Chesterton
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
Switch to All-time Team Page

State Rank #19
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #2
Chesterton Regional Rank #2
New Prairie Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 14th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 5.3%
Advance to State Finals 99.6%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Larry James Invitational Rudy Skorupa Invitational Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/14 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 366 351 306 856 405 308 546 336 376 455 343 328
Team Adjusted Rating 351 306 707 405 308 546 336 376 420 343 328
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Larry James Invitational Rudy Skorupa Invitational Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
75  Jackson Tuck 12 16:24 16:40 16:38 16:25 16:24 16:02 16:53 16:18 16:29 16:35 16:20 16:17
82  Evan O'Connor 11 16:27 16:43 16:26 16:32 18:06 16:39 16:21 17:10 16:28 16:39 16:48 16:21 16:20
116  Josh Tuck 12 16:39 17:18 16:29 16:28 18:06 16:47 16:47 17:11 16:33 16:45 16:46 16:41 16:32
156  Bobby Berger 12 16:53 17:16 16:34 16:43 18:05 17:24 16:50 17:22 16:51 16:56 17:07 16:46 16:46
594  Trevor Arlington 11 17:53 18:48 19:13 17:19 19:01 17:38 17:26 18:19 17:39 17:41 19:07
595  Tyler Herzog 11 17:53 18:23 17:53 18:10 19:00 18:12 18:16 18:21 18:17 18:22 17:50 17:45
627  Oliver Wilgocki 11 17:55 18:21 18:23 17:58 19:01 18:08 18:11 18:27 18:23 18:46 18:19 17:46 18:18
795  Raymond Hundt 9 18:12 18:40 18:54 18:19 18:02
1,046  Drew Carpenter 12 18:32 19:01 18:26 18:29 18:25 18:36 18:53 18:30 18:35 18:36 18:27
Matt Long 12 19:41 18:48 18:36 19:04 19:47 19:46 19:01 20:13 23:49
Ezrah Walsh 9 21:48 22:40 18:05 22:43




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 99.6% 14.9 395 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 5.4 9.0 12.9 14.4 13.8 11.5 9.6 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2
Semi-State 100% 2.6 122 5.7 51.5 25.4 11.4 4.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.1 58 7.3 75.2 16.0 1.5
Sectionals 100% 2.1 52 6.0 77.2 15.5 1.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jackson Tuck 99.9% 72.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 68.2% 97.5%
Evan O'Connor 99.8% 77.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0% 96.2%
Josh Tuck 99.6% 99.0 0.0 2.3% 77.4%
Bobby Berger 99.6% 120.3 0.0% 34.8%
Trevor Arlington 99.6% 192.3 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Herzog 99.6% 192.1 0.0% 0.0%
Oliver Wilgocki 99.6% 193.8 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jackson Tuck 100% 8.0 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.6 8.1 9.1 10.1 11.6 10.1 8.6 7.9 6.2 5.1 3.6 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Evan O'Connor 100% 9.2 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.7 5.3 7.2 9.1 9.4 10.5 10.2 8.6 8.1 6.1 5.0 3.7 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Josh Tuck 100% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.7 4.9 6.3 7.2 8.0 9.0 8.4 7.7 6.3 5.5 4.8 4.0 3.4 2.6 2.4 1.7 1.5 100.0%
Bobby Berger 100% 23.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.5 3.1 3.8 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.3 100.0%
Trevor Arlington 100% 104.1 93.0%
Tyler Herzog 100% 104.4 92.5%
Oliver Wilgocki 100% 108.4 89.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jackson Tuck 100% 4.2 1.2 6.3 17.6 21.8 18.3 14.4 10.7 5.5 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Evan O'Connor 100% 4.8 0.7 3.9 11.4 18.4 19.5 16.0 14.3 8.8 4.0 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Josh Tuck 100% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.9 11.5 12.6 18.8 20.3 11.6 7.0 4.0 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Bobby Berger 100% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.4 9.7 17.2 14.7 12.5 10.7 8.0 6.4 4.7 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Trevor Arlington 100% 31.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.2 100.0%
Tyler Herzog 100% 31.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.4 100.0%
Oliver Wilgocki 100% 32.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jackson Tuck 4.0 1.2 6.2 18.6 24.2 18.9 16.2 9.3 3.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Evan O'Connor 4.6 0.8 4.0 12.4 19.5 21.3 17.3 16.1 5.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Josh Tuck 7.3 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.8 13.2 16.6 30.0 13.8 7.4 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bobby Berger 9.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.3 7.5 23.2 16.9 15.2 12.0 7.3 5.7 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Trevor Arlington 24.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.9 8.3 11.1 12.8 13.0
Tyler Herzog 24.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.0 8.3 11.1 12.6 12.7
Oliver Wilgocki 25.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.4 5.7 8.8 10.8 12.2