Chesterton
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #39
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #7
Chesterton Regional Rank #4
New Prairie Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 37.6%
Advance to Semi-State 92.4%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Larry James Invitational Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State
Date 8/14 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 468 416 374 389 636 459 1,150 561 593 621 614
Team Adjusted Rating 416 374 389 548 405 468 468 482 516 500
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Cross Kickoff Larry James Invitational Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State
116  Ciara Bonner 11 19:51 19:39 20:35 19:42 19:37
149  Alyssa Dunlap 12 20:05 19:42 19:59 19:46 20:06 20:39 19:53 20:02 20:18 19:59 20:01
346  Ali Sierazy 11 20:58 20:50 20:15 20:18 20:19 21:26 20:58 21:04 21:21 21:08
369  Madison Trumbo 11 21:04 21:36 21:05 21:04 20:47 21:21 20:31 21:18 21:10 21:18 20:53
442  Allison Van Kley 9 21:18 20:35 20:37 21:15 22:16 20:57 20:59 21:18 21:32 21:58
570  Grace Carpenter 12 21:36 19:41 21:11 21:08 21:00 22:03 20:55 21:58 21:16 22:03 22:24
571  Caroline Mills 10 21:37 21:58 21:15 21:14 21:01 22:05 21:37 21:37 21:34 21:48 21:53
655  Alaina McGrogan 10 21:53 22:08 22:03 22:09 21:49 21:31 21:50 21:49 21:42 22:19
675  Lauren Kroft 9 21:56 22:10 22:20 21:25 21:27 22:02 22:17
791  Olivia Kozak 12 22:14 23:03 22:26 22:52 22:15 22:26 22:42 21:40 21:44 23:04
802  Kyndal Haynes 10 22:15 22:31 22:25 22:24 22:04 22:24 22:04
1,017  Sydney Szabo 11 22:44 22:12 22:27 23:01
1,063  Payton Leady 11 22:51 22:51 22:04 22:37 23:07 23:14
1,095  Veronica Wilgocki 10 22:54 22:41 22:27 22:11 22:45 23:14 23:51 22:45 22:57
1,153  Alex Reed 11 23:02 22:44 22:33 22:35 22:50 22:58 23:14 23:19 23:19
1,175  Ellie McClelland 10 23:04 23:24 22:34 22:34 22:47 22:26 23:26 23:28 23:55
1,231  Jany Zhang 9 23:14 24:10 23:43 23:29 23:02 22:56 23:03
1,368  Alexa Jaworski 9 23:30 23:48 23:42 23:14 23:15 23:45




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 37.6% 22.6 516 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.4 6.7 10.8 13.2
Semi-State 92.4% 7.0 205 0.1 3.0 5.1 7.7 9.3 12.5 13.9 14.0 12.0 9.4 4.4 1.0 0.1
Regionals 100% 4.1 100 0.2 7.3 17.3 37.0 30.7 7.6
Sectionals 100% 2.9 72 0.1 19.2 71.1 9.6



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ciara Bonner 47.6% 85.0 16.0% 28.7%
Alyssa Dunlap 38.9% 104.3 2.0% 7.8%
Ali Sierazy 37.6% 166.6 0.0% 0.0%
Madison Trumbo 37.6% 171.1 0.0% 0.0%
Allison Van Kley 37.6% 180.5 0.0% 0.0%
Grace Carpenter 37.6% 190.1 0.0% 0.0%
Caroline Mills 37.6% 190.1 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ciara Bonner 100% 21.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.2 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.6 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.2 4.2 100.0% 100.0%
Alyssa Dunlap 100% 29.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 100.0% 100.0%
Ali Sierazy 100.0% 68.5 0.0 99.6% 99.9%
Madison Trumbo 99.9% 72.8 0.0 98.4% 99.7%
Allison Van Kley 98.8% 84.6 84.6% 96.3%
Grace Carpenter 95.1% 100.0 35.3% 75.3%
Caroline Mills 95.3% 99.9 38.3% 75.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ciara Bonner 100% 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 10.8 13.5 17.0 14.3 12.5 9.5 6.8 5.0 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Alyssa Dunlap 100% 11.3 0.1 0.3 1.8 3.9 6.6 9.9 11.0 12.0 12.7 11.7 9.1 6.1 4.8 3.3 2.5 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Ali Sierazy 100% 24.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.5 4.1 5.1 7.0 9.1 10.1 11.3 100.0%
Madison Trumbo 100% 26.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 3.5 4.4 6.0 8.4 10.0 100.0%
Allison Van Kley 100% 29.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.6 3.5 100.0%
Grace Carpenter 100% 35.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 100.0%
Caroline Mills 100% 35.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ciara Bonner 6.5 0.0 1.1 2.5 13.3 19.3 28.9 20.4 8.5 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alyssa Dunlap 8.2 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.5 12.5 24.2 27.1 11.3 5.6 4.2 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ali Sierazy 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 2.3 3.1 5.3 9.2 14.3 17.7 16.5 12.2 7.2 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.2
Madison Trumbo 17.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 3.2 5.7 9.6 14.4 16.7 15.8 11.6 8.0 5.6 3.1 1.2 0.6
Allison Van Kley 20.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.3 7.5 12.7 16.0 15.5 13.1 10.9 7.7 4.3
Grace Carpenter 23.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.9 7.1 9.3 12.4 15.8 16.6
Caroline Mills 24.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.6 9.7 12.8 15.1 16.8