Penn
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #8
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #1
Riley Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 7th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 14.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 67.8%
Advance to State Finals 97.8%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Manchester Invitational Minuteman Classic New Prairie Invitational Dana Homo Invite New Haven Invitational NLC / NIC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/20 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 249 396 347 298 912 339 285 1,205 281 301 463 310 260 234
Team Adjusted Rating 336 296 298 249 339 285 249 281 301 309 299 260 234
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Manchester Invitational Minuteman Classic New Prairie Invitational Dana Homo Invite New Haven Invitational NLC / NIC Riley Sectional Elkhart Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
23  Mary Eubank 11 18:48 18:45 19:35 19:30 19:03 19:45 18:42 19:05 19:16 19:50 19:12 18:38 18:41
61  Julia Economou 12 19:31 19:42 20:35 20:04 19:47 19:35 19:39 19:45 19:39 19:23
80  Ellie Stabnik 11 19:38 19:10 19:54 20:16 19:36 19:55 19:38 20:06 20:02 20:13 19:57 19:30
179  Morgan Collins 12 20:14 22:04 21:33 20:49 21:09 20:41 20:24 20:42 20:54 20:18 20:05
204  Ari Balinnang 9 20:22 20:49 20:19 20:22 20:40 20:30 20:14 20:16 20:29 20:11 20:30
288  Belle Rebolloso 9 20:41 20:50 20:36 20:28 20:27 20:32 20:40 20:43 20:30 21:40
293  Aubrey Morgan 10 20:42 21:17 20:46 20:22 20:23 20:40 20:46 21:10 21:15 20:51 20:34 20:34
384  Gabby Smith 9 21:07 21:21 21:23 20:52 21:04 20:54 21:04 21:12 21:16 21:06
500  Abby Stevens 12 21:27 20:50 21:41 21:33 22:30 21:13 21:53 21:21 20:58 22:02 21:38
692  Macey Gableman 9 21:59 22:21 22:26 21:51 21:51 22:08 21:49 21:49 21:58
704  Noralee Moock 11 22:01 22:50 21:43 21:43 22:10 21:57 22:10 22:05 22:08
734  Kaylie Hanyzewski 11 22:05 21:27 22:12 22:01 22:59 21:46 21:35 22:16
741  Yazmine Juarez 11 22:06 22:58 21:52 21:27 21:51 22:28 22:37
841  Kassidy Pentelow 11 22:22 22:27 21:42 21:41 22:26 26:58
927  Sia Grewal 11 22:33 22:44 22:52 22:25 22:34 22:17 22:49 22:28
932  Morgan Pfeiffer 10 22:33 23:00 22:43 21:52 22:51 22:29 22:31 22:30
1,154  Luna Liu 10 23:02 23:36 23:35 22:58 23:06 22:46 22:40 23:03 23:17
1,191  Evelyn Clyde 12 23:06 24:23 22:59 23:11 23:32 22:39 22:47
1,244  Katelyn Van Luchene 10 23:15 22:51 23:04 23:13 23:32 23:29 23:18
Sobia Ahmed 12 23:48 23:16 24:07 23:46 23:49 23:05 23:49 24:13
Amelia Little 10 23:48 23:55 24:12 24:08 23:46 23:35 23:05 23:43 24:22
Ella Bailey 10 23:48 23:09 22:56 24:05 23:46 24:52
Maycie Cummings 11 24:12 22:06 23:16 24:28 24:28




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 97.8% 9.0 291 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.1 8.3 11.6 12.2 11.6 9.9 8.4 7.8 6.1 4.9 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100% 3.2 105 10.6 24.1 26.8 19.7 11.5 5.1 2.0 0.2
Regionals 100% 1.1 30 95.0 5.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 20 100.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mary Eubank 100% 23.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.0 4.5 5.1 4.5 4.3 100.0% 100.0%
Julia Economou 99.2% 65.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 62.3% 94.3%
Ellie Stabnik 98.6% 75.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.3% 87.4%
Morgan Collins 97.8% 128.0 0.0% 15.0%
Ari Balinnang 97.8% 137.8 0.0% 5.8%
Belle Rebolloso 97.8% 159.4 0.0% 0.3%
Aubrey Morgan 97.8% 160.6 0.0% 0.4%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mary Eubank 100% 5.0 0.2 8.6 17.6 22.9 16.2 13.0 9.7 5.0 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Julia Economou 100% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.1 6.8 7.6 8.2 7.8 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.2 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.0 1.4 100.0%
Ellie Stabnik 100% 17.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.7 5.6 6.3 6.5 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.7 5.3 4.6 4.0 3.8 2.8 100.0%
Morgan Collins 100% 38.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.0 100.0%
Ari Balinnang 100% 46.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 100.0%
Belle Rebolloso 100% 64.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
Aubrey Morgan 100% 66.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.4%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mary Eubank 100% 1.0 81.5 16.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Julia Economou 100% 3.5 0.1 11.5 27.2 21.8 19.0 12.1 5.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Ellie Stabnik 100% 4.5 0.0 4.5 14.3 21.4 20.4 20.3 10.5 5.0 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Morgan Collins 100% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 7.4 11.0 13.2 15.0 15.1 12.8 9.7 5.8 3.4 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ari Balinnang 100% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 2.6 5.1 8.0 9.9 13.2 14.8 14.8 12.0 8.2 4.9 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Belle Rebolloso 100% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.8 7.6 11.1 13.7 15.1 12.7 9.7 6.2 4.6 3.1 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.7 100.0%
Aubrey Morgan 100% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 4.0 6.5 10.0 13.6 14.1 13.8 10.6 7.3 5.1 3.3 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mary Eubank 1.0 99.7 0.3
Julia Economou 1.8 0.2 61.5 29.6 6.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Ellie Stabnik 2.4 0.0 27.7 50.5 14.8 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
Morgan Collins 5.8 0.0 0.5 11.1 18.5 23.6 22.3 15.2 6.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ari Balinnang 7.0 0.1 3.5 9.0 15.6 21.8 23.6 16.7 6.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Belle Rebolloso 9.5 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.2 9.8 19.7 28.1 23.6 7.8 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Aubrey Morgan 9.7 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.4 8.9 17.8 27.6 26.5 8.3 3.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0