Leo
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #48
New Haven Semi-State Rank #15
West Noble Regional Rank #5
Northrop Sectional Rank #5
Most Likely Finish 10th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.5%
Advance to Semi-State 67.6%
Advance to Regional 98.3%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating DeKalb Preseason Invitational (4k) Huntington Invitational Baron Classic Marion Invitational Minuteman Classic West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational NE8 Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/16 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 585 531 553 611 582 593 538 666 716 647 650 635
Team Adjusted Rating 531 553 607 582 584 538 591 716 604 591 600
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating DeKalb Preseason Invitational (4k) Huntington Invitational Baron Classic Marion Invitational Minuteman Classic West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational NE8 Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
51  Luke Shappell 12 16:14 16:06 16:34 16:18 16:25 16:31 16:08 16:25 16:01 16:35 16:18 16:10 16:05 16:16
190  Jaydon Steidinger 11 17:00 16:52 17:16 16:55 17:08 16:54 17:08 16:48 16:51 17:06 16:53 16:53 17:29
558  Austin Johnson 11 17:49 18:21 17:45 18:28 17:58 18:03 17:55 17:52 17:50 17:44 17:42 17:38 17:48
702  David Sell 12 18:03 17:20 17:37 20:47
728  Jiler Gould 9 18:05 19:24 19:31 19:27 19:03 19:17 19:24 19:00 18:49 18:44 18:30 17:55
846  Will Lashure 10 18:17 19:31 17:50 18:57 18:06 18:02 17:55 17:50 18:36 18:47 18:29
868  Fernando Flores 11 18:19 18:06 18:23 17:56 17:57 17:43 18:10 17:41 18:48 18:28 18:51 18:37
1,140  Jace Donahey 10 18:40 17:57 18:21 19:13 18:42 18:38 18:25 18:43 18:37 19:11
1,340  Brayden Gustafson 11 18:55 17:29 17:42 18:02 18:53 18:55 18:24 19:32 18:58 20:04
Austin Parmerlee 11 19:29 20:02 19:44 19:38 18:57 19:53 19:22 19:24 19:17 19:48




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.5% 20.9 505 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 67.6% 11.0 301 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.4 8.3 10.7 10.7 9.9 7.8 5.2 3.4 1.4
Regionals 98.3% 4.8 135 0.1 6.3 14.8 23.0 23.5 16.8 9.0 4.1 0.8
Sectionals 100% 3.6 103 0.0 8.7 29.8 51.0 8.8 1.7 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Shappell 96.3% 53.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 96.3% 96.3%
Jaydon Steidinger 1.3% 100.0 0.9% 1.1%
Austin Johnson 0.5% 172.0 0.0% 0.0%
David Sell 0.5% 185.0 0.0% 0.0%
Jiler Gould 0.5% 186.7 0.0% 0.0%
Will Lashure 0.5% 194.0 0.0% 0.0%
Fernando Flores 0.5% 196.0 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Shappell 100% 8.3 0.2 0.9 2.8 6.3 9.1 9.4 9.5 9.1 7.8 7.0 6.8 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 100.0% 100.0%
Jaydon Steidinger 89.1% 45.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 66.5% 85.1%
Austin Johnson 67.6% 110.0 0.0% 0.3%
David Sell 67.6% 127.9 0.0% 0.0%
Jiler Gould 67.6% 130.5 0.0% 0.0%
Will Lashure 67.6% 143.5 0.0% 0.0%
Fernando Flores 67.6% 144.5 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Shappell 100% 1.6 1.8 75.1 13.8 4.8 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0% 100.0%
Jaydon Steidinger 100% 13.5 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.2 2.7 3.8 5.2 6.5 7.3 7.9 8.6 8.2 7.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 3.9 3.6 3.0 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.1 100.0% 100.0%
Austin Johnson 99.9% 44.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 94.6% 99.2%
David Sell 99.1% 55.1 0.0 43.5% 90.2%
Jiler Gould 98.7% 56.7 0.0 25.0% 87.1%
Will Lashure 98.4% 63.9 1.8% 57.8%
Fernando Flores 98.4% 64.6 1.8% 54.7%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Shappell 1.0 80.7 13.4 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jaydon Steidinger 7.9 0.6 2.5 4.3 7.4 10.2 12.7 13.4 12.9 10.3 8.0 6.2 4.1 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Austin Johnson 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.8 6.6 6.8 7.8
David Sell 32.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.2
Jiler Gould 33.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7
Will Lashure 39.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Fernando Flores 39.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1