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State Rank #8
New Haven Regional Rank #1
Woodlan Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.6%
Top 5 at State Finals 18.5%
Top 10 at State Finals 76.2%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Taylor University Invitational Wildcat Classic Invitational Flashrock Invitational New Haven Classic Nike Twilight New Haven Sectional New Haven Regional State Finals
Date 8/24 8/31 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 205 247 230 200 216 247 221 241 253 215
Team Adjusted Rating 247 195 200 216 247 221 230 244 205
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Taylor University Invitational Wildcat Classic Invitational Flashrock Invitational New Haven Classic Nike Twilight New Haven Sectional New Haven Regional State Finals
28  Evan McMahon 12 15:59 16:20 16:22 16:05 16:12 16:24 16:10 16:16 16:12 15:53
46  Cooper Knoblauch 11 16:11 17:16 16:08 15:59 15:58 16:06 16:12 16:18 16:01 16:12 16:28
65  Jace Trevino 10 16:19 16:37 16:29 16:29 16:38 16:25 16:42 16:34 16:12
84  Aiden Waugh 12 16:25 16:48 16:37 16:10 16:25 16:31 16:29 16:20 16:22 16:37 16:18
213  Aaron Lazoff 10 16:56 17:29 16:55 16:54
254  Riley Lembke 11 17:03 17:28 17:01 16:54 16:59 17:01 17:24
261  Ryan Yoder 12 17:04 17:38 17:14 16:59 16:46 16:56 17:04 17:05 17:04 17:14
277  Tate Knoblauch 9 17:08 17:44 16:51 16:53 17:05 17:15 16:58 17:09 17:13
287  Josh Rodgers 12 17:08 17:08 17:58 17:18 16:49 17:54 16:52 16:56 17:09 17:04 17:05
321  Branson Birkey 10 17:14 18:06 17:29 16:56 17:16
350  Alex MacDonald 11 17:18 17:11 16:53 17:15 17:23 17:32 17:12
425  Jack McMahon 10 17:29 18:14 17:39 17:42 17:32 17:15 17:35 17:17
433  Owen Hill 12 17:30 17:57 17:37 17:29 17:42 17:21 17:24
497  Levi Cordes 9 17:39 17:34 17:39 17:17 18:06 17:35
506  Will Eckert 11 17:40 18:15 17:58 17:42 17:20 17:56 17:31 17:37
620  Andrew Gerber 10 17:53 17:51 18:25 18:05 17:38 17:39 17:45 17:58
737  Gideon Beall 11 18:05 17:40 18:21 17:30 18:15 18:20 17:53
881  Alexander Earls 9 18:19 18:35 18:22 18:04 18:24 18:23 18:09
983  Tim Smith 12 18:26 17:48 18:20 17:55 18:51
993  Anthony Tomaszewski 12 18:27 18:20 18:45 18:37 18:09 18:33 18:15 18:27
1,035  Hudson Mulhall 12 18:30 19:26 18:39 18:34 18:17 18:26 18:19
1,124  Ethan Landrigan 10 18:38 17:53 18:59 18:37 18:29 18:28 18:45 18:35
1,204  Ben Smith 9 18:44 18:23 18:30 18:24 18:49 21:03 19:33
1,297  Gavin Sanders 12 18:52 18:41 18:51 19:00 18:28 18:46 19:13
1,393  Aaron McDonald 10 18:59 18:34 18:46 19:39 18:57 19:04 18:52




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 8.3 264 0.6 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.1 10.3 11.3 12.7 12.8 10.7 8.7 5.8 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.1 61 91.1 8.6 0.3 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 25 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Evan McMahon 100% 28.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.2 2.8 100.0%
Cooper Knoblauch 100% 50.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 100.0%
Jace Trevino 100% 69.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.9%
Aiden Waugh 100% 85.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.2%
Riley Lembke 100% 190.5 28.2%
Ryan Yoder 100% 192.8 24.5%
Tate Knoblauch 100% 198.3 17.6%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Evan McMahon 100% 2.9 19.9 16.7 14.6 12.9 10.0 8.1 6.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Cooper Knoblauch 100% 7.2 1.1 3.6 5.9 7.9 8.6 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.3 8.8 6.4 5.0 3.8 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Jace Trevino 100% 10.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.4 8.9 9.4 10.1 9.5 9.0 8.0 5.6 4.4 3.2 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Aiden Waugh 100% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 4.0 4.8 6.9 7.8 9.1 10.5 9.6 9.1 7.7 5.9 5.1 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 100.0%
Riley Lembke 100% 34.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.5 100.0%
Ryan Yoder 100% 36.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.2 100.0%
Tate Knoblauch 100% 38.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Evan McMahon 1.6 31.8 31.6 29.9 5.8 1.0 0.0
Cooper Knoblauch 3.3 2.6 10.7 22.2 42.2 17.3 4.4 0.6 0.0
Jace Trevino 4.6 0.2 1.8 6.3 18.7 39.6 25.5 7.7 0.1
Aiden Waugh 5.5 0.3 1.5 6.1 19.6 46.3 25.8 0.4 0.0
Riley Lembke 8.7 0.0 2.1 26.7 31.2 23.4 13.4 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Ryan Yoder 8.9 1.6 23.9 28.0 25.9 16.8 3.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tate Knoblauch 9.6 0.7 11.5 20.9 29.3 29.3 6.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0