All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Cross Kick-Off |
Dave Walker Invitational |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Minutemen Invitational |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/18 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
9/7 |
9/14 |
| Team Rating |
388 | |
379 |
328 |
384 |
419 |
405 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
335 |
328 |
384 |
419 |
405 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Cross Kick-Off |
Dave Walker Invitational |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
Minutemen Invitational |
|---|
| 88 |
Jake Metzger |
11 |
16:33 |
16:28 |
16:25 |
16:21 |
16:42 |
16:34 |
16:50 |
| 160 |
Caleb Kotynski |
11 |
16:53 |
17:31 |
|
16:36 |
16:43 |
16:53 |
16:59 |
| 186 |
Jackson Zona |
10 |
16:58 |
17:47 |
16:45 |
16:41 |
16:53 |
17:06 |
17:00 |
| 208 |
Ryder Doyle |
9 |
17:02 |
|
16:55 |
16:55 |
16:57 |
17:22 |
17:02 |
| 318 |
Dylan Ryder |
10 |
17:21 |
17:38 |
17:04 |
17:17 |
17:40 |
17:15 |
17:15 |
| 387 |
Blythe Dieck |
11 |
17:32 |
17:06 |
17:27 |
|
17:26 |
18:06 |
17:33 |
| 407 |
Evan Kearns |
11 |
17:36 |
|
17:44 |
17:33 |
17:38 |
17:32 |
17:28 |
| 481 |
Jake Baumann |
11 |
17:45 |
18:46 |
17:45 |
17:24 |
17:42 |
|
|
| 513 |
Lucas Barnes |
10 |
17:49 |
17:50 |
17:38 |
|
17:49 |
17:49 |
|
| 562 |
Colin Lukowski |
11 |
17:55 |
17:22 |
|
17:58 |
18:03 |
17:34 |
18:19 |
| 599 |
Jakub Nurek |
9 |
18:01 |
|
18:06 |
17:39 |
18:02 |
18:01 |
18:08 |
| 672 |
Chase Payne |
12 |
18:08 |
17:56 |
|
18:14 |
18:25 |
17:55 |
18:06 |
| 797 |
Dane Hayden |
12 |
18:21 |
17:39 |
18:28 |
|
|
|
18:28 |
| 798 |
Zachary Cooper |
12 |
18:21 |
17:49 |
18:33 |
18:20 |
18:32 |
|
18:09 |
| 892 |
Michael Diesem |
11 |
18:29 |
18:41 |
|
18:28 |
18:28 |
|
18:09 |
| 930 |
Brandon Kearns |
9 |
18:33 |
|
|
18:22 |
18:41 |
|
|
| 1,040 |
Bennett Miller |
9 |
18:43 |
|
|
18:18 |
19:38 |
|
18:31 |
| 1,178 |
Kamdem Honickel |
11 |
18:56 |
|
|
19:18 |
|
|
18:29 |
| 1,228 |
Dylan Cooper |
10 |
19:00 |
18:45 |
|
19:36 |
18:50 |
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
61.9% |
18.4 |
446 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
5.2 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
6.7 |
5.6 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
3.1 |
1.4 |
| Regionals |
100% |
5.1 |
176 |
2.1 |
5.3 |
10.7 |
21.0 |
22.8 |
17.3 |
10.3 |
6.3 |
2.9 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.6 |
47 |
46.6 |
48.4 |
5.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jake Metzger |
94.5% |
86.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
85.6% |
93.4% |
| Caleb Kotynski |
66.7% |
140.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.6% |
37.6% |
| Jackson Zona |
63.3% |
155.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.5% |
20.7% |
| Ryder Doyle |
62.4% |
167.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.3% |
12.5% |
| Dylan Ryder |
61.9% |
202.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.4% |
| Blythe Dieck |
61.9% |
215.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Evan Kearns |
61.9% |
219.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jake Metzger |
100% |
17.4 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Caleb Kotynski |
100% |
32.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Jackson Zona |
100% |
37.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Ryder Doyle |
100% |
41.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Dylan Ryder |
100% |
58.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Blythe Dieck |
100% |
70.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Evan Kearns |
100% |
74.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Jake Metzger |
4.2 |
1.3 |
8.5 |
15.2 |
20.3 |
19.3 |
16.6 |
11.8 |
6.3 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Caleb Kotynski |
8.2 |
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
3.5 |
6.7 |
12.9 |
20.0 |
28.9 |
16.1 |
7.1 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jackson Zona |
9.2 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
2.8 |
6.2 |
10.9 |
21.2 |
29.0 |
20.6 |
4.7 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ryder Doyle |
10.0 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
6.1 |
12.7 |
24.6 |
34.9 |
10.0 |
3.5 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dylan Ryder |
12.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
4.0 |
28.7 |
18.8 |
14.2 |
11.0 |
7.6 |
5.6 |
3.6 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Blythe Dieck |
16.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
3.3 |
8.6 |
10.5 |
12.0 |
12.8 |
11.4 |
10.1 |
8.7 |
7.8 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
| Evan Kearns |
17.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
1.2 |
4.7 |
7.9 |
9.2 |
11.0 |
10.8 |
11.4 |
10.9 |
9.2 |
7.8 |
6.2 |
4.3 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
|
