Valparaiso
Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #12
New Prairie Regional Rank #2
Chesterton Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 2.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 28.6%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) State Preview Ben Davis Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference NorthWood JV Invitational Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional State Finals
Date 8/24 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 263 331 239 765 269 242 356 850 325 264 295
Team Adjusted Rating 241 239 263 269 242 258 263 267 264 295
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) State Preview Ben Davis Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference NorthWood JV Invitational Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional State Finals
33  Mason Nobles 12 16:01 15:59 15:43 15:59 15:41 15:45 16:14 16:06 16:11
89  Sam Sienkowski 12 16:27 16:07 16:15 16:07 16:51 16:21 16:27 16:19 16:25 16:42
93  Thomas Krueger 12 16:29 16:45 16:29 16:19 16:26 16:32 16:43 16:24 16:21 16:33
146  Otto Leake 11 16:42 16:28 16:52 16:27 16:34 16:30 16:50 16:50
289  Sam Carpenter 12 17:09 17:52 17:06 17:17 17:07 17:04 17:11 17:06 17:06
431  Layne Galindo 9 17:30 17:22 17:33 17:23 17:32 17:28 17:29 17:31 17:29
494  Drew Stralnic 12 17:39 18:59 18:32 17:31 17:24 17:27 17:26 17:41 17:46 17:39 17:42
573  Desmond Calhoun 11 17:49 17:58 17:40 17:37 17:52 17:51 17:38 17:48 18:08
655  Jacob Kusbel 12 17:58 18:10 17:56 18:06 17:51 17:54 17:52 18:04
730  Liam Anderson 10 18:04 18:43 18:06 17:44 17:55 18:24 18:02 18:18
787  Owen Thomas 11 18:11 19:01 18:43 18:01 17:35 17:47 19:06 18:24
793  Liam Zimmer 10 18:12 18:47 17:57 18:24 18:01 18:09 18:17
954  Christian Pieters 12 18:24 18:34 18:18 18:52 18:11 18:31 18:07
1,148  Aiden McAlpine 12 18:40 18:57 18:40 18:43 18:40 18:31 18:31
Nathan Lashenik 10 19:06 18:53 18:56 20:15 19:09 18:59 19:26
Chase Henry 12 19:11 18:30 19:44 18:46 19:35 18:47
Grayson Forrest 12 19:25 19:08 20:05 18:50 18:42 19:31 20:22
Wes Moye 10 19:30 18:29 18:54 20:23 19:57
Trent Hoadley 12 19:36 18:18 19:27 20:28 19:26 19:49 19:06 21:01
Rowan Hatala 9 19:50 18:45 19:55 20:06




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 12.4 347 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 5.1 6.9 9.2 12.4 12.4 11.4 10.0 7.7 5.5 3.9 3.0 1.9 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.5 113 10.4 46.3 34.2 6.8 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 28 96.9 3.0 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Nobles 100% 31.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 100.0%
Sam Sienkowski 100% 90.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.4%
Thomas Krueger 100% 97.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.1%
Otto Leake 100% 137.4 57.1%
Sam Carpenter 100% 200.2 1.8%
Layne Galindo 100% 225.1 0.0%
Drew Stralnic 100% 230.6 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Nobles 100% 6.7 0.5 4.0 8.0 12.1 14.5 16.5 14.0 10.4 7.3 4.9 3.0 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Sam Sienkowski 100% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.6 6.7 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.6 5.2 5.2 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.0 2.0 100.0%
Thomas Krueger 100% 17.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.3 5.1 5.7 6.8 7.5 7.2 7.5 6.5 6.1 5.1 4.8 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.5 100.0%
Otto Leake 100% 26.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.1 3.9 4.2 3.7 4.8 4.5 3.9 4.6 100.0%
Sam Carpenter 100% 54.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Layne Galindo 100% 78.1 100.0%
Drew Stralnic 100% 89.5 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Nobles 1.3 28.9 61.9 9.1 0.1
Sam Sienkowski 3.6 0.0 1.2 24.4 40.1 27.7 5.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0
Thomas Krueger 3.9 0.6 16.2 35.9 36.6 8.3 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1
Otto Leake 5.6 0.0 0.7 3.5 13.8 55.4 14.8 5.8 2.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sam Carpenter 10.8 0.2 10.0 12.0 9.9 10.0 9.5 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.6 6.0 4.0 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Layne Galindo 18.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 2.5 3.1 4.1 4.6 7.2 9.1 11.9 14.1 15.9 12.4 6.9 2.7 0.9 0.3
Drew Stralnic 20.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.1 2.4 3.7 6.2 8.7 13.4 19.3 20.4 12.0 5.8 2.1