All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp |
Penn Invitational |
Manchester Invitational |
Wildcat Classic |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
NLC / NIC |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/20 |
8/27 |
9/3 |
9/10 |
9/17 |
9/24 |
10/1 |
10/8 |
10/15 |
10/22 |
10/29 |
| Team Rating |
353 | |
495 |
374 |
370 |
292 |
394 |
379 |
354 |
377 |
385 |
387 |
348 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
495 |
374 |
370 |
292 |
394 |
366 |
354 |
356 |
359 |
387 |
348 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp |
Penn Invitational |
Manchester Invitational |
Wildcat Classic |
New Prairie Invitational |
New Haven Invitational |
NLC / NIC |
Riley Sectional |
Elkhart Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 100 |
Hudson Kaser |
11 |
16:35 |
17:05 |
16:58 |
16:48 |
16:39 |
16:33 |
16:45 |
16:48 |
16:49 |
16:56 |
16:57 |
16:26 |
16:41 |
| 118 |
Nick Probst |
12 |
16:40 |
16:56 |
17:04 |
16:49 |
16:41 |
16:30 |
16:44 |
16:48 |
16:34 |
16:40 |
16:35 |
16:36 |
16:41 |
| 191 |
Matt Givens |
10 |
17:00 |
|
17:11 |
17:00 |
17:16 |
16:49 |
17:00 |
16:51 |
16:57 |
16:47 |
16:53 |
17:30 |
17:16 |
| 194 |
Brandon Mueller |
11 |
17:01 |
18:17 |
17:34 |
17:21 |
17:08 |
16:53 |
18:01 |
17:02 |
17:02 |
16:59 |
16:58 |
16:51 |
16:55 |
| 198 |
Jack Ryan |
10 |
17:01 |
18:02 |
17:28 |
16:52 |
16:43 |
16:36 |
17:24 |
|
16:58 |
|
|
17:15 |
17:01 |
| 210 |
Will Mickelson |
11 |
17:05 |
17:50 |
17:48 |
17:09 |
18:08 |
16:51 |
16:58 |
17:12 |
17:25 |
17:17 |
17:21 |
17:30 |
16:58 |
| 443 |
Mikel Cox |
11 |
17:38 |
18:39 |
17:51 |
17:38 |
17:22 |
17:14 |
17:35 |
17:40 |
17:47 |
17:28 |
17:55 |
|
|
| 519 |
Noah Schafer |
11 |
17:46 |
18:19 |
17:42 |
17:49 |
17:41 |
17:31 |
17:51 |
17:40 |
17:46 |
17:58 |
|
|
|
| 574 |
Jason Juarez |
12 |
17:51 |
17:00 |
17:39 |
17:48 |
|
17:35 |
18:14 |
17:48 |
17:58 |
|
|
|
|
| 577 |
Kush Grewel |
9 |
17:51 |
|
18:13 |
18:12 |
18:03 |
18:08 |
17:53 |
17:41 |
17:48 |
|
17:37 |
17:41 |
18:53 |
| 609 |
Aidan Probst |
10 |
17:54 |
17:55 |
18:12 |
17:34 |
18:01 |
17:54 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 642 |
Elijah Poorman |
12 |
17:57 |
17:26 |
18:11 |
17:43 |
17:39 |
17:43 |
19:20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 688 |
Tyler Rerick |
10 |
18:02 |
18:13 |
18:06 |
17:48 |
17:43 |
17:56 |
18:05 |
18:20 |
18:06 |
|
|
|
|
| 821 |
Nate Pratt |
12 |
18:15 |
19:01 |
17:55 |
19:09 |
18:11 |
18:21 |
17:51 |
18:10 |
18:29 |
|
|
|
|
| 861 |
Shahmeer Turk |
|
18:18 |
|
18:19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,106 |
Brayden Mammolenti |
12 |
18:37 |
18:23 |
18:38 |
18:45 |
18:51 |
18:49 |
18:27 |
|
18:27 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,209 |
Ben Reihl |
10 |
18:45 |
|
19:00 |
18:59 |
18:35 |
18:51 |
18:39 |
18:33 |
18:51 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,327 |
Gavin Belzowski |
9 |
18:54 |
|
19:14 |
19:06 |
18:36 |
19:08 |
18:53 |
18:33 |
19:01 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,330 |
Jack Scalise |
10 |
18:54 |
|
18:42 |
19:09 |
18:33 |
18:29 |
19:01 |
19:10 |
18:59 |
|
|
|
|
|
Luke Petras |
9 |
19:09 |
|
18:43 |
18:33 |
|
|
19:24 |
19:12 |
19:23 |
|
|
|
|
|
Noah Koroscil |
10 |
19:09 |
|
19:26 |
19:33 |
19:13 |
19:38 |
18:39 |
18:57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Braxton Bontrager |
9 |
19:14 |
|
20:04 |
19:37 |
18:55 |
18:51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brett Spriggs |
9 |
19:18 |
|
20:03 |
20:02 |
19:35 |
|
19:12 |
19:04 |
18:53 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
98.3% |
15.3 |
403 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
3.3 |
5.8 |
7.2 |
10.0 |
11.0 |
11.5 |
10.2 |
9.8 |
7.8 |
6.3 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
| Semi-State |
100% |
3.7 |
141 |
1.7 |
14.8 |
34.6 |
25.0 |
14.4 |
7.8 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
2.0 |
70 |
17.8 |
61.6 |
