Penn
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #24
New Haven Semi-State Rank #7
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #3
Riley Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 19th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 1.1%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season Rating NIC Stomp Penn Invitational Manchester Invitational Wildcat Classic Minutemen Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/11 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 405 405 322 299 346 577 482 523 467 438 408 415
Team Adjusted Rating 405 322 299 303 491 399 438 457 438 408 415
State RankRunnerSeason Rating NIC Stomp Penn Invitational Manchester Invitational Wildcat Classic Minutemen Invitational New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational NIC / NLC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
59  Mariano Retzloff 12 16:22 16:17 16:02 15:56 15:44 16:47 16:12 16:44 16:33 16:37 16:32 16:20
114  Carter Kaser 12 16:39 16:19 16:04 16:01 15:49 17:06 16:58 16:43 16:51
244  Nick Probst 11 17:11 17:26 16:49 17:04 17:11 17:30 17:08 17:11 17:20 17:18 17:01 17:07
257  Jason Juarez 11 17:14 17:20 17:37 16:56 17:48 17:19 17:10 17:13 17:04 17:08 17:14
356  Hudson Kaser 10 17:29 17:24 17:27 17:19 17:07 17:25 17:30 17:40 17:30 17:36 17:31
445  Elijah Poorman 11 17:41 17:28 17:14 17:47 17:44 17:46 17:47 17:36 17:35 17:41 17:50
787  Will Mickelson 10 18:15 18:36 18:58 18:37 18:09 17:55 18:06 18:04 18:06 18:26
902  Logan Cira 9 18:24 18:11 18:07 18:10 18:12 18:26 18:31 18:53
994  Aidan Probst 9 18:31 19:40 19:11 19:11 19:19 18:59 18:40 18:21 18:07
999  Owen McFarland 11 18:32 18:40 18:48 18:37 18:16 18:28
1,020  Joey Rutton 12 18:34 18:32 18:31 18:35
1,066  Jack Ryan 9 18:38 19:30 18:51 18:41 18:35 18:35 18:35 18:25
1,075  Brayden Mammolenti 11 18:39 18:37 18:20 18:12 18:32 18:27 19:00 18:41 19:08
1,145  Noah Schafer 10 18:44 19:05 17:59 18:18 18:22 21:41 20:52 18:26 20:30
1,244  Tyler Rerick 9 18:50 19:06 18:34 18:45 18:54 18:48 18:42 19:03
1,322  Declan O'Donnell 11 18:57 18:57 20:26 19:05 19:04 18:13 19:04 18:41
1,324  Brandon Mueller 10 18:57 19:41 18:53 18:52 19:06 18:55 18:51 18:53
Mikel Cox 10 19:05 19:13 18:55 18:59 19:09 19:16 18:54 19:10
Nate Pratt 11 19:17 18:41 18:35 19:29 22:59
James Schwartz 9 19:32 19:15 20:14 19:41 19:21 19:45 18:41 19:46




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 18.1 450 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.7 4.1 5.8 9.1 11.9 13.9 15.1 13.2 8.5 6.1 3.8 1.7
Semi-State 100% 6.9 217 0.0 0.7 3.2 14.1 25.9 25.3 17.3 8.2 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 3.0 83 1.3 6.9 85.3 6.5 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 28 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 72.4%
Carter Kaser 100% 98.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.8%
Nick Probst 100% 146.6 0.1%
Jason Juarez 100% 151.1 0.0%
Hudson Kaser 100% 168.8 0.0%
Elijah Poorman 100% 181.3 0.0%
Will Mickelson 100% 202.0 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 21.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.1 100.0%
Carter Kaser 100% 32.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.3 100.0%
Nick Probst 100% 61.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
Jason Juarez 100% 65.9 99.7%
Hudson Kaser 100% 84.2 94.8%
Elijah Poorman 100% 100.9 74.6%
Will Mickelson 100% 143.2 2.4%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 100% 6.1 0.1 0.7 1.6 5.8 16.4 23.1 25.3 14.1 7.1 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Carter Kaser 100% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.3 16.0 18.3 16.4 12.6 8.6 6.5 4.5 2.9 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Nick Probst 100% 19.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.5 3.9 5.4 6.5 8.9 9.2 10.0 8.9 9.7 9.0 8.1 6.0 3.9 100.0%
Jason Juarez 100% 20.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.3 3.1 4.6 6.5 7.3 8.5 9.3 10.2 10.6 10.1 8.9 6.2 100.0%
Hudson Kaser 100% 25.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.6 3.7 4.8 6.8 10.4 11.8 100.0%
Elijah Poorman 100% 30.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.8 100.0%
Will Mickelson 100% 50.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mariano Retzloff 1.0 69.4 21.2 8.2 1.0 0.2
Carter Kaser 2.6 2.0 28.6 30.9 30.3 7.3 1.0
Nick Probst 6.1 0.4 2.5 16.2 28.9 29.8 16.6 3.9 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jason Juarez 6.6 0.2 1.2 8.9 21.3 29.5 27.1 7.9 2.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hudson Kaser 8.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.8 15.7 36.1 19.6 10.0 5.0 2.9 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elijah Poorman 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 7.1 20.1 19.4 12.9 9.9 7.8 6.6 4.5 3.7 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Will Mickelson 22.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.3 3.0 4.3 6.3 9.1 9.5 10.1 11.8 10.5 8.0