Carmel
Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #9
Brownsburg Regional Rank #2
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 1.1%
Top 5 at State Finals 23.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 77.9%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Golden Bear Invitational Culver Invitational Nike Twilight Noblesville JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
Date 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/7 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 215 494 190 231 202 459 218 185 454 430 217 227 230
Team Adjusted Rating 219 190 231 202 230 218 185 232 223 216 227 206
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Golden Bear Invitational Culver Invitational Nike Twilight Noblesville JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
43  Jonah Kaul 10 16:10 16:16 16:20 16:21 16:28 16:30 16:19 16:07 16:15 16:03
62  Jack Capes 12 16:18 16:10 15:56 16:31 16:21 16:09 16:00 16:10 16:21 16:58
86  Carter Buhr 11 16:26 16:15 16:38 16:34 16:17 16:23 16:10 16:33 16:32 16:19
104  Kiefer Jay 12 16:33 16:21 16:19 16:15 16:17 16:25 16:51 17:32 17:13
110  Zach Flint 11 16:35 17:59 16:54 16:40 16:51 17:00 16:51 16:52 16:47 16:53 16:46 16:26 16:30
116  William Gilhooly 12 16:36 21:20 17:50 17:10 16:39 16:51 16:41 16:32 16:36 17:09 16:29
135  Deklin Bowser 11 16:39 16:43 16:23 16:44 16:25 16:38 16:32 16:37 16:40 17:04
201  Cohen Levy 12 16:54 17:21 16:57 16:56 17:01 17:12 17:23 16:44 16:55 16:44 16:37 17:14
336  Ben Meisner 10 17:16 17:28 16:39 16:56 17:04 16:48 17:44 17:10 17:26 17:17 17:59
342  Isaac Perrin 11 17:17 17:41 16:56 17:20 17:05 17:02 17:24 17:24 17:36 17:11
375  Lucas Mallon 12 17:21 17:45 17:42 17:39 17:35 17:10 17:18 17:06 17:14
393  Cooper Szotek 10 17:25 17:33 16:48 17:30 17:28 19:14
459  Josh Cale 12 17:34 16:52 17:38 17:34 17:19 17:38 17:12 17:31 17:53
468  Eli Gomez 12 17:35 17:13 17:48 17:39 17:19 17:38 17:34 17:32 17:37 17:25
553  Zachary Judy 10 17:47 17:28 17:31 17:46 17:47 17:40 17:53 17:35 17:50 18:06
602  Trevor Walton 10 17:52 18:13 17:34 17:33 17:42 17:36 18:16 17:57 18:09 17:46
623  Dominic Riego 12 17:53 18:41 17:51 17:47 17:51 17:58 17:22 17:52 17:59 17:51 18:10
661  Cameron Scher-Millan 9 17:58 18:16 18:34 18:07 17:22 18:18 17:51 17:41
670  Grant Vannahmen 9 17:59 17:58 17:49 18:19 17:56 17:54 18:02 17:54 18:01 17:50
677  Amory Spence 12 18:00 18:14 18:18 18:21 17:48 18:27 17:47 17:48 17:57 17:52
685  Max Bontrager 12 18:01 18:15 18:05 18:09 18:10 17:53 17:40 17:54 17:59 18:01 18:05
699  Noah Yoon 12 18:02 18:17 17:52 18:04 18:13 17:58 17:44 17:53 17:58 18:17 18:04
749  Grant Parkevich 9 18:07 18:24 18:12 17:59 18:38 18:07 17:43 18:04 18:03 18:04
959  Luke Lory 10 18:24 19:18 18:44 18:18 18:14 18:15 18:24 18:15
1,012  Neil Adesara 10 18:28 18:04 18:33 18:21 18:22 18:20 18:46 18:34
1,081  Nick Diehl 10 18:34 18:21 18:26 18:46 19:15 18:15 18:33 18:32 18:25 18:33
1,144  Kerolos Khalil 10 18:40 19:00 19:25 18:55 18:47 18:36 18:26 18:18 18:46 18:16
1,164  Nate Gaddy 10 18:41 18:32 19:09 19:04 19:15 19:22 18:14 18:19 18:35 18:19
1,181  Sebastian Balarezo 11 18:43 18:34 18:36 18:11 18:16 18:58 18:49 19:01 18:59 18:17
1,212  Ishan Choudhary 12 18:45 18:33 18:55 19:25 18:19 18:45 17:51 18:40 19:22
1,253  Ryan Finkbeiner 12 18:49 19:08 18:46 19:06 18:43 18:39 18:48 19:03 18:42 18:36 18:52
