:22 18:19 18:16 18:26
1,150  Jake Hesting 10 18:44 19:06 19:11 18:22 18:22 18:31 18:38 19:05 18:56 18:45
1,201  Lane Stetzel 11 18:47 18:45 18:34 18:44 19:00 18:34 18:54 18:28 18:55 19:01
1,256  Kyler Dale 9 18:51 18:38 18:34 18:42 18:49 18:51 18:47 19:08 19:01
Caden Marcum 11 19:59 20:36 20:59 21:13 20:05 20:15 20:00 20:02 19:32 19:47
Caleb Smith 10 20:09 20:29 20:33 20:03 19:50 19:42 19:53 20:08 20:41 20:32




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 0.0%
Regionals 100% 5.7 147 0.1 1.1 7.2 30.2 48.4 8.9 3.5 0.7
Sectionals 100% 4.9 105 0.1 0.6 9.7 89.6



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Raven King 99.8% 77.3 99.8% 99.8%
Cade Jones 34.3% 130.4 34.3% 34.3%
Jake Hesting 0.2% 147.2 0.2% 0.2%
Lane Stetzel 0.2% 153.5 0.2% 0.2%
Kyler Dale 0.0% 157.5 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Raven King 100% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 6.9 8.4 9.2 9.1 9.1 7.9 7.5 6.9 5.9 5.0 4.4 4.2 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.5 0.9 100.0%
Cade Jones 100% 30.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.8 100.0%
Jake Hesting 100% 39.6 100.0%
Lane Stetzel 100% 40.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kyler Dale 100% 42.3 0.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Raven King 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 8.9 12.1 13.2 12.6 10.4 8.9 8.0 6.6 5.4 4.2 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2
Cade Jones 19.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.0 3.4 5.1 8.4 12.0 23.3 22.3 15.5 3.8 0.8 0.2
Jake Hesting 23.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 3.6 9.5 21.8 21.9 17.1
Lane Stetzel 24.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.3 15.1 20.7 20.4
Kyler Dale 25.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.0 8.8 14.9 20.0