All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
John Cleland Invitational (4k) |
Brownsburg Invitational |
Brown County Eagle Classic |
South Knox Invite |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
Nike Twilight |
Brownsburg JV Invite |
Ben Davis Sectional |
Brownsburg Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/24 |
9/7 |
9/14 |
9/21 |
9/28 |
10/5 |
10/12 |
10/19 |
10/26 |
11/2 |
| Team Rating |
349 | |
309 |
322 |
497 |
378 |
348 |
335 |
821 |
386 |
353 |
347 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
309 |
322 |
417 |
313 |
348 |
335 |
349 |
372 |
347 |
347 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
John Cleland Invitational (4k) |
Brownsburg Invitational |
Brown County Eagle Classic |
South Knox Invite |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
Nike Twilight |
Brownsburg JV Invite |
Ben Davis Sectional |
Brownsburg Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 47 |
Zach Risner |
12 |
16:11 |
16:03 |
16:02 |
16:07 |
|
|
16:04 |
16:05 |
|
16:29 |
16:19 |
16:06 |
| 122 |
Quinn Murray |
10 |
16:37 |
17:40 |
16:56 |
16:44 |
16:52 |
16:40 |
16:43 |
16:49 |
|
16:38 |
16:40 |
16:30 |
| 208 |
Colin Packer |
11 |
16:56 |
17:19 |
16:49 |
16:55 |
17:41 |
16:45 |
17:11 |
17:10 |
|
17:07 |
16:54 |
16:48 |
| 286 |
Dean Semski |
11 |
17:08 |
|
16:52 |
17:14 |
17:20 |
|
17:33 |
17:22 |
|
|
16:59 |
17:10 |
| 335 |
Chase Childress |
12 |
17:16 |
18:23 |
17:24 |
17:10 |
17:17 |
17:01 |
17:03 |
17:02 |
|
17:50 |
|
17:26 |
| 354 |
Michael Carson |
10 |
17:18 |
18:17 |
16:58 |
17:06 |
17:28 |
17:01 |
17:48 |
|
18:23 |
|
|
|
| 360 |
Aedan Aspaas |
10 |
17:19 |
17:54 |
17:10 |
17:00 |
17:24 |
17:40 |
17:06 |
17:23 |
|
17:08 |
17:20 |
17:29 |
| 401 |
Maxwell Hunter |
10 |
17:25 |
17:49 |
17:01 |
17:01 |
17:23 |
17:12 |
17:19 |
17:33 |
|
17:34 |
17:54 |
|
| 419 |
Mitchell Ford |
11 |
17:28 |
17:21 |
17:43 |
17:03 |
17:58 |
17:55 |
17:26 |
16:52 |
|
17:19 |
17:20 |
17:44 |
| 597 |
Simon Gerber |
9 |
17:51 |
|
|
18:24 |
17:55 |
17:42 |
17:43 |
20:05 |
17:45 |
|
|
|
| 732 |
Kevin Garcia |
12 |
18:05 |
17:49 |
18:25 |
18:02 |
18:22 |
17:53 |
18:00 |
17:38 |
18:13 |
|
|
|
| 754 |
Isaac Washington |
10 |
18:07 |
18:55 |
18:23 |
18:02 |
17:56 |
18:34 |
18:09 |
17:58 |
18:01 |
|
|
|
| 848 |
Max LeMay |
10 |
18:17 |
18:37 |
18:15 |
18:13 |
18:14 |
17:59 |
18:33 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 893 |
Cooper Fulayter |
12 |
18:20 |
18:41 |
19:08 |
18:00 |
18:25 |
19:36 |
18:17 |
18:28 |
18:07 |
|
|
|
| 949 |
Jayden Christensen |
11 |
18:24 |
18:21 |
|
18:30 |
18:29 |
|
18:13 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,078 |
Dylan Williams |
9 |
18:33 |
|
18:16 |
|
18:57 |
18:25 |
18:40 |
18:19 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,345 |
Julian Tutt |
11 |
18:55 |
|
19:12 |
19:07 |
19:26 |
18:53 |
18:46 |
18:19 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,355 |
Jacob Enz |
11 |
18:56 |
18:29 |
18:56 |
18:42 |
18:45 |
18:55 |
18:46 |
|
19:43 |
|
|
|
| 1,371 |
Fred Wittman |
11 |
18:57 |
|
|
19:47 |
18:54 |
18:33 |
19:01 |
19:11 |
18:33 |
|
|
|
| 1,379 |
Damian Eberle |
9 |
18:58 |
|
18:53 |
18:59 |
18:06 |
|
19:58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ian Foster |
12 |
19:00 |
17:48 |
|
19:25 |
18:40 |
19:24 |
19:07 |
18:43 |
18:50 |
|
|
|
|
Elijah Crowe |
11 |
19:11 |
|
|
|
19:56 |
20:29 |
|
18:54 |
18:13 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
18.7 |
465 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
7.8 |
8.3 |
9.5 |
9.1 |
10.1 |
8.7 |
9.0 |
7.3 |
5.7 |
4.1 |
| Regionals |
100% |
4.8 |
166 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
18.9 |
22.8 |
24.0 |
22.1 |
8.1 |
2.3 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.6 |
79 |
0.1 |
46.9 |
45.1 |
6.8 |
1.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Zach Risner |
100% |
50.4 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
|
99.7% |
| Quinn Murray |
100% |
120.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
68.2% |
| Colin Packer |
100% |
174.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.3% |
| Dean Semski |
100% |
199.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.5% |
| Chase Childress |
100% |
211.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2% |
| Aedan Aspaas |
100% |
214.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
| Maxwell Hunter |
100% |
221.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Zach Risner |
100% |
10.0 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
6.9 |
7.4 |
7.0 |
8.1 |
7.1 |
6.8 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
100.0% |
| Quinn Murray |
100% |
26.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Colin Packer |
100% |
41.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Dean Semski |
100% |
56.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Chase Childress |
100% |
65.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Aedan Aspaas |
100% |
69.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Maxwell Hunter |
100% |
77.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Zach Risner |
5.1 |
0.2 |
3.5 |
15.7 |
13.0 |
15.7 |
14.0 |
11.7 |
12.6 |
8.0 |
3.7 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quinn Murray |
11.1 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
8.1 |
14.4 |
15.8 |
15.0 |
13.1 |
10.6 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Colin Packer |
15.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
4.1 |
6.6 |
9.9 |
14.3 |
16.3 |
12.1 |
9.0 |
6.7 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
| Dean Semski |
20.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
2.8 |
5.2 |
7.9 |
9.2 |
9.3 |
8.5 |
8.3 |
7.6 |
8.0 |
6.4 |
6.0 |
| Chase Childress |
24.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
6.3 |
6.2 |
7.6 |
8.5 |
7.7 |
| Aedan Aspaas |
25.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
5.8 |
6.8 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
| Maxwell Hunter |
28.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
5.1 |
|
