Warsaw
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #20
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #3
Culver Academies Regional Rank #1
Manchester Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 21st place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.5%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season Rating Warsaw Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Marion Invitational NLC Round Robin 2 New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational NIC / NLC Manchester Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/24 8/31 9/4 9/14 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 376 273 415 343 369 385 413 343 439 437 375 387
Team Adjusted Rating 273 415 343 369 385 413 343 439 413 375 387
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Warsaw Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Marion Invitational NLC Round Robin 2 New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational NIC / NLC Manchester Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
52  Josefina Rastrelli 10 19:21 18:37 19:41 19:20 19:08 19:18 19:13 19:27 19:22 19:51 19:33 19:22
132  Wini Barnett 12 19:57 19:31 20:10 19:34 20:13 20:06 20:51 20:02 20:49 20:33 20:06 19:48
282  Mikayla Mimnaugh 11 20:42 20:25 20:44 20:51 20:41 20:46 20:54 20:13 20:54 20:42 20:34 20:49
287  Ava Knight 12 20:43 20:12 20:38 20:32 20:44 21:06 20:38 20:49 20:37 20:51 20:46
297  Regan Brouwer 12 20:46 20:20 21:07 20:43 21:08 20:54 20:49 20:24 21:13 21:08 20:34 20:52
300  Elizabeth Vander Bie 10 20:46 21:58 20:39 20:37 20:36 20:43 20:47 20:40 20:48 20:55
411  Amanda Lusinde 12 21:15 21:38 21:23 21:24 21:06 21:05 20:53 21:10 21:37
412  Marrisa Howett 10 21:15 21:20 21:39 22:03 21:43 21:21 21:13 22:07 21:02 21:03
644  Elliana Transparenti 9 21:53 20:58 21:18 21:25 21:54 23:02 21:44 22:29
801  Macelyn Marcuccilli 12 22:17 20:27 21:26 22:20 22:10 22:10 22:42 23:14
868  Ella Laput 9 22:25 22:29 22:26 22:26 22:16 22:12 22:38 22:30
915  Isabelle Herman 10 22:30 24:50 23:02 22:42 22:35 22:14 22:21 21:44 22:37
1,296  Joseleen Niebbia 12 23:19 23:55 24:12 23:12 23:09 24:43 22:35 22:53
Kirra Morgan 10 23:51 23:30 23:25 23:33 23:44 23:43 24:30 24:12
Margaret Barnett 9 23:59 25:34 23:18 24:29 23:40 24:20 23:28
Bryce Eherenman 9 25:01 26:23 25:13 26:05 24:23 25:28 24:58 23:32




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 19.4 451 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 5.4 7.5 11.5 14.7 15.2 15.8 15.0 6.6 1.1
Semi-State 100% 3.6 154 0.1 4.4 54.1 26.0 10.1 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.0 46 99.9 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 32 99.9 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 100% 50.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 97.3%
Wini Barnett 100% 108.2 0.0 40.3%
Mikayla Mimnaugh 100% 157.5 0.1%
Ava Knight 100% 158.1 0.2%
Regan Brouwer 100% 160.0 0.0%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 160.5 0.1%
Amanda Lusinde 100% 175.8 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 100% 7.8 0.1 0.3 2.7 7.7 12.8 14.8 15.0 12.1 8.6 6.3 4.9 3.6 2.9 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Wini Barnett 100% 22.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 3.9 100.0%
Mikayla Mimnaugh 100% 56.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 96.3%
Ava Knight 100% 56.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 96.1%
Regan Brouwer 100% 59.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.2%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 59.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 94.1%
Amanda Lusinde 100% 86.3 50.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 100% 2.0 20.0 29.9 35.3 10.3 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Wini Barnett 100% 5.4 0.1 0.5 3.3 15.8 21.1 22.0 19.8 10.5 4.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Mikayla Mimnaugh 100% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.1 6.3 8.1 10.5 9.8 10.9 10.3 8.6 7.4 6.5 4.7 3.9 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 100.0%
Ava Knight 100% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.7 5.1 7.1 9.9 10.8 10.5 10.0 9.7 8.4 6.8 5.3 4.0 3.1 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 100.0%
Regan Brouwer 100% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 3.8 6.4 7.6 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.6 8.4 7.8 6.8 5.4 4.2 2.9 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.5 100.0%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.5 5.3 7.6 9.0 10.0 9.6 9.5 9.3 7.8 6.9 5.6 4.4 3.2 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.6 100.0%
Amanda Lusinde 100% 22.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.5 6.1 7.7 8.6 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.6 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 1.0 86.0 11.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wini Barnett 2.8 0.8 24.6 29.2 26.3 13.2 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
Mikayla Mimnaugh 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.4 7.4 11.2 14.5 15.2 13.4 11.7 8.9 6.1 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ava Knight 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 6.0 10.3 13.5 14.4 14.5 11.9 9.9 6.9 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Regan Brouwer 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.7 7.9 11.1 13.9 14.3 13.3 11.5 8.2 6.3 3.4 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elizabeth Vander Bie 9.9 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.5 6.9 10.0 13.0 14.1 14.5 11.7 9.4 6.6 4.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Amanda Lusinde 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.0 4.7 8.4 12.0 15.4 17.8 16.4 10.9 6.3 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0