Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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State Rank #4
New Haven Semi-State Rank #1
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 3rd place at State Finals
State Champion 0.3%
Top 5 at State Finals 71.8%
Top 10 at State Finals 98.5%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%

RankNameGradeRating
34  Olivia Hippensteel 12 19:07
57  Madison Fruchey 9 19:22
66  Melanie Ruich 12 19:27
74  Madison Stenger 12 19:35
87  Amy Poynter 12 19:41
92  Stacey Metzger 10 19:44
94  Caitlyn Chastain 11 19:45
122  Coral Whaley 11 19:53
134  Kate Morris 11 19:58
Alexis Norris 12 20:13
Megan Doty 10 20:19
Londyn Wise 10 20:35
Audrey Scaer 9 21:24
Sophia Roy 12 21:43
DateRace Rating
08/18 Huntington North Invitational 155
08/25 DeKalb Classic 163
09/01 Marion Invitational 169
09/01 Manchester Invitational 421
09/15 Flashrock Invitational 176
09/22 New Haven Classic 164
09/29 Northern Hoosier Conference 217
10/09 Northrop Sectional 209
10/13 West Noble Regional 205
10/20 New Haven Semi-State 185
10/27 State Finals 212
11/11 NXN Midwest 166




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 4.6 198 0.3 9.5 27.7 20.1 14.2 10.9 6.9 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.1 70 92.6 7.3 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.0 47 99.9 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 32 100.0 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Olivia Hippensteel 100% 36.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 84.9%
Madison Fruchey 100% 52.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 49.8%
Melanie Ruich 100% 58.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 33.2%
Madison Stenger 100% 67.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.6%
Amy Poynter 100% 74.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.8%
Stacey Metzger 100% 77.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8%
Caitlyn Chastain 100% 78.5 0.0 0.0 4.4%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Olivia Hippensteel 100% 9.5 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.7 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.3 8.6 7.6 7.0 6.4 5.1 4.4 3.9 2.9 2.5 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 99.9%
Madison Fruchey 100% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.4 4.0 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.1 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.0 6.3 5.8 4.5 4.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 1.7 97.0%
Melanie Ruich 100% 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.6 4.5 5.5 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.6 3.7 3.3 91.9%
Madison Stenger 100% 21.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.5 78.7%
Amy Poynter 100% 24.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.3 4.2 4.7 5.4 5.5 6.4 6.0 5.9 60.6%
Stacey Metzger 100% 25.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.2 5.8 50.9%
Caitlyn Chastain 100% 25.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.1 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.4 5.9 5.9 48.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Olivia Hippensteel 100% 4.7 0.9 5.0 14.4 17.2 17.2 14.3 11.2 8.2 5.0 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Madison Fruchey 100% 8.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.9 7.7 10.0 12.3 12.8 11.5 10.3 8.7 6.4 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Melanie Ruich 100% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.0 6.2 8.1 10.6 11.6 11.5 10.4 9.3 7.3 5.6 4.2 3.1 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.9%
Madison Stenger 100% 11.9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.0 5.2 7.7 8.9 10.1 10.9 10.2 9.1 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.8 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.4%
Amy Poynter 100% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.8 3.9 5.0 7.3 8.5 9.4 10.5 10.5 9.6 8.2 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 98.1%
Stacey Metzger 100% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.5 4.1 5.4 6.8 8.6 9.8 10.4 10.1 9.9 8.4 7.1 5.6 4.0 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 97.0%
Caitlyn Chastain 100% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.6 3.9 4.8 6.4 8.0 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.0 9.8 7.9 5.3 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.3 96.3%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Olivia Hippensteel 2.3 20.5 22.2 20.9 16.3 9.7 5.5 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Madison Fruchey 5.0 2.4 6.9 11.0 14.4 15.8 15.7 11.8 8.8 5.9 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Melanie Ruich 6.3 0.9 2.9 5.5 9.9 12.4 14.6 14.7 12.2 10.1 6.7 4.4 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Madison Stenger 8.2 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.2 9.0 11.8 13.5 13.5 12.0 10.2 7.6 5.4 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Amy Poynter 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.7 7.3 9.2 12.0 13.9 13.9 12.0 9.4 6.4 4.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stacey Metzger 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.0 5.3 7.7 9.9 13.2 13.8 15.2 12.1 8.2 6.0 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Caitlyn Chastain 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 3.2 5.1 7.4 10.0 12.6 14.1 13.7 12.1 9.4 6.1 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0