Avon
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #37
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #13
Ben Davis Regional Rank #3
South Putnam Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 10th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.1%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Hendricks County Championships Avon Invitational Ben Davis Invitational Flashrock Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conference South Putnam Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 8/30 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 427 458 473 566 379 406 447 452 419 510
Team Adjusted Rating 458 473 460 364 406 447 452 419 510
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Hendricks County Championships Avon Invitational Ben Davis Invitational Flashrock Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conference South Putnam Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
40  Taylor Nicholson 12 19:03 18:51 19:00 18:50 18:43 18:49 18:55 19:16 19:18 19:59
100  Kate Bernicke 12 19:43 20:34 20:36 19:40 19:01 19:27 19:47 19:36 19:50
187  Savannah Roy 12 20:13 19:31 20:11 21:05 19:41 19:48 20:14 20:13 20:13 21:18
490  Lauren Myers 10 21:20 21:49 21:49 21:26 22:27 21:31 21:22 20:59 21:00
613  Anay DeLaCruz 11 21:42 21:43 21:26 21:29 21:14 21:26 22:07 21:58 21:53 21:47
739  Katy Smith 12 22:02 22:06
803  Katie Risner 9 22:13 22:50 22:29 21:45 21:34 22:07 22:09 22:14 22:14 23:01
948  Elizabeth Myers 10 22:31 22:39 22:46 22:34 22:24 22:44 22:15
1,146  Sydnie Foster 12 22:56 22:02 22:45 22:37 23:34 23:49
Aileen Moreno 11 23:34 23:59 23:35 23:21
Maddie Risner 11 23:45 23:22 23:19 22:59 24:12 24:55
Kate Steiner 9 24:06 23:05 24:10 24:26 24:30 24:05




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.1% 17.9 417 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 9.2 275 0.1 15.3 19.5 21.4 22.6 15.9 4.2 0.8 0.1
Regionals 100% 2.8 98 28.5 66.0 5.3 0.2
Sectionals 100% 2.0 52 5.8 87.8 6.4 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Taylor Nicholson 97.1% 37.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 97.1% 97.1%
Kate Bernicke 20.5% 78.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.4% 20.5%
Savannah Roy 0.5% 110.0 0.3% 0.4%
Lauren Myers 0.1% 179.0 0.0% 0.0%
Anay DeLaCruz 0.1% 189.0 0.0% 0.0%
Katy Smith 0.1% 198.7 0.0% 0.0%
Katie Risner 0.1% 201.0 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Taylor Nicholson 100% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.4 4.2 5.2 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.0 8.3 6.9 6.2 5.4 4.7 4.3 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.6 100.0%
Kate Bernicke 100% 36.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.4 100.0%
Savannah Roy 100% 62.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Lauren Myers 100% 114.8 78.7%
Anay DeLaCruz 100% 128.0 33.5%
Katy Smith 100% 139.7 6.3%
Katie Risner 100% 145.9 1.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Taylor Nicholson 100% 4.2 1.4 7.5 11.3 25.1 22.3 15.9 10.2 4.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Kate Bernicke 100% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 6.5 12.5 17.6 14.4 11.8 9.7 7.5 6.4 4.8 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Savannah Roy 100% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.1 5.0 6.0 8.7 11.3 13.7 13.3 12.0 7.8 5.3 3.5 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 100.0%
Lauren Myers 100% 32.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 100.0%
Anay DeLaCruz 100% 37.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Katy Smith 100% 41.8 100.0%
Katie Risner 100% 44.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Taylor Nicholson 1.5 3.9 94.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
Kate Bernicke 2.9 0.3 56.7 20.5 19.7 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.1
Savannah Roy 5.6 1.0 10.9 14.2 43.0 13.5 7.6 4.1 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lauren Myers 17.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.6 5.6 9.7 11.8 11.7 11.9 10.8 9.3 7.2 4.9 3.6 2.0 1.2
Anay DeLaCruz 22.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 4.8 6.4 8.2 10.1 11.8 12.1 12.1 10.6
Katy Smith 26.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 2.2 3.0 5.1 7.5 10.6
Katie Risner 28.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.3