1,262  Jesus Mejia 11 18:50 18:38 19:05 18:42 18:45 18:47 18:27 19:43
1,268  Nathan Yang 10 18:50 18:08 18:23 19:24 19:31 18:21 18:48 18:57
1,283  Nixon Trisler 9 18:51 18:44 20:27 18:06 18:48 18:28 18:50 18:45 19:10 19:40
1,298  Marcus Primason 10 18:52 19:11 18:40 18:47 18:54 20:02 18:53 18:50 18:48
1,300  Ben Snyder 10 18:52 18:21 20:22 18:53 19:03 19:21 18:28 18:47 18:55
1,336  John Norton 10 18:55 19:27 19:02 20:14 19:03 18:34 18:30 18:51 19:23 18:54
1,381  Grant Lawson 12 18:58 18:39 18:50 18:45 18:39 19:06 19:18
1,399  Jack Sims 10 19:00 18:51 19:27 19:01 19:02 18:57 18:38 19:00 19:00
Isaac Mehle 11 19:10 18:52 19:13 18:47 20:04 19:20 18:52 19:24 18:31 19:29
Hudson Barry 12 19:17 19:16 19:02 19:30 19:24 19:35 18:41




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 8.0 259 1.1 2.5 4.6 6.8 8.0 10.8 11.6 11.7 11.0 9.6 6.8 5.9 3.8 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.9 74 17.7 77.0 4.4 0.7 0.1 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 28 95.7 4.0 0.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 47.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 99.8%
Jack Capes 100% 66.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 98.0%
Carter Buhr 100% 84.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 92.6%
Kiefer Jay 100% 110.6 0.0 0.0 77.8%
Zach Flint 100% 116.6 0.0 72.1%
William Gilhooly 100% 118.9 0.0 69.2%
Deklin Bowser 100% 129.5 60.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 100% 9.4 0.1 1.5 3.2 5.1 6.2 7.1 7.8 7.6 7.7 8.4 7.9 6.8 6.4 6.0 4.7 3.4 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
Jack Capes 100% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.9 4.6 4.6 5.5 6.1 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.0 6.9 6.1 5.6 4.3 4.2 2.7 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.2 100.0%
Carter Buhr 100% 18.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.8 3.7 4.2 5.4 6.1 7.0 6.7 6.8 7.2 6.2 5.7 5.3 4.2 4.3 3.2 100.0%
Kiefer Jay 100% 23.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.3 5.5 5.9 5.5 100.0%
Zach Flint 100% 24.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.0 4.1 4.6 5.3 5.5 6.1 5.4 5.8 100.0%
William Gilhooly 100% 25.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.5 2.7 3.4 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.9 100.0%
Deklin Bowser 100% 28.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.3 4.9 5.0 5.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jonah Kaul 1.7 25.5 34.9 20.4 9.9 5.3 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jack Capes 3.4 4.4 13.1 23.3 21.4 15.1 11.7 5.8 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Carter Buhr 5.4 0.3 2.8 8.1 15.1 17.3 16.4 15.9 10.8 6.0 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kiefer Jay 7.9 0.1 1.0 3.5 7.1 11.6 12.9 15.0 14.9 11.9 9.9 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zach Flint 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 5.0 7.7 11.4 14.3 15.1 14.5 12.3 7.3 4.5 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
William Gilhooly 9.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 4.0 6.8 10.2 13.1 14.3 14.9 13.6 8.9 5.5 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
Deklin Bowser 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.1 3.3 5.9 9.7 13.0 14.5 17.7 14.3 8.3 4.4 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0