Carmel
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #1
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #1
Noblesville Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 70.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 99.9%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Zionsville Early Bird Invite (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Flashrock Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Nike Valley Twilight Invitational Noblesville JV Invitational Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/5 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 70 356 52 242 69 68 303 58 554 239 123 77 109
Team Adjusted Rating 65 52 70 69 68 70 58 70 73 83 77 109
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Zionsville Early Bird Invite (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Flashrock Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Nike Valley Twilight Invitational Noblesville JV Invitational Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Kole Mathison 12 15:04 15:06 15:11 15:07 15:09 15:08 15:21 15:01 15:03
Anthony Provenzano 11 15:18 15:37 15:37 15:23 15:20 15:26 15:13 15:11
19  Charlie Leedke 12 15:50 16:03 15:47 15:44 15:58 15:37 15:54 15:56 16:00
37  Jack Capes 10 16:05 16:34 16:01 15:47 16:03 15:59 16:05 16:10 16:07 16:28
43  Thomas Biltimier 11 16:10 16:11 15:59 16:10 16:08 16:05 16:14 16:13 16:24
95  Connor Mallon 12 16:33 16:18 16:50 16:22 16:21 16:37 16:19 16:42 16:34 16:44
110  Kyle Grove 11 16:37 16:59 16:40 16:29 16:48 16:39 16:41 16:36 16:28
122  Kiefer Jay 10 16:41 16:59 16:54 16:51 16:34 16:48 16:34 16:40 16:28 16:57
124  Max Meisner 11 16:43 16:43 16:54 16:39 16:31 17:15 16:53 16:39 16:29
129  Liam Oman 12 16:45 16:44 16:24 16:32 16:53 16:46 16:43 16:57 16:47
130  KJ Sweeney 12 16:45 16:23 16:31 16:37 16:46 16:34 16:33 16:52 16:34 17:11 17:31
200  Carter Buhr 9 17:02 16:54 16:39 16:49 17:01 17:00 17:24 17:04 17:07
203  William Gilhooly 10 17:03 17:02 17:25 17:30 17:36 17:06 16:51 17:06 16:50 16:43
255  Eli Gomez 10 17:11 17:10 17:07 17:20 17:11 17:10
306  Josh Cale 10 17:18 17:29 17:15 17:32 17:21 17:15 17:23 17:16 17:08 17:24
346  Alex Mundt 12 17:24 18:05 17:33 17:18 17:08 17:34 17:38 17:33 17:10
347  Neil Fairman 12 17:24 17:30 17:58 17:11 17:16 17:18 17:11 17:26 17:28 17:35
359  Hayden Nagel 11 17:26 17:19 17:30 17:16 17:10 17:14 17:39 17:56 17:22
523  Deklin Bowser 9 17:46 17:54 18:18 17:41 17:55 17:40 17:37
547  Drew Grogan 11 17:48 17:13 17:35 18:03
625  Julien Gourgue 12 17:55 18:36 17:42 17:47 17:41 17:45 18:33 17:57 18:04
651  Everett Carlisle 12 17:58 17:28 18:42 18:27 18:01 18:07 18:13 17:37 17:28
684  Joel Spittal 11 18:01 17:40 18:21 17:45
791  Cohen Levy 10 18:12 18:38 17:43 18:18 18:46 18:11 18:41 18:02 18:02
818  Hudson Barry 10 18:15 17:53 18:13 18:14 18:15 18:04 18:11 18:02 18:57
850  Isaac Perrin 9 18:17 18:07 18:25 18:16 18:36 18:22 18:05
900  Lito Ledezma 9 18:21 18:08 17:55 18:22 18:25 18:23 18:35
923  Nathan Dierckman 12 18:23 18:43 18:40 18:38 18:11 18:16 18:30 18:14
945  Aidan Lemme 10 18:25 18:48 18:22 18:48 18:47 18:08 18:18 18:10
967  Max Bontrager 10 18:26 18:09 18:36 18:44 18:38 18:24 18:46 18:16 18:10
1,037  Patton Lee 11 18:32 18:33 18:38 18:37 18:13 18:24 19:00 18:23
1,057  Charlie Stuelpe 12 18:33 18:40 18:49 19:22 18:17 18:27 18:13 18:27 18:51
1,092  Grant Lawson 10 18:36 18:04 18:36 18:42 18:30 18:37 18:55
1,143  Ryland Hill 11 18:40 18:10 18:33 18:37 18:40 18:30 18:41 19:00 18:38
1,153  Josh Goedde 12 18:41 18:39 18:43 18:45 18:38 19:02 18:43 18:24
1,157  Noah Yoon 10 18:41 18:34 18:51 18:44 18:38 18:43 18:59 18:39 18:26
1,224  Andrew Cebalo 12 18:46 18:50 19:17 19:55 18:30 19:00 19:00 17:52 18:38
