Carmel
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #1
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #1
Noblesville Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 99.4%
Top 5 at State Finals 100.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Taylor University Invitational Hamilton County Championships THSB State Preview Brown County Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conference Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/27 8/30 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 9/24 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 43 367 386 79 123 41 50 341 140 187 34 50
Team Adjusted Rating 43 43 45 38 41 50 43 47 45 34 50
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Taylor University Invitational Hamilton County Championships THSB State Preview Brown County Eagle Classic Trinity/Valkyrie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conference Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
2  Sarah Leinheiser 12 17:54 17:36 17:42 17:52 18:06 17:51 18:45
4  Christina Geisler 12 18:14 18:05 18:01 18:27 18:23 18:23 18:11
5  Maddie Dalton 11 18:18 18:41 18:30 18:25 18:32 18:26 18:17 18:10
9  Phoebe Bates 9 18:27 18:26 18:36 18:40 18:34 18:19 18:20
12  Rachel Anderson 12 18:33 18:31 18:25 18:44 18:38 18:40 18:22 18:40
110  Izza Khurram 10 19:47 20:51 20:40 20:41 20:19 19:48 20:11 19:24 20:11
113  Lily McAndrews 9 19:48 19:28 19:38 19:48 20:17
125  Tasha Geisler 11 19:53 19:53 19:45 19:54 20:23 19:46 19:35 20:13
126  Sydney Haines 9 19:53 20:26 19:51 19:42 20:02 19:50 19:44
166  Elizabeth Borlik 12 20:06 19:51 20:15 20:04 20:06 19:50 20:27 20:10
198  Anna Morozov 11 20:18 20:09 20:26 20:40 20:11 20:15 20:14
202  Daphne Boom 12 20:19 20:03 19:38 19:37 19:47 20:48 19:41 21:21 21:24
226  Lindsey Roper 10 20:26 20:29 20:29 20:39 20:28 20:17 20:27
253  Eva Brungard 10 20:31 20:32 20:34 20:21 20:41
271  Brittany Langland 12 20:35 20:15 20:49 20:48 20:30
278  Emily Hand 9 20:35 20:20 20:57 20:31
370  Emily Ashburn 12 20:52 20:56 20:48 21:01 20:51 20:30 21:18
375  Megan Kueber 11 20:53 20:13 21:34 21:18 20:54 20:36
477  Emma Wright 10 21:18 21:47 21:28 21:03 21:24 21:30 20:53
529  Adell Urtel 10 21:27 21:24 21:27 21:15 21:34 21:20 21:45
568  Olivia Shafer 11 21:35 21:02 21:36 21:42 21:32 21:48 21:40
584  Paige Ohrvall 9 21:38 22:58 21:38 21:23 22:52 21:15 21:10
605  Kierstyn Guerrant 9 21:41 22:07 22:01 21:47 21:50 21:30 21:11
644  Martha Hunter 9 21:48 21:13 22:04 21:13 21:30 22:35 22:15
647  Elle Nichol 9 21:48 22:12 22:10 22:06 21:54 21:34 21:16
707  Madalyn Sailors 9 21:57 22:28 22:11 21:50 21:53 21:45
759  Mea McCormack 10 22:06 21:46 21:58 21:52 22:38 21:51 22:39
797  Anna Nelsen 11 22:13 22:11 22:50 22:14 21:55 22:12
830  Halle Welch 9 22:18 22:26 22:31 22:38 22:18 22:03 22:09
915  Abby Hamachek 11 22:28 22:42 22:35 22:33 22:13
1,049  Nevian Brown 12 22:43 23:18 22:43 22:50 22:23
1,156  Alyson Pickering 10 22:57 23:31 21:37 22:51 23:29 22:58
1,172  TÈa Snider 12 23:00 23:11 23:00 23:14 22:43
1,180  Jena Arnett 11 23:01 22:50 21:58 23:22 22:42 24:19
1,214  Sophia Casati 10 23:05 23:21 23:09 23:13 23:14 22:45
1,395  Dani Bouillet 10 23:28 23:21 23:46 23:13 23:37
Colleen Harless 9 23:30 23:37 23:34 23:39 23:37 23:17
Hope Stauffer 10 23:32 23:50 23:29 23:39 23:24 23:30
Cory Steele 11 23:47 23:46 23:17 24:57 23:39
Summer Snyder 11 23:49 24:03 23:10 23:49 24:04
Alyssa Easton 11 24:31 29:39 28:18 20:35 29:05




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 1.0 38 99.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.0 21 99.9 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.0 18 100.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 18 100.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Leinheiser 100% 1.5 33.6 33.8 15.5 7.6 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Christina Geisler 100% 5.0 1.5 6.8 14.9 14.8 12.4 10.3 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.9 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 6.3 0.6 3.5 8.9 11.9 11.9 10.7 8.4 7.4 6.4 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 100.0%
Phoebe Bates 100% 10.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.5 6.4 7.4 7.8 7.6 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 100.0%
Rachel Anderson 100% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 6.4 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 100.0%
Izza Khurram 100% 101.3 0.0 0.0 14.5%
Lily McAndrews 100% 103.1 12.8%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Leinheiser 100% 1.0 83.0 12.2 3.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Christina Geisler 100% 2.4 5.9 35.4 24.6 14.3 7.9 4.6 3.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 3.0 2.6 21.2 25.4 18.6 11.6 7.8 4.9 3.1 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Phoebe Bates 100% 4.8 0.5 5.5 12.0 18.2 18.1 13.1 9.3 7.1 4.9 3.6 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Rachel Anderson 100% 6.1 0.1 1.8 5.5 10.7 15.9 15.3 11.6 9.8 7.7 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.5 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Izza Khurram 100% 39.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.8 93.9%
Lily McAndrews 100% 41.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.6 92.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Leinheiser 100% 1.0 87.7 9.4 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Christina Geisler 100% 2.0 6.7 44.8 26.7 12.5 5.3 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Maddie Dalton 100% 2.6 3.2 27.4 32.3 18.9 9.9 4.4 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Phoebe Bates 100% 3.9 0.5 7.0 17.0 28.0 21.0 11.1 6.9 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Rachel Anderson 100% 4.8 0.2 2.5 7.9 17.2 28.3 17.0 10.7 7.5 4.4 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Izza Khurram 100% 22.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.9 100.0%
Lily McAndrews 100% 23.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.0 5.3 5.4 4.7 4.8 4.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Leinheiser 1.0 88.1 9.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Christina Geisler 2.0 6.5 44.2 26.9 12.8 5.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1
Maddie Dalton 2.6 3.3 27.3 33.0 18.6 9.9 4.3 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Phoebe Bates 3.9 0.5 7.8 16.8 28.2 20.6 11.6 6.7 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rachel Anderson 4.8 0.2 2.6 7.4 17.5 27.6 16.6 11.1 8.1 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Izza Khurram 21.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.0 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.5
Lily McAndrews 21.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.6