Carmel
Boys - Girls
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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State Rank #1
Carmel Semi-State Rank #1
Brebeuf Jesuit Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 93.1%
Top 5 at State Finals 100.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%

RankNameGradeRating
10  Haley Harris 10 18:32
13  Kelcy Welch 11 18:40
17  Gina Genco 11 18:42
18  Kelsey Harris 10 18:43
24  Ellen Schmitz 12 18:55
60  Anna Schmitz 10 19:24
64  Samantha Dauby 11 19:25
75  Stacy Morozov 9 19:35
91  Rachael Weesner 11 19:44
102  Samantha B. Miller 12 19:48
104  Claire Corvari 10 19:48
109  Cami Trachtman 12 19:49
115  Emma McCausland 10 19:51
130  Jessica Lecher 11 19:57
154  Megan Kress 9 20:04
Diana Gorin 10 20:10
Gabrielle Stephens 12 20:15
Lucy Allan 10 22:30
DateRace Rating
08/18 Carmel Classic Invitational (5k)
08/25 Purdue Invitational 78
08/28 Hamilton County 92
09/01 State Preview 86
09/08 Mason Invitational
09/15 Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational 57
09/22 Culver Invitational 78
10/03 Metro Interscholastic Conference 112
10/09 Noblesville Sectional 114
10/13 Brebeuf Jesuit Regional 152
10/20 Carmel Semi-State 101
10/27 State Finals 96
11/11 NXN Midwest 93
11/24 Foot Locker Midwest
12/01 NXN Nationals




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 1.1 69 93.1 6.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.0 38 99.7 0.3
Regionals 100% 1.0 28 99.9 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 25 99.9 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haley Harris 100% 11.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.6 4.4 6.0 6.5 7.5 7.7 7.6 6.6 6.6 5.9 5.1 4.7 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.2 99.6%
Kelcy Welch 100% 15.6 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.0 5.4 6.4 5.3 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 3.2 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.2 98.0%
Gina Genco 100% 17.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.1 4.0 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.4 6.0 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.5 96.8%
Kelsey Harris 100% 17.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.3 4.6 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 2.8 3.1 96.5%
Ellen Schmitz 100% 25.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.3 3.9 82.5%
Anna Schmitz 100% 54.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 11.8%
Samantha Dauby 100% 56.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 9.8%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haley Harris 100% 4.5 4.0 10.1 14.1 14.7 13.5 11.6 9.3 6.7 5.4 3.8 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kelcy Welch 100% 6.6 1.0 4.1 6.6 8.8 11.1 11.6 11.7 11.3 8.9 7.2 5.8 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Gina Genco 100% 7.4 0.6 2.6 4.8 6.9 9.0 10.5 11.4 10.9 10.9 8.5 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.7 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kelsey Harris 100% 7.6 0.6 1.9 4.5 6.3 8.9 10.6 10.8 10.2 10.5 9.4 7.3 5.9 4.4 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ellen Schmitz 100% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.2 4.6 6.7 8.6 10.2 10.9 10.6 9.5 8.3 6.0 4.7 3.5 2.3 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 99.7%
Anna Schmitz 100% 21.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 3.3 4.0 5.2 5.9 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.2 5.2 4.6 4.5 75.0%
Samantha Dauby 100% 22.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 2.0 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.6 72.4%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haley Harris 100% 2.8 16.1 20.1 17.6 15.3 11.2 8.2 5.6 3.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kelcy Welch 100% 4.4 5.6 10.2 13.3 14.8 15.1 12.7 11.2 8.2 5.6 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Gina Genco 100% 5.1 3.6 7.0 10.5 12.9 14.6 14.2 13.4 11.3 7.3 3.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kelsey Harris 100% 5.4 2.9 6.7 9.5 12.1 13.4 14.4 14.6 11.2 8.8 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Ellen Schmitz 100% 8.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.7 5.7 8.8 12.3 16.7 18.7 19.2 7.1 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Anna Schmitz 100% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.4 6.2 14.8 16.7 13.8 11.2 8.9 6.4 5.1 3.7 2.8 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 91.7%
Samantha Dauby 100% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.6 12.7 15.3 14.1 12.0 9.7 6.8 5.5 4.2 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 90.2%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haley Harris 2.5 16.8 23.8 19.1 17.0 11.5 6.7 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
Kelcy Welch 4.0 5.9 11.8 15.3 17.5 18.1 14.3 10.9 5.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Gina Genco 4.6 3.4 7.5 12.0 15.9 18.0 18.1 15.0 8.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kelsey Harris 4.8 3.2 6.8 11.4 15.0 17.3 18.0 17.0 9.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ellen Schmitz 7.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.0 7.7 13.4 21.4 36.0 9.1 3.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Anna Schmitz 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 18.5 20.7 16.4 12.8 8.9 6.3 4.3 2.9 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Samantha Dauby 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.4 16.5 19.8 17.1 12.6 9.5 6.7 5.2 3.3 2.3 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0