Brownsburg
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #24
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #11
Ben Davis Regional Rank #3
Brownsburg Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 10th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 1.4%
Advance to State Finals 14.3%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Brownsburg 4k Brownsburg Invitational Ben Davis Invite Hoosier Crossroads Conference Nike Valley Twilight Invitational North Central JV Invitational Brownsburg Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/24 10/1 10/5 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 370 390 281 309 382 444 930 403 400 407
Team Adjusted Rating 370 281 309 382 419 370 403 393 407
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Brownsburg 4k Brownsburg Invitational Ben Davis Invite Hoosier Crossroads Conference Nike Valley Twilight Invitational North Central JV Invitational Brownsburg Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
113  Lucy Tolliver 9 19:50 19:59 19:29 19:39 19:33 19:58 19:59 19:48 20:03
129  Scout Newman 9 19:57 19:10 19:27 19:35 19:26 20:31 19:48 20:33 20:42
201  Emily Baker 12 20:22 21:05 21:01 20:23 20:09 20:48 20:54 20:59 20:37 20:11
255  MacKenzie Steele 10 20:34 20:47 20:29 20:16 20:43
309  Hannah Oppy 11 20:47 20:59 21:01 20:24 20:56 20:38 20:52 20:39
335  Elise Cougill 11 20:54 20:18 21:03 20:00 20:25 21:12 21:00 21:19 20:55 20:48
337  Maya Rowe 12 20:55 20:08 20:43 20:09 20:31 20:55 21:19 20:57 21:25 20:50
344  Kennedy York 9 20:58 20:54 20:45 20:27 21:50
484  Sofia Bragg 9 21:24 22:16 21:01 21:32 21:10 21:10 21:38
496  Kaylin Traut 12 21:26 22:42 20:53 21:08 21:28 21:44 21:32
550  Mackenzie Williams 11 21:33 22:00 21:37 20:48 21:40 21:40 21:42
568  Sydney Parpart 12 21:36 22:33 22:07 21:29 21:03
786  Mary McCluskey 11 22:13 22:10 22:10 22:28 22:49 22:21 21:29 22:10
992  Annie Esterline 12 22:40 23:28 22:46 22:57 22:57 22:30 22:28 22:36
1,112  Reese Langhorne 11 22:56 22:56
1,269  Skyler Dickenson 11 23:19 20:53 23:19
Clare Dueweke 12 23:36 23:22 23:49 23:41 23:38 23:19 23:33 23:47
Renee Walmoth 11 24:06 22:24 22:34 24:13 23:56 24:51




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 14.3% 15.1 382 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 9.6 268 0.1 1.8 4.8 7.6 9.4 10.8 12.6 13.6 13.0 11.3 8.4 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.5 70 3.7 52.0 31.7 12.2 0.5
Sectionals 100% 1.4 41 60.0 39.7 0.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucy Tolliver 14.6% 72.9 0.3% 0.8%
Scout Newman 14.3% 83.3 0.0 0.1% 0.2%
Emily Baker 14.3% 120.6 0.0% 0.0%
MacKenzie Steele 14.3% 134.8 0.0% 0.0%
Hannah Oppy 14.3% 150.3 0.0% 0.0%
Elise Cougill 14.3% 159.5 0.0% 0.0%
Maya Rowe 14.3% 159.8 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucy Tolliver 100% 42.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 100.0%
Scout Newman 100% 49.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 100.0%
Emily Baker 100% 71.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
MacKenzie Steele 100% 82.2 100.0%
Hannah Oppy 100% 94.0 100.0%
Elise Cougill 100% 100.0 100.0%
Maya Rowe 100% 100.5 100.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucy Tolliver 100% 6.2 0.3 13.3 14.3 11.3 8.8 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.6 6.1 4.2 3.9 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Scout Newman 100% 8.6 0.1 4.3 7.9 8.2 8.3 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.9 6.1 5.2 4.0 3.0 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Emily Baker 100% 16.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.5 4.5 6.0 7.5 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 8.9 7.9 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.7 100.0%
MacKenzie Steele 100% 19.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.3 5.3 7.1 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.3 9.7 7.9 6.3 4.4 100.0%
Hannah Oppy 100% 23.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 3.1 4.5 6.2 7.9 9.7 10.8 11.2 10.2 100.0%
Elise Cougill 100% 25.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.1 4.4 6.3 8.1 10.1 11.5 100.0%
Maya Rowe 100% 25.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.1 2.7 4.3 5.8 8.1 9.8 10.8 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lucy Tolliver 3.9 0.3 21.3 32.3 23.6 12.6 5.9 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.1
Scout Newman 4.8 0.1 8.4 19.5 26.9 21.1 13.2 6.9 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Emily Baker 8.3 0.1 0.6 2.2 8.0 14.6 19.1 21.0 17.7 9.2 4.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1
MacKenzie Steele 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.1 8.1 13.4 19.1 22.4 14.4 9.0 4.5 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hannah Oppy 12.3 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.1 7.1 13.3 19.3 18.5 15.9 11.3 6.6 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Elise Cougill 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.4 6.3 11.5 16.7 19.4 17.6 16.4 5.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maya Rowe 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 5.8 11.2 16.2 20.0 18.3 16.8 4.9 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0