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2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #27
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #8
New Prairie Regional Rank #3
Chesterton Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 9th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.1%
Advance to State Finals 24.4%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Jack Bransford Classic Harrison Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 385 427 336 314 969 408 350 458 417 388 389
Team Adjusted Rating 427 336 314 385 408 350 415 417 371 389
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Jack Bransford Classic Harrison Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Chesterton Sectional New Prairie Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
118  Alison Ball 9 19:49 20:23 19:56 19:51 19:42 19:50 20:02 20:16 19:41 19:31 20:06
215  Lucinda Appelman 12 20:22 20:17 20:10 20:20 20:43 20:11 20:38 20:15 20:27
251  Madison Allen 12 20:31 20:23 20:01 19:56 20:23 20:17 20:46 21:06 21:08
275  Rebecca Timm 12 20:35 20:36 20:43 20:11 20:33 20:37 20:55 20:30 20:32 20:38
286  Lexie Cipich 11 20:36 21:06 19:53 19:59 20:56 20:13 20:21 20:41 23:43 20:36
384  Anacelia Martinez 12 20:56 21:11 21:53 20:35 21:05 20:53 21:08 20:52 20:49 20:43
401  Kaitlyn Mackovyak 9 21:01 21:10 21:07 21:01 20:55 21:35 20:34 20:38 21:26
594  Brisa Martinez 9 21:39 21:20 21:49 21:40 21:35 21:51
612  Bonnie Clancy 10 21:41 21:35 20:58 22:00 21:31 22:17
691  Avery Johnston 9 21:55 21:58 22:45 22:12 22:00 21:33 21:41
734  Kara Denvit 11 22:01 21:45 21:38 21:50 22:08 23:05
783  Ally Thaxton 9 22:10 22:08 22:05 22:21 22:11 22:11
960  Virginia Meyer 10 22:32 23:19 22:50 22:33 22:16 22:19
1,247  Alexa Burney 11 23:11 22:30 22:57 23:01 23:28 23:52
1,262  Bianca Vazquez 12 23:12 24:24 23:38 22:45 23:23 22:41
1,400  Michaella Drake 10 23:28 22:42 22:38 23:31 24:07 23:59
Abigail Svitko 10 24:14 23:36 23:53 24:53 24:41 24:10




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 24.4% 20.4 472 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.4
Semi-State 100% 7.8 215 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.7 10.0 13.0 19.7 24.3 14.3 3.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.8 75 1.7 17.4 76.6 4.2 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.8 63 2.4 19.0 72.9 5.7



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alison Ball 39.6% 91.2 0.0 20.2% 27.6%
Lucinda Appelman 24.4% 133.3 0.0% 0.4%
Madison Allen 24.4% 144.4 0.0% 0.1%
Rebecca Timm 24.4% 149.2 0.0% 0.0%
Lexie Cipich 24.4% 151.1 0.0% 0.0%
Anacelia Martinez 24.4% 173.7 0.0% 0.0%
Kaitlyn Mackovyak 24.4% 177.2 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alison Ball 100% 24.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.3 100.0%
Lucinda Appelman 100% 48.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 100.0%
Madison Allen 100% 59.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.8%
Rebecca Timm 100% 65.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7%
Lexie Cipich 100% 66.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6%
Anacelia Martinez 100% 89.8 93.8%
Kaitlyn Mackovyak 100% 95.8 89.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alison Ball 100% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.0 11.3 17.2 22.7 16.1 9.6 6.3 3.9 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Lucinda Appelman 100% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.1 5.5 6.7 8.0 7.8 8.3 8.3 8.5 7.7 7.4 6.2 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.6 1.6 1.2 0.8 100.0%
Madison Allen 100% 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.7 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.8 7.0 7.9 8.2 8.6 7.7 7.6 6.4 4.5 3.3 2.7 100.0%
Rebecca Timm 100% 18.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.7 5.3 5.8 7.2 7.9 7.7 8.9 8.3 7.7 6.2 5.3 3.7 100.0%
Lexie Cipich 100% 19.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.8 2.2 3.3 4.1 4.9 6.3 6.6 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.1 7.7 6.9 5.4 4.4 100.0%
Anacelia Martinez 100% 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.6 4.1 5.2 6.6 7.7 8.8 100.0%
Kaitlyn Mackovyak 100% 27.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.7 4.8 6.4 7.1 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alison Ball 4.9 0.1 0.8 18.8 34.6 20.1 11.2 5.8 3.8 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lucinda Appelman 11.1 0.1 0.8 4.0 6.9 8.5 8.8 9.8 10.3 9.9 9.2 8.1 7.3 5.6 3.9 3.1 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Madison Allen 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.4 4.3 5.6 7.0 7.9 8.9 9.5 9.6 9.3 9.1 7.3 5.4 3.8 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2
Rebecca Timm 15.2 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.2 4.8 6.1 7.6 8.8 9.7 10.3 9.6 8.8 7.4 5.6 3.6 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5
Lexie Cipich 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.8 3.4 4.6 6.1 7.2 7.5 9.2 10.5 10.4 9.3 7.9 6.3 4.3 3.1 1.7 1.2 0.6
Anacelia Martinez 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.9 3.2 4.3 6.6 8.7 10.6 11.8 10.9 10.8 9.0 6.8
Kaitlyn Mackovyak 22.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.5 9.1 10.7 11.7 11.9 10.7 9.3