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State Rank #16
New Haven Semi-State Rank #5
West Noble Regional Rank #3
Northrop Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 16th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 1.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 14.9%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Northrop Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/18 8/25 9/1 9/8 9/15 9/22 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27
Team Rating 276 270 329 278 331 366 357 268 300 286 277
Team Adjusted Rating 241 289 278 331 296 357 268 300 286 277
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Northrop Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
31  Julia Dvorak 11 18:58 18:27 18:58 18:37 19:02 19:11 18:51 18:59 18:58 19:17
94  Amelia Faber 9 19:35 21:15 21:13 20:45 20:10 20:40 20:25 20:05 19:57 19:26
153  Angelina Sedlaczek 11 20:04 19:47 20:00 19:54 20:24 19:56 20:10 19:54 20:03 20:38 19:57
191  Izabella Henschen 12 20:18 20:16 19:59 20:09 20:42 20:45 20:06 20:26 20:14 20:17
196  Lauren Richards 9 20:20 20:05 19:56 20:14 20:15 20:28 21:54 20:08 20:32 20:06 20:25
201  Skylar Kiess 11 20:21 20:18 20:22 20:26 20:42 20:14 20:21 20:03 20:18 20:17 20:39
251  Rhyah Jones 11 20:34 20:25 21:03 21:37 21:27 20:59 21:05 21:13 20:26
610  Megan Godfrey 12 21:42 21:22 21:02 21:22 21:39 21:16 21:37 22:32 22:36
786  Maya Hans 9 22:06 22:43 21:36 22:02 22:18 21:48 22:18
875  Heidi Warner 10 22:19 22:54 22:17 22:23 22:16 22:27 22:03
894  Chalaina Saine 12 22:22 22:50 22:48 22:42 22:08 21:39
994  Ashley Federoff 12 22:35 22:26 22:50 22:52 22:13
1,070  Anna Denice 9 22:45 24:32 22:59 22:31 22:19 22:44
1,116  Chloe Johnson 11 22:50 23:20 22:28 22:27 22:45 23:43 22:46
1,374  Emma Hunter 12 23:22 24:36 23:15 23:06
1,380  Emily McLaughlin 11 23:24 23:31 23:17 23:08 23:25 23:40
Kiera Hunter 9 23:32 24:46 23:17 23:33 23:50 23:06
Grace McGuire 12 23:55 24:03 23:18 23:37 23:54 24:46
Charlotte Hagedorn 12 24:17 23:13 24:16 24:28 24:33
Anna Tilbury 11 24:41 23:59 24:43 24:17 25:02 25:05




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 14.6 371 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.6 4.4 4.3 7.4 7.5 9.0 8.8 9.2 10.1 9.7 8.1 6.2 4.1 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.3
Semi-State 100% 4.8 156 2.8 7.2 19.5 48.5 20.8 1.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 2.8 74 23.4 76.6 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.8 67 22.4 77.6



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julia Dvorak 100% 35.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 99.4%
Amelia Faber 100% 89.5 0.1 0.1 67.1%
Angelina Sedlaczek 100% 126.3 10.0%
Izabella Henschen 100% 141.5 2.3%
Lauren Richards 100% 144.0 1.4%
Skylar Kiess 100% 145.3 1.8%
Rhyah Jones 100% 158.4 0.3%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julia Dvorak 100% 10.7 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.0 3.7 5.9 9.2 9.8 10.1 9.5 8.0 6.6 6.2 5.4 3.5 4.1 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 100.0%
Amelia Faber 100% 25.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.5 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.8 5.0 4.2 5.4 6.2 5.6 100.0%
Angelina Sedlaczek 100% 40.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 100.0%
Izabella Henschen 100% 49.3 0.1 99.9%
Lauren Richards 100% 50.9 0.1 100.0%
Skylar Kiess 100% 51.2 99.9%
Rhyah Jones 100% 63.1 98.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julia Dvorak 100% 6.4 0.3 1.5 3.9 6.9 28.8 20.8 14.3 10.4 6.7 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.2 100.0%
Amelia Faber 100% 12.1 0.1 0.2 1.7 2.8 5.9 7.5 11.9 16.6 26.7 17.4 6.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Angelina Sedlaczek 100% 15.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 3.0 11.4 20.2 19.2 14.2 11.0 6.9 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 100.0%
Izabella Henschen 100% 19.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.9 4.7 6.9 10.9 12.5 12.4 11.4 10.2 7.5 5.8 4.1 3.7 100.0%
Lauren Richards 100% 19.4 0.1 0.2 1.7 3.8 6.6 9.7 11.5 12.1 12.2 8.6 9.1 6.2 4.9 4.4 100.0%
Skylar Kiess 100% 19.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.2 5.9 8.7 11.3 11.9 11.9 8.7 9.0 7.5 5.8 4.1 100.0%
Rhyah Jones 100% 23.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.6 4.6 6.0 7.0 9.4 8.4 10.2 8.8 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julia Dvorak 5.3 1.6 3.7 6.5 32.0 20.6 14.7 7.9 5.7 5.0 1.8 0.7 0.1
Amelia Faber 11.2 0.1 0.2 1.7 2.5 5.9 8.6 9.7 16.5 28.8 16.8 6.5 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Angelina Sedlaczek 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 2.9 11.7 20.7 21.0 15.3 11.3 6.1 3.6 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2
Izabella Henschen 17.5 0.2 0.4 2.1 5.5 8.6 12.1 14.3 13.9 12.5 9.1 7.0 4.8 3.7 2.9 1.6
Lauren Richards 17.9 0.1 0.3 1.8 3.6 7.3 11.3 13.0 13.7 12.5 10.9 7.1 5.9 4.4 3.4 2.4
Skylar Kiess 18.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 3.2 6.2 10.8 12.5 13.5 11.9 12.9 8.7 6.2 4.8 2.9 2.3
Rhyah Jones 21.7 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.7 5.9 8.4 9.8 11.2 12.0 12.0 10.2 8.2