Valparaiso
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #10
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #1
New Prairie Regional Rank #1
Chesterton Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 10th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 5.7%
Top 10 at State Finals 53.2%
Advance to State Finals 99.3%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Valpo Jamboree Lions Pride Invitational IWU Wildcat Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/23 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 237 NEI NEI 287 245 938 276 239 231 252 231
Team Adjusted Rating NEI NEI 287 245 237 276 239 231 252 231
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Valpo Jamboree Lions Pride Invitational IWU Wildcat Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
22  Ava Gilliana 9 18:49 NEI 18:58 18:35 18:43 19:00 18:53 18:53 18:54
27  Logan Ferngren 11 18:56 NEI 19:06 19:03 19:16 19:05 18:45 19:00 18:48
79  Julia Arnold 10 19:34 NEI 20:10 19:41 20:12 19:55 19:39 19:44 19:26
171  Elena Kipp 11 20:08 NEI 20:22 20:04 20:05 20:02 20:07 20:13 20:07
297  Hannah Shepherd 9 20:38 NEI 20:47 21:22 20:47 20:17 20:33 20:41 20:40
400  Nicole Brandy 9 21:00 NEI 20:58 20:47 20:56 21:01 21:50 20:52
426  Isabella Iussig 12 21:05 NEI 21:03 22:36 22:06 21:25 21:35 21:18 21:23 20:56
662  Esther Allen 11 21:50 NEI 21:08 21:34 22:12 22:33
678  Tarin Snider 10 21:53 NEI 21:29
701  Adrianna McFadden 10 21:57 NEI 22:08 21:36 22:39 21:30
714  Emma Fitzgerald 10 21:58 NEI 21:41 21:49 22:39 21:42
718  Kristyn Hoffman 9 21:58 22:14 22:41 22:33 21:28 21:29
773  Kylie Ireland 10 22:09 23:01 21:58 22:08 21:57
784  Bridget McGrath 11 22:10 21:35 21:23 23:12 22:37
824  Mary Warner 11 22:17 NEI 22:14 22:27 22:29 21:57
974  Ezzlee Faitz 11 22:34 22:21 22:15 23:10 22:43
1,100  Megan Dalton 11 22:50 22:48 23:28 22:31
1,215  Diane McGovern 11 23:05 23:16 22:44 23:54 22:52
1,322  Abby Steele 10 23:19 23:06 23:05 23:49 23:29
1,357  Ruth Stamp 9 23:23 23:35 23:12 23:14 23:36
Lilly O'Shea 9 23:39 23:48 23:13 23:58
Julia Fink 11 23:44 23:34 24:16 23:36 23:41
Corinne Ritzi 10 23:53 23:18 23:29 24:59 24:08




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 99.3% 10.4 315 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.0 5.9 7.9 10.5 11.3 11.9 11.0 9.5 8.0 6.5 4.0 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 2.0 114 44.8 29.5 14.2 6.5 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.2 40 85.2 14.1 0.7
Sectionals 100% 1.2 34 81.2 17.8 1.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100.0% 24.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.6 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.0 3.8 98.6% 99.9%
Logan Ferngren 99.9% 31.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 87.7% 99.5%
Julia Arnold 99.3% 80.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 61.2%
Elena Kipp 99.3% 131.0 0.0% 4.4%
Hannah Shepherd 99.3% 166.7 0.0% 0.0%
Nicole Brandy 99.3% 184.7 0.0% 0.0%
Isabella Iussig 99.3% 187.7 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100% 4.7 3.0 7.0 12.1 16.8 15.9 13.0 10.1 7.6 5.4 3.4 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Logan Ferngren 100% 6.4 0.9 2.5 5.6 9.3 11.7 14.0 13.4 11.5 9.2 7.0 4.9 3.5 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Julia Arnold 100% 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.6 3.7 5.4 6.1 6.5 6.6 7.1 6.9 6.3 6.3 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.3 3.0 100.0%
Elena Kipp 100% 36.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 100.0%
Hannah Shepherd 100% 69.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
Nicole Brandy 100% 95.5 89.7%
Isabella Iussig 100% 100.9 84.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 100% 1.6 21.5 51.2 25.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Logan Ferngren 100% 2.2 7.1 29.8 56.1 5.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Julia Arnold 100% 4.7 0.1 0.9 29.3 26.3 20.9 11.6 5.6 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Elena Kipp 100% 10.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 8.3 11.9 13.2 11.9 9.9 8.3 6.8 5.9 4.7 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Hannah Shepherd 100% 20.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.3 5.6 6.3 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.1 5.7 100.0%
Nicole Brandy 100% 27.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4 2.2 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.8 6.5 100.0%
Isabella Iussig 100% 29.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.2 4.0 5.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ava Gilliana 1.6 20.6 53.0 26.1 0.4
Logan Ferngren 2.2 7.2 30.2 61.0 1.5 0.1
Julia Arnold 3.7 0.0 1.0 66.6 20.5 7.3 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elena Kipp 7.7 0.5 9.7 15.4 16.4 12.1 10.4 8.7 6.8 5.2 4.2 3.6 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0
Hannah Shepherd 16.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.3 5.5 6.0 7.3 8.0 8.5 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.0 6.3 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.9
Nicole Brandy 22.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.6 5.8 7.9 9.5 10.7 11.9 11.2 9.0
Isabella Iussig 23.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.9 4.0 5.6 7.5 9.7 11.6 12.2 11.7