Roncalli
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #44
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #17
Rushville Regional Rank #2
Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season Rating Joe Harvey Circle City Conference Arabian Round Up Rushville Invitational CougarPalooza Invitational Indiana Catholic Championship RH Flashrock Invitational Ted Fox Invitational Marion County Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 8/21 8/25 8/28 9/8 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23
Team Rating 575 478 853 491 604 671 544 769 763 620 641 595
Team Adjusted Rating 430 578 491 549 649 544 673 635 620 641 595
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Joe Harvey Circle City Conference Arabian Round Up Rushville Invitational CougarPalooza Invitational Indiana Catholic Championship RH Flashrock Invitational Ted Fox Invitational Marion County Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
292  Lauren Turk 12 20:45 20:15 19:55 21:04 20:26 20:55 20:34 20:48 20:54 21:04
318  Valeria Lara 10 20:50 20:19 20:33 20:39 20:55 20:42 21:10 21:39 20:39 21:00 20:43
327  Rachel Flick 9 20:55 20:20 20:17 20:30 20:56 20:54 20:45 21:39 21:15 20:53
387  Sara Mcgraw 11 21:09 21:46 22:27 21:35 22:02 22:17 22:21 21:18 21:03 20:58 20:58
589  Ashley Flick 12 21:44 20:43 20:47 21:02 21:24 21:40 21:57 21:58 22:46 22:06
770  Taylor Turk 10 22:13 21:58 22:02 21:39 22:06 21:32 22:31 23:03 22:03 22:23 22:39
1,000  Mandy Sorenson 12 22:41 23:21 22:07 22:18 22:57 23:00 22:29 22:36
1,118  Sophia Ramsay 10 22:56 22:57 22:50 22:39 22:52 22:49 23:19
1,128  Livia Ianni 12 22:58 23:12 23:15 22:35
1,203  Amelia Shirley 10 23:07 25:55 22:57 22:27 24:08 24:22 23:18 23:06 23:18 22:55 22:55
Kylie Perkins 12 23:46 23:56 23:23 23:59 24:06 23:35
Michaela Payne 11 24:01 23:50 23:52 23:37 24:42 23:23 24:13 24:20




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 100% 15.6 409 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.0 8.9 11.8 15.6 18.3 18.7 18.6 0.3 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.4 86 63.4 36.4 0.2
Sectionals 100% 2.4 68 62.8 37.1 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Turk 100% 89.4 100.0%
Valeria Lara 100% 94.8 100.0%
Rachel Flick 100% 98.5 100.0%
Sara Mcgraw 100% 110.5 99.7%
Ashley Flick 100% 136.4 83.6%
Taylor Turk 100% 155.7 29.9%
Amelia Shirley 100% 171.2 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Turk 100% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.2 4.5 5.9 7.2 8.6 9.6 10.1 10.4 9.4 8.4 6.3 4.9 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Valeria Lara 100% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.2 7.2 9.4 9.7 11.0 10.6 9.5 7.7 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 100.0%
Rachel Flick 100% 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.0 4.1 5.9 7.5 9.1 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.3 8.3 6.5 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.7 100.0%
Sara Mcgraw 100% 20.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.7 8.3 10.0 11.6 13.2 12.7 9.8 7.4 4.8 100.0%
Ashley Flick 100% 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.1 4.5 7.5 9.6 100.0%
Taylor Turk 100% 33.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 100.0%
Amelia Shirley 100% 53.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren Turk 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 3.3 6.7 9.2 14.5 16.4 17.6 12.9 8.8 5.1 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valeria Lara 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.1 5.2 9.3 13.1 16.3 16.7 14.5 10.5 5.3 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rachel Flick 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.4 6.4 10.4 14.6 16.5 17.7 12.9 8.4 3.6 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sara Mcgraw 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.5 7.2 12.2 19.1 21.2 16.4 8.3 5.0 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Ashley Flick 19.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.5 11.6 13.8 17.0 19.4 17.0 7.1 2.9 1.6 0.9
Taylor Turk 23.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.2 9.7 16.7 14.3 12.1 9.3
Amelia Shirley 34.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2