All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Kickoff |
Larry James Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
NLC Round Robin #1 |
Minutemen Classic |
NLC Round Robin 2 |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Elkhart Sectional |
New Prairie Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/13 |
8/19 |
8/26 |
8/29 |
9/9 |
9/12 |
9/16 |
9/23 |
9/30 |
10/14 |
10/21 |
10/28 |
| Team Rating |
303 | |
336 |
319 |
|
261 |
686 |
358 |
312 |
314 |
301 |
346 |
290 |
319 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
336 |
319 |
|
261 |
303 |
358 |
312 |
314 |
301 |
346 |
290 |
319 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Kickoff |
Larry James Invitational |
Penn Invitational |
NLC Round Robin #1 |
Minutemen Classic |
NLC Round Robin 2 |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Northern Lakes Conference |
Elkhart Sectional |
New Prairie Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 71 |
Baylor Miller |
10 |
16:25 |
15:52 |
16:21 |
16:30 |
|
16:23 |
|
16:47 |
16:29 |
16:40 |
16:39 |
16:39 |
16:33 |
16:19 |
| 103 |
Marc Hernandez |
11 |
16:34 |
16:52 |
16:43 |
16:24 |
|
16:30 |
|
17:01 |
16:39 |
16:33 |
16:38 |
16:48 |
16:25 |
16:34 |
| 170 |
Joe Keyser |
11 |
16:50 |
17:05 |
17:04 |
16:44 |
|
16:39 |
|
16:58 |
16:57 |
16:40 |
16:47 |
16:57 |
16:43 |
16:45 |
| 174 |
Xavier Miller |
10 |
16:51 |
16:50 |
16:49 |
17:03 |
|
16:48 |
|
16:55 |
16:47 |
16:51 |
16:48 |
16:54 |
16:49 |
16:45 |
| 180 |
David Gingerich |
12 |
16:52 |
16:28 |
17:03 |
17:03 |
|
16:26 |
|
16:45 |
16:48 |
16:57 |
16:38 |
16:53 |
16:46 |
17:17 |
| 377 |
Brady Hicks |
10 |
17:23 |
17:05 |
17:19 |
17:34 |
|
17:49 |
17:30 |
17:15 |
17:25 |
18:04 |
17:22 |
17:06 |
17:30 |
17:17 |
| 441 |
Travin Schlabach |
12 |
17:33 |
17:19 |
|
17:46 |
|
17:09 |
17:37 |
17:30 |
17:31 |
17:27 |
17:21 |
17:30 |
17:52 |
17:36 |
| 535 |
Milo Bullaro |
9 |
17:44 |
|
|
18:00 |
17:42 |
18:06 |
17:37 |
17:14 |
17:49 |
17:42 |
|
|
|
|
| 756 |
Colin Mack |
11 |
18:04 |
18:02 |
18:37 |
17:57 |
|
17:15 |
17:49 |
17:49 |
18:00 |
18:25 |
18:34 |
|
|
|
| 820 |
David Miller |
12 |
18:10 |
18:06 |
17:58 |
17:57 |
|
17:53 |
18:09 |
18:10 |
|
18:06 |
18:58 |
|
|
|
| 959 |
Carter Adams |
12 |
18:23 |
18:38 |
19:16 |
18:42 |
|
18:31 |
18:06 |
18:15 |
18:18 |
18:15 |
18:28 |
|
|
|
| 1,268 |
Parker Johnson |
11 |
18:48 |
|
|
19:35 |
18:43 |
18:42 |
18:50 |
18:38 |
18:38 |
18:55 |
18:44 |
|
|
|
| 1,281 |
Max Estep |
12 |
18:49 |
18:37 |
19:16 |
18:43 |
|
18:08 |
18:40 |
18:49 |
18:32 |
19:14 |
19:02 |
|
|
|
|
Groover Colton |
10 |
19:19 |
20:09 |
18:55 |
19:25 |
|
18:57 |
19:58 |
18:41 |
19:24 |
19:19 |
19:32 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
15.3 |
376 |
|
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
6.1 |
7.0 |
6.1 |
6.7 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
7.2 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
| Regionals |
100% |
2.8 |
135 |
26.9 |
22.2 |
20.8 |
13.4 |
10.9 |
3.8 |
1.5 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.1 |
41 |
95.0 |
5.0 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Baylor Miller |
100% |
76.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
89.8% |
| Marc Hernandez |
100% |
102.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
71.5% |
| Joe Keyser |
100% |
154.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
23.2% |
| Xavier Miller |
100% |
157.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20.7% |
| David Gingerich |
100% |
160.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17.0% |
| Brady Hicks |
100% |
218.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Travin Schlabach |
100% |
227.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Baylor Miller |
100% |
15.1 |
|
|
|
|
0.5 |
1.1 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
5.7 |
7.4 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.9 |
8.0 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
4.3 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
1.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Marc Hernandez |
100% |
19.9 |
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
6.3 |
5.8 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Joe Keyser |
100% |
33.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Xavier Miller |
100% |
35.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
|
100.0% |
| David Gingerich |
100% |
36.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Brady Hicks |
100% |
71.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Travin Schlabach |
100% |
82.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Baylor Miller |
4.4 |
|
0.6 |
3.2 |
25.1 |
48.3 |
17.5 |
3.3 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Marc Hernandez |
5.6 |
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
4.5 |
19.8 |
46.0 |
14.0 |
8.5 |
3.8 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Joe Keyser |
8.7 |
|
|
|
|
0.6 |
3.9 |
16.4 |
17.7 |
17.5 |
13.4 |
9.8 |
7.9 |
5.9 |
3.8 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Xavier Miller |
9.1 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
2.6 |
13.5 |
15.2 |
16.6 |
14.9 |
12.2 |
9.3 |
7.5 |
4.6 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| David Gingerich |
9.3 |
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
2.1 |
11.0 |
14.8 |
17.5 |
13.9 |
13.3 |
10.3 |
8.2 |
4.7 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brady Hicks |
17.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
2.8 |
4.8 |
6.9 |
11.8 |
12.0 |
13.6 |
13.7 |
10.3 |
7.9 |
4.7 |
3.9 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
| Travin Schlabach |
20.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
5.4 |
9.3 |
10.7 |
11.8 |
11.2 |
11.3 |
9.0 |
6.2 |
5.1 |
|