19.7 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
29 |
98.8 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Hudson Kaser |
98.4% |
92.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
1.2% |
39.9% |
| Nick Probst |
98.3% |
100.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
26.2% |
| Matt Givens |
98.3% |
132.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
1.1% |
| Brandon Mueller |
98.3% |
133.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.9% |
| Jack Ryan |
98.3% |
134.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
1.0% |
| Will Mickelson |
98.3% |
140.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.4% |
| Mikel Cox |
98.3% |
181.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Hudson Kaser |
100% |
21.4 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Nick Probst |
100% |
25.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Matt Givens |
100% |
47.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
|
99.8% |
| Brandon Mueller |
100% |
47.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
99.7% |
| Jack Ryan |
100% |
49.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
|
99.7% |
| Will Mickelson |
100% |
54.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
99.4% |
| Mikel Cox |
100% |
100.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
47.3% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Hudson Kaser |
100% |
7.8 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
3.8 |
6.3 |
10.1 |
14.3 |
17.2 |
15.7 |
11.4 |
7.2 |
4.6 |
2.7 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Nick Probst |
100% |
9.0 |
|
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
3.1 |
5.6 |
8.9 |
13.8 |
16.1 |
14.9 |
11.6 |
7.5 |
5.4 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Matt Givens |
100% |
16.7 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
4.3 |
5.5 |
7.1 |
7.9 |
7.5 |
8.3 |
7.8 |
7.4 |
7.0 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Brandon Mueller |
100% |
17.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
5.3 |
6.6 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
8.4 |
7.9 |
6.8 |
6.1 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Jack Ryan |
100% |
17.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
6.4 |
7.1 |
8.1 |
8.0 |
7.6 |
7.3 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
6.1 |
5.3 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
3.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Will Mickelson |
100% |
19.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
4.7 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
7.1 |
7.6 |
7.1 |
7.3 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
6.0 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Mikel Cox |
100% |
34.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Hudson Kaser |
2.5 |
0.0 |
28.7 |
42.2 |
21.7 |
5.6 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nick Probst |
3.2 |
0.0 |
11.4 |
29.1 |
39.6 |
13.8 |
3.9 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Matt Givens |
7.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
12.4 |
17.7 |
17.4 |
15.3 |
12.7 |
8.5 |
5.8 |
3.9 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brandon Mueller |
7.1 |
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
12.3 |
16.3 |
18.3 |
15.4 |
12.5 |
8.9 |
6.2 |
3.7 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jack Ryan |
7.3 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.9 |
9.8 |
15.5 |
17.2 |
16.2 |
14.0 |
9.3 |
6.8 |
4.6 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Will Mickelson |
8.4 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.7 |
4.5 |
9.2 |
12.5 |
16.4 |
16.4 |
12.8 |
10.2 |
7.7 |
4.6 |
3.1 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mikel Cox |
16.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
4.7 |
8.1 |
13.2 |
18.5 |
22.2 |
17.0 |
9.3 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
