Carmel
Boys - Girls
2022 - 2023 - 2024
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State Rank #1
Brownsburg Regional Rank #1
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 79.7%
Top 5 at State Finals 99.4%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Flashrock Invite Golden Bear Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Nike XC Town Twilight HSE/Noblesville JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
Date 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/4 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 117 89 244 166 210 548 134 108 925 368 113 111 100
Team Adjusted Rating 89 112 119 123 117 134 108 117 117 113 111 100
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Eagle Classic Flashrock Invite Golden Bear Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Nike XC Town Twilight HSE/Noblesville JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
Anthony Provenzano 12 15:26 15:10 15:13 15:25 15:28 15:27 15:31 15:34 15:27
Kyle Grove 12 15:41 16:28 15:38 15:43 15:38 15:37 15:44 15:45 15:39
24  Thomas Biltimier 12 16:02 16:02 16:02 16:06 16:12 16:00 16:06 16:00 15:55
53  Jack Capes 11 16:18 15:52 16:36 16:39 16:20 16:22 16:08 16:15 16:11
80  Kiefer Jay 11 16:28 16:21 16:10 16:12 16:39 16:36 16:25 16:23 16:38
81  Carter Buhr 10 16:29 16:41 16:10 16:33 16:30 16:33 16:19 16:53 16:22
98  Max Meisner 12 16:33 16:29 17:02 16:33 16:42 16:24 16:36 16:25 16:28
107  Jonah Kaul 9 16:36 16:38 16:24 16:36 16:25 16:42 16:42 16:35
128  Joel Spittal 12 16:41 17:14 16:38 16:26 16:41 16:36 16:34 16:59 16:49
215  Deklin Bowser 10 16:58 17:25 16:46 16:36 16:33 16:51 17:17 17:40
233  Josh Cale 11 17:00 17:03 16:51 16:45 16:57 16:48 16:59 17:17 17:14
242  William Gilhooly IV 11 17:02 16:59 17:15 16:57 16:55
362  Eli Gomez 11 17:21 16:57 17:00 17:02 17:29 17:32 17:47 17:30 16:52
416  Cohen Levy 11 17:29 17:20 17:14 17:37 17:34 17:25 17:22 17:16 18:23
459  Drew Grogan 12 17:34 17:17 17:10 18:03
482  Lucas Bartlett 9 17:37 18:02 18:03 17:39 17:25 17:31 17:37 17:25
512  Joey Arroyo 12 17:40 18:45 17:22 17:35 17:41 17:32 17:48 17:53
521  Hayden Nagel 12 17:41 17:17 17:33 17:34 17:33 18:01 17:34 17:22 18:24
537  Julien Gourgue 12 17:44 17:37 17:30 17:46 17:37 17:47 17:54 17:44
582  Ben Meisner 9 17:49 17:54 18:20 17:40 17:34 17:48 17:51
630  Lucas Mallon 11 17:54 17:52 18:36 17:45 17:42
662  Isaac Perrin 10 17:56 17:56 17:49 18:15 17:55 17:49 17:54 18:01 17:52
863  Zach Flint 10 18:14 18:46 18:35 18:29 18:16 18:16 18:06 17:59 18:09
949  Amory Spence 11 18:22 18:43 19:06 18:16 18:18 18:19 18:06 18:19
961  Patton Lee 12 18:23 18:22 18:27 18:21 18:21 18:29 18:17
975  Max Bontrager 11 18:24 18:11 18:24 18:36 18:18 18:35 18:11 18:04 18:45
1,007  Noah Yoon 11 18:26 18:25 17:57 20:59 18:28 18:24 18:41
1,116  Trevor Walton 9 18:35 18:29 18:59 18:37 18:33 18:26 18:31
1,119  Andrew Huitsing 11 18:35 18:27 18:48 18:42 18:32 18:47 18:11 18:36
1,204  Ishan Choudhary 11 18:42 21:21 19:11 18:23 18:39 18:43
1,208  Fahed Badreddine 9 18:43 18:59 18:40 18:30 18:45 20:02
1,214  Nick Diehl 9 18:43 19:14 19:03 19:04 18:36 18:17 18:16 18:51
1,270  Grant Lawson 11 18:48 18:20 20:17 19:50 18:54 18:40 18:28 18:21 19:15
1,291  Sebastian Balarezo 10 18:50 18:42 18:51 19:01 18:47 18:44 18:35 19:03 18:47
1,296  Dominic Riego 11 18:50 18:38 19:18 18:42 18:43 18:55
1,326  Quinn Brogan 11 18:53 19:37 19:17 18:59 18:33 18:35 18:50
1,360  Lito Ledezma 10 18:56 17:59 19:31 18:30
1,368  Ryland Hill 12 18:56 18:31 19:01 19:08 19:13 19:04 18:18 18:19 19:17
Gavin Tosh 12 19:11 18:53 19:56 20:00 19:28 18:48 18:52 19:00
Ryan Finkbeiner 11 19:17 19:19 19:41 19:40 19:13 19:10 19:00
John Norton 9 19:51 21:40 20:33 20:14 20:56 19:19 18:50 19:45




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 1.3 107 79.7 13.0 4.1 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.2
Regionals 100% 1.1 40 93.8 5.4 0.8 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 27 95.9 4.1 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Anthony Provenzano 100% 3.3 10.5 15.5 18.1 18.5 13.0 7.2 5.7 2.8 2.6 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Kyle Grove 100% 8.6 0.2 1.1 2.5 5.6 9.1 10.0 8.6 8.5 7.8 6.4 5.9 5.0 4.2 3.4 3.7 2.7 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 100.0%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 27.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.9 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.0 100.0%
Jack Capes 100% 56.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 99.0%
Kiefer Jay 100% 84.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 91.8%
Carter Buhr 100% 86.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 90.2%
Max Meisner 100% 99.9 0.1 0.1 85.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Anthony Provenzano 100% 1.4 26.0 58.8 9.6 3.6 1.4 0.5 0.3 100.0%
Kyle Grove 100% 3.0 0.5 7.8 43.2 18.3 13.7 7.5 4.2 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Thomas Biltimier 100% 8.0 0.5 5.5 7.7 10.4 12.6 13.2 11.9 9.6 7.1 5.6 4.7 2.7 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Jack Capes 100% 15.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 2.4 3.9 7.0 6.8 7.4 6.5 7.6 6.8 6.7 6.2 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.6 3.7 3.0 2.2 2.0 100.0%
Kiefer Jay 100% 22.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.7 3.2 4.2 4.1 4.7 5.4 4.3 5.5 4.6 5.1 4.5 6.0 5.0 100.0%
Carter Buhr 100% 22.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 2.5 2.2 2.3 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.5 100.0%
Max Meisner 100% 26.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.8 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.7 5.0 6.0 5.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Anthony Provenzano 1.0 86.2 9.0 4.0 0.9 0.1
Kyle Grove 1.8 4.7 58.7 17.0 16.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Thomas Biltimier 4.6 0.2 13.5 13.5 38.0 18.8 9.5 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1
Jack Capes 7.5 0.3 1.6 3.7 15.1 19.9 17.8 13.6 10.4 7.9 5.3 3.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2
Kiefer Jay 11.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 5.2 8.6 11.2 10.8 12.2 13.7 13.8 9.2 7.0 3.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1
Carter Buhr 10.9 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.0 7.7 10.9 12.1 13.7 12.8 11.9 9.6 7.6 4.0 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
Max Meisner 12.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.9 3.3 4.9 8.9 10.2 13.4 12.9 14.9 14.6 6.9 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.1