1,227  Andrew Lobue 12 18:46 19:00 19:14 18:41 19:31 18:35 18:09
1,332  Joey Arroyo 11 18:54 17:46 18:43 19:04 18:45 19:02 18:56
Gavin Tosh 11 19:03 19:32 19:30 19:04 18:58 19:01 18:44
Lucas Mallon 10 19:04 18:33 17:51 19:12 17:55 19:30 19:49 19:03
Sebastian Balarezo 9 19:04 18:54 19:22 19:03 19:03 19:15 18:56 19:06
Ben Leveque 9 19:08 18:43 18:52 19:49 19:01 19:25
Zach Flint 9 19:09 19:21 20:22 19:07 19:01 18:48




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 1.4 84 70.0 20.7 6.8 1.8 0.6 0.1
Semi-State 100% 1.4 61 71.2 21.5 6.1 1.3 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.0 35 95.5 4.5 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.1 24 94.7 5.3



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 1.0 73.9 18.2 4.8 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Anthony Provenzano 100% 2.4 3.6 36.1 26.2 12.8 7.9 4.0 2.7 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100% 20.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.3 99.4%
Jack Capes 100% 39.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 86.5%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 47.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 75.8%
Connor Mallon 100% 89.4 0.0 0.0 11.3%
Kyle Grove 100% 96.0 6.5%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 1.0 76.2 18.7 3.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Anthony Provenzano 100% 2.1 3.6 42.9 31.1 11.6 4.9 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100% 11.3 0.7 3.4 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.4 6.7 6.1 6.0 4.9 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 100.0%
Jack Capes 100% 20.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.8 100.0%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 24.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.0 5.6 100.0%
Connor Mallon 100% 44.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 98.8%
Kyle Grove 100% 48.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 97.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 100% 1.0 77.2 19.1 3.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Anthony Provenzano 100% 2.0 4.1 44.8 35.9 10.5 3.3 1.2 0.3 100.0%
Charlie Leedke 100% 6.7 1.2 7.1 11.6 15.5 19.8 22.8 12.2 5.3 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Jack Capes 100% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.1 4.2 8.5 16.9 18.1 15.0 10.8 7.5 5.3 3.7 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.5 8.3 13.9 14.3 13.7 10.8 8.5 6.6 4.8 3.9 3.0 2.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Connor Mallon 100% 21.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.1 4.1 4.8 4.8 6.0 6.4 6.5 7.1 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.4 100.0%
Kyle Grove 100% 23.5 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 4.5 4.9 5.7 5.9 6.7 7.1 6.8 7.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Kole Mathison 1.0 93.6 6.1 0.3 0.0
Anthony Provenzano 1.5 5.6 86.6 6.3 1.5 0.1
Charlie Leedke 4.1 23.2 22.3 32.4 12.9 5.4 2.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Jack Capes 6.8 0.5 3.8 8.1 20.6 22.2 17.0 11.2 6.8 4.2 2.6 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Thomas Biltimier 8.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 9.1 16.9 19.0 15.4 12.2 8.9 5.9 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
Connor Mallon 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.9 6.3 7.3 10.5 11.7 12.4 12.3 12.7 11.6 6.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kyle Grove 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.3 7.4 9.1 10.7 12.7 14.5 15.4 14.7 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0