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State Rank #42
New Haven Semi-State Rank #10
West Noble Regional Rank #2
Northrop Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 11th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 4.2%
Advance to Semi-State 93.0%
Advance to Regional 99.9%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Nothrop Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Nike Valley Twilight Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 556 529 531 484 746 539 547 516 815
Team Adjusted Rating 529 510 484 545 539 547 516 651
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Nothrop Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Nike Valley Twilight Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State
261  Evan McMahon 10 17:12 17:32 17:20 17:18 17:08 17:09 17:16 17:00 17:20 17:10
321  Grayson Welch 12 17:20 17:12 17:07 17:04 17:46 17:19 17:23
354  Aiden Waugh 10 17:26 16:33 17:34 17:37 17:21 17:16 17:15 17:16 18:19 17:10 17:42
382  Riley Lembke 9 17:28 17:39 17:12 17:13 17:23 17:27 17:56
430  Cooper Knoblauch 9 17:35 18:04 17:36 17:24 17:35 17:38 17:31 17:49 17:26
562  Josh Rodgers 10 17:49 17:57 17:15 17:05 18:17 17:54 18:00 17:21 18:33
580  Alex MacDonald 9 17:51 18:26 17:51 17:29 17:27 17:29 17:54 17:54 18:42
587  Ayden Cooper 11 17:52 17:46 17:26 17:31 17:21 18:06 18:52
620  Ryan Yoder 10 17:55 18:23 17:47 17:41 17:32 17:54 18:14 17:57
804  Owen Hill 10 18:12 18:44 18:26 18:28 18:29 18:00 18:00 18:15 18:07
935  Gideon Beall 9 18:24 18:38 18:53 18:41 18:18 18:19 18:01 18:24
984  Gavin Sanders 10 18:28 18:40 18:57 18:24 17:58 18:31 18:18 18:38
1,111  Tyler Hess 11 18:37 18:07 19:00 18:20 18:33 18:45 18:50
1,125  Izreal Valdez 9 18:38 18:37 18:11 18:16 19:54 18:43 18:37
1,139  Tim Smith 10 18:40 18:17 18:38 18:46 18:57 18:26 18:38
1,154  Ethan Widenhoefer 11 18:41 18:29 18:37 18:34 18:54 18:48 18:38 18:31 18:47
Britton Shumard 11 19:04 18:59 18:44 18:34 18:30 18:59 19:25 19:20 19:26
Reuben Bowie 11 19:11 18:48 19:21 19:12
Brendan Malone 12 19:11 19:26 19:43 19:20 20:26 18:55 18:50 18:59
Anthony Tomaszewski 10 19:15 18:26 19:55 19:14 19:01 19:10 19:13 19:14 19:17
Matthew Norrod 12 19:27 19:04 19:28 19:09 19:30 20:06 19:25 19:39 19:11




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 4.2% 21.5 524 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9
Semi-State 93.0% 10.5 294 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.0 10.8 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.2 10.4 9.2 7.6 5.2 2.3
Regionals 99.9% 3.0 110 3.1 45.2 25.4 13.0 6.2 3.7 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.5 82 3.3 57.6 29.5 8.7 0.9 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Evan McMahon 4.2% 123.8 0.0% 0.0%
Grayson Welch 4.2% 137.2 0.0% 0.0%
Aiden Waugh 4.2% 146.7 0.0% 0.0%
Riley Lembke 4.2% 151.8 0.0% 0.0%
Cooper Knoblauch 4.2% 163.1 0.0% 0.0%
Josh Rodgers 4.2% 178.9 0.0% 0.0%
Alex MacDonald 4.2% 180.4 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Evan McMahon 93.9% 63.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.5% 48.4%
Grayson Welch 93.1% 76.2 2.3% 23.9%
Aiden Waugh 93.0% 84.1 0.4% 13.3%
Riley Lembke 93.0% 87.0 0.0% 9.5%
Cooper Knoblauch 93.0% 97.4 0.0% 3.0%
Josh Rodgers 93.0% 114.4 0.0% 0.1%
Alex MacDonald 93.0% 116.4 0.0% 0.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Evan McMahon 100% 19.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.7 5.0 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.6 5.7 5.2 4.4 100.0% 100.0%
Grayson Welch 100% 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 3.8 4.4 5.2 5.7 6.3 6.5 6.9 6.6 100.0% 100.0%
Aiden Waugh 100% 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.7 100.0% 100.0%
Riley Lembke 100% 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.5 5.5 100.0% 100.0%
Cooper Knoblauch 100.0% 33.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.1 83.3% 100.0%
Josh Rodgers 100.0% 44.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 33.3% 99.1%
Alex MacDonald 100.0% 46.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 33.3% 98.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Evan McMahon 11.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.2 8.7 10.5 11.4 12.5 11.9 9.8 7.7 5.0 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Grayson Welch 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.5 6.4 8.4 10.4 11.4 11.7 10.8 9.2 7.1 5.1 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2
Aiden Waugh 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.5 4.3 6.1 8.0 9.9 11.5 11.8 10.6 9.6 6.6 4.9 3.7 2.6 1.6 1.0
Riley Lembke 17.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.5 4.2 6.3 7.9 9.6 11.0 12.1 10.7 9.0 7.3 4.9 3.5 2.4 1.6
Cooper Knoblauch 20.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.8 3.1 4.1 6.6 8.5 10.7 11.5 10.8 9.5 7.8 6.4 4.5
Josh Rodgers 26.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 4.8 5.6 7.3 8.2 8.2
Alex MacDonald 27.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.5 4.9 5.9 6.9 7.8