All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Huntington Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Nothrop Bruin Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
Nike Valley Twilight Invitational |
Northrop Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
Date | | |
8/20 |
8/27 |
9/3 |
9/10 |
9/17 |
9/24 |
10/1 |
10/8 |
10/15 |
10/22 |
Team Rating |
556 | |
529 |
531 |
484 |
746 |
539 |
547 |
516 |
815 |
|
|
Team Adjusted Rating | | |
529 |
510 |
484 |
545 |
539 |
547 |
516 |
651 |
|
|
State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Huntington Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Nothrop Bruin Invitational |
West Noble Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
Nike Valley Twilight Invitational |
Northrop Sectional |
West Noble Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
261 |
Evan McMahon |
10 |
17:12 |
17:32 |
17:20 |
17:18 |
17:08 |
|
17:09 |
17:16 |
17:00 |
17:20 |
17:10 |
|
321 |
Grayson Welch |
12 |
17:20 |
17:12 |
17:07 |
|
17:04 |
|
17:46 |
17:19 |
17:23 |
|
|
|
354 |
Aiden Waugh |
10 |
17:26 |
16:33 |
17:34 |
17:37 |
17:21 |
|
17:16 |
17:15 |
17:16 |
18:19 |
17:10 |
17:42 |
382 |
Riley Lembke |
9 |
17:28 |
|
17:39 |
17:12 |
17:13 |
|
17:23 |
17:27 |
17:56 |
|
|
|
430 |
Cooper Knoblauch |
9 |
17:35 |
|
18:04 |
17:36 |
17:24 |
|
17:35 |
17:38 |
17:31 |
17:49 |
17:26 |
|
562 |
Josh Rodgers |
10 |
17:49 |
17:57 |
17:15 |
17:05 |
18:17 |
|
17:54 |
18:00 |
17:21 |
18:33 |
|
|
580 |
Alex MacDonald |
9 |
17:51 |
|
18:26 |
17:51 |
17:29 |
17:27 |
17:29 |
17:54 |
17:54 |
18:42 |
|
|
587 |
Ayden Cooper |
11 |
17:52 |
17:46 |
17:26 |
17:31 |
17:21 |
|
|
|
18:06 |
18:52 |
|
|
620 |
Ryan Yoder |
10 |
17:55 |
|
|
18:23 |
17:47 |
17:41 |
17:32 |
|
17:54 |
18:14 |
17:57 |
|
804 |
Owen Hill |
10 |
18:12 |
18:44 |
18:26 |
18:28 |
18:29 |
18:00 |
18:00 |
18:15 |
18:07 |
|
|
|
935 |
Gideon Beall |
9 |
18:24 |
|
18:38 |
18:53 |
18:41 |
18:18 |
18:19 |
18:01 |
18:24 |
|
|
|
984 |
Gavin Sanders |
10 |
18:28 |
|
18:40 |
18:57 |
18:24 |
17:58 |
18:31 |
18:18 |
18:38 |
|
|
|
1,111 |
Tyler Hess |
11 |
18:37 |
|
|
18:07 |
19:00 |
18:20 |
18:33 |
18:45 |
18:50 |
|
|
|
1,125 |
Izreal Valdez |
9 |
18:38 |
|
18:37 |
18:11 |
18:16 |
|
19:54 |
18:43 |
18:37 |
|
|
|
1,139 |
Tim Smith |
10 |
18:40 |
18:17 |
18:38 |
18:46 |
|
|
18:57 |
18:26 |
18:38 |
|
|
|
1,154 |
Ethan Widenhoefer |
11 |
18:41 |
18:29 |
18:37 |
18:34 |
18:54 |
18:48 |
18:38 |
18:31 |
18:47 |
|
|
|
|
Britton Shumard |
11 |
19:04 |
18:59 |
18:44 |
18:34 |
18:30 |
18:59 |
19:25 |
19:20 |
19:26 |
|
|
|
|
Reuben Bowie |
11 |
19:11 |
|
18:48 |
|
|
|
|
19:21 |
19:12 |
|
|
|
|
Brendan Malone |
12 |
19:11 |
19:26 |
|
19:43 |
19:20 |
20:26 |
18:55 |
18:50 |
18:59 |
|
|
|
|
Anthony Tomaszewski |
10 |
19:15 |
18:26 |
19:55 |
19:14 |
19:01 |
19:10 |
19:13 |
19:14 |
19:17 |
|
|
|
|
Matthew Norrod |
12 |
19:27 |
19:04 |
19:28 |
19:09 |
19:30 |
20:06 |
19:25 |
19:39 |
19:11 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
State Finals |
4.2% |
21.5 |
524 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
Semi-State |
93.0% |
10.5 |
294 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
3.0 |
10.8 |
10.4 |
10.7 |
11.1 |
11.2 |
10.4 |
9.2 |
7.6 |
5.2 |
2.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regionals |
99.9% |
3.0 |
110 |
3.1 |
45.2 |
25.4 |
13.0 |
6.2 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sectionals |
100% |
2.5 |
82 |
3.3 |
57.6 |
29.5 |
8.7 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance. Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Evan McMahon |
4.2% |
123.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
Grayson Welch |
4.2% |
137.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
Aiden Waugh |
4.2% |
146.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
Riley Lembke |
4.2% |
151.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
Cooper Knoblauch |
4.2% |
163.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
Josh Rodgers |
4.2% |
178.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
Alex MacDonald |
4.2% |
180.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Evan McMahon |
93.9% |
63.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
12.5% |
48.4% |
Grayson Welch |
93.1% |
76.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.3% |
23.9% |
Aiden Waugh |
93.0% |
84.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.4% |
13.3% |
Riley Lembke |
93.0% |
87.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
9.5% |
Cooper Knoblauch |
93.0% |
97.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
3.0% |
Josh Rodgers |
93.0% |
114.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
Alex MacDonald |
93.0% |
116.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Evan McMahon |
100% |
19.2 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.0 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
5.7 |
5.2 |
4.4 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Grayson Welch |
100% |
24.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
6.9 |
6.6 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Aiden Waugh |
100% |
27.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Riley Lembke |
100% |
29.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Cooper Knoblauch |
100.0% |
33.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
83.3% |
100.0% |
Josh Rodgers |
100.0% |
44.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
33.3% |
99.1% |
Alex MacDonald |
100.0% |
46.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
33.3% |
98.8% |
Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Evan McMahon |
11.3 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
6.2 |
8.7 |
10.5 |
11.4 |
12.5 |
11.9 |
9.8 |
7.7 |
5.0 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Grayson Welch |
14.2 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
6.4 |
8.4 |
10.4 |
11.4 |
11.7 |
10.8 |
9.2 |
7.1 |
5.1 |
3.4 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
Aiden Waugh |
16.3 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
4.3 |
6.1 |
8.0 |
9.9 |
11.5 |
11.8 |
10.6 |
9.6 |
6.6 |
4.9 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
Riley Lembke |
17.4 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
6.3 |
7.9 |
9.6 |
11.0 |
12.1 |
10.7 |
9.0 |
7.3 |
4.9 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
1.6 |
Cooper Knoblauch |
20.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
6.6 |
8.5 |
10.7 |
11.5 |
10.8 |
9.5 |
7.8 |
6.4 |
4.5 |
Josh Rodgers |
26.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
7.3 |
8.2 |
8.2 |
Alex MacDonald |
27.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
4.9 |
5.9 |
6.9 |
7.8 |
|