Zionsville
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #7
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #4
Ben Davis Regional Rank #1
Ben Davis Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 7th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at State Finals 10.4%
Top 10 at State Finals 82.1%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season Rating Dave Bannon Invitational THSB State Preview Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conference Nike Valley Twilight Ben Davis Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/28 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 241 248 244 219 546 236 270 245 219 231 247
Team Adjusted Rating 248 244 219 241 236 270 245 219 231 247
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Dave Bannon Invitational THSB State Preview Eagle Classic RH Flashrock Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conference Nike Valley Twilight Ben Davis Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
40  Will Nobbe 11 16:14 16:03 16:07 16:00 16:12 16:22 16:20 16:14 16:10 16:16
51  Matthew Helton 11 16:18 16:13 16:20 16:06 16:15 16:28 16:12 16:21 16:24 16:18
77  Ryan Handy 11 16:29 16:39 16:39 16:25 16:24 16:33 16:32 16:13 16:33 16:28
98  Samuel Spees 10 16:34 16:40 16:36 16:43 16:39 16:36 16:37 16:23 16:30 16:28
154  Evan Mayo 10 16:53 16:59 16:48 16:52 16:55 17:13 17:01 17:01 16:43 17:09
229  Skyler Cole 11 17:06 17:25 17:14 17:02 16:59 16:59 16:54 17:07 17:06 17:22
238  Decatur Dell 12 17:09 17:09 17:32 17:07 17:01 17:06 17:13 16:55 17:21 17:03
285  Jack Turnbull 9 17:19 17:15 17:14 17:21 17:21 17:13 17:26
326  Joe Spees 10 17:26 17:14 17:22 17:20 17:23 17:23 17:44
348  Michael Schilson 10 17:28 17:35 17:28 17:47 17:30 17:25 17:07
359  Trey Martin 11 17:29 17:26 17:34 17:33 17:24 17:29
563  Caleb Lindsay 12 17:51 18:25 17:46 17:41
589  Elijah Bineyard 10 17:54 18:22 17:59 17:56 17:54 17:46 17:45
604  Dominick Dell 10 17:55 18:09 17:44 17:52 18:05 17:57 17:47
643  Geoffrey Ostrander 12 18:00 17:36 17:46 17:58 18:11 18:15
675  Aidan Cole 9 18:03 18:27 18:19 18:19 17:50 17:54 17:51
750  Charlie Fisher 11 18:10 18:21 18:03 17:56 18:19 18:13 18:11
952  Grant Gogis 10 18:28 18:37 18:30 18:49 18:49 18:13 18:09
978  Niyan Patel 11 18:30 18:12 18:16 18:37 18:51 18:27 18:36
1,003  Brayden Kenworthy 11 18:32 18:17 18:19 18:27 18:19 18:42 19:14
1,062  Fenton Walpole 12 18:38 18:52 18:37 18:27 19:02 18:33 18:31
1,097  Jude Watters 11 18:41 19:30 19:06 18:41 18:28 18:08
1,137  Nolan Toney 10 18:43 19:07 18:51 19:12 18:17 18:19 18:48
John Bailey 9 19:03 19:26 18:50 18:59 19:02 19:05
Jack Mybeck 9 19:08 19:23 18:42 19:17 19:02 19:30 18:58
Joel Albrecht 11 19:09 19:31 19:31 19:48 19:02 18:57 18:37
Jason Fu 12 19:12 19:12 19:12 19:07 19:18
Jack Schilson 12 19:21 19:58 18:51
Nikolas Leachman 12 19:23 19:05 19:58 19:48 18:55
Gabo Tragesser 12 19:29 19:38 19:11 19:10 19:50 19:07 21:11
Carter Miller 9 19:38
Ben Shuster 9 19:39 19:33 19:23 19:35 20:32 19:14 19:57
Luke Smith 10 19:39 19:50 19:46 19:55 19:01 19:44
Ryan Luke 11 19:41 19:20 19:04 20:38 21:18 19:17 19:45
Jackson Barker 12 19:52 20:25 20:02 19:36 20:46 18:58




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 8.3 259 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.8 12.1 22.5 16.6 11.7 8.9 6.2 4.1 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100% 4.4 137 0.4 3.1 12.1 48.5 22.6 8.8 3.2 0.8 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.0 30 99.6 0.4 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 18 100.0 0.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Nobbe 100% 43.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 91.6%
Matthew Helton 100% 52.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 85.3%
Ryan Handy 100% 78.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 54.7%
Samuel Spees 100% 89.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.0%
Evan Mayo 100% 120.7 3.2%
Skyler Cole 100% 141.1 0.1%
Decatur Dell 100% 144.2 0.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Nobbe 100% 15.2 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.4 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.1 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.3 100.0%
Matthew Helton 100% 18.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.5 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 100.0%
Ryan Handy 100% 28.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.7 3.3 3.9 3.7 100.0%
Samuel Spees 100% 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 100.0%
Evan Mayo 100% 54.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Skyler Cole 100% 72.6 100.0%
Decatur Dell 100% 75.4 100.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Nobbe 100% 1.6 30.4 31.8 19.5 9.9 4.8 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Matthew Helton 100% 2.4 13.3 26.0 25.1 16.4 9.4 5.2 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ryan Handy 100% 5.0 0.7 2.9 9.9 17.8 18.3 15.7 13.2 9.4 5.9 3.2 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Samuel Spees 100% 6.3 0.1 0.9 3.6 8.7 14.6 16.7 15.9 14.3 10.5 6.3 3.8 2.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Evan Mayo 100% 11.2 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.3 9.6 12.1 14.0 12.6 11.1 8.2 6.6 4.8 3.7 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Skyler Cole 100% 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.7 5.5 7.5 8.7 9.8 10.1 9.5 8.6 7.7 6.3 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.2 1.5 100.0%
Decatur Dell 100% 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.5 6.3 7.5 8.5 8.8 9.8 9.4 8.3 7.8 6.3 5.2 3.8 2.8 2.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Will Nobbe 1.0 58.4 30.8 8.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Matthew Helton 1.5 28.3 45.6 19.6 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Ryan Handy 3.2 1.9 8.4 34.3 34.5 17.4 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Samuel Spees 4.0 0.3 2.3 15.0 33.9 37.8 8.3 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Evan Mayo 6.0 0.1 0.8 7.8 41.6 27.4 12.2 5.6 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Skyler Cole 8.4 0.2 3.4 15.2 22.1 20.6 15.1 11.5 8.5 2.9 0.5 0.1
Decatur Dell 8.9 0.1 1.7 9.9 18.6 21.5 17.0 13.9 12.1 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0