Roncalli
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #52
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #21
Rushville Regional Rank #2
Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 18th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Circle City Conference Marion County Championship CougarPalooza Invitational Indiana All-Catholic Ray Gerkin Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 8/20 8/27 9/7 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 604 485 775 952 681 628 603 734 642 657
Team Adjusted Rating 485 617 594 616 628 603 734 642 657
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Circle City Conference Marion County Championship CougarPalooza Invitational Indiana All-Catholic Ray Gerkin Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
328  Madelyn Kitchens 9 20:52 20:12 21:07 20:33 21:10 20:46 21:28 20:31 21:28
376  Sara Mcgraw 12 21:04 21:03 20:22 21:48 20:52 20:36 21:21 21:08 21:16
431  Valeria Lara 11 21:17 20:40 20:43 21:12 21:07 21:06 20:44 21:09 21:43 21:43 21:54
438  Charlie Fletter 9 21:18 21:21 21:53 21:40 21:45 21:17 21:06
460  Ava Shirley 9 21:20 21:07 21:23 21:18 21:37 21:41 22:04 22:48 21:09
685  Amelia Shirley 11 21:57 22:56 22:16 22:24 22:23 22:43 22:09 23:30 21:45
756  Rachel Flick 10 22:08 20:34 22:36 23:03 22:37 21:47 21:44 21:50 22:13
795  Claire Meinerding 9 22:15 21:59 22:23 22:15
915  Mary Grace Rykowski 9 22:31 23:05 22:18 22:34 22:35 21:54 22:47
1,125  Megan Gonzalez 12 22:57 23:20 23:16 22:21 22:37 23:05 23:06
1,127  Michaela Payne 12 22:58 23:42 22:59 23:24 22:33 23:03 23:15 22:46
Evie Eble 9 24:12 24:25 23:22 23:20 25:01 24:39 24:08
Angel Hudspeth 12 24:43 25:09 24:18 24:29 24:27 25:16
Izzie Vermillion 9 25:25 25:50 26:21 24:11 25:05 25:49




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 100% 17.4 455 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 7.3 36.6 50.1 3.0 0.2
Regionals 100% 2.3 72 0.0 72.3 27.1 0.6
Sectionals 100% 2.3 53 73.6 26.4



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Madelyn Kitchens 100% 98.5 100.0%
Sara Mcgraw 100% 107.9 100.0%
Valeria Lara 100% 117.8 99.7%
Charlie Fletter 100% 118.6 99.7%
Ava Shirley 100% 120.5 99.4%
Amelia Shirley 100% 151.2 68.3%
Rachel Flick 100% 159.6 43.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Madelyn Kitchens 100% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.8 9.5 18.3 18.9 14.8 10.3 7.3 4.5 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Sara Mcgraw 100% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.3 6.0 10.2 13.4 13.4 12.4 10.4 8.8 6.6 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Valeria Lara 100% 16.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.5 4.1 6.3 8.5 9.8 11.6 10.5 10.6 8.8 7.6 5.7 4.0 3.0 1.8 1.4 100.0%
Charlie Fletter 100% 16.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.2 5.6 8.0 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.7 9.8 8.3 6.1 4.8 3.0 2.2 1.3 100.0%
Ava Shirley 100% 17.7 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.3 6.1 8.5 9.0 10.3 9.9 10.3 9.5 8.0 6.1 4.0 3.0 1.9 100.0%
Amelia Shirley 100% 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.7 5.1 5.6 100.0%
Rachel Flick 100% 33.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Madelyn Kitchens 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.0 30.3 25.8 15.5 10.5 6.3 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
Sara Mcgraw 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.0 14.6 17.9 15.7 13.7 11.2 8.3 4.9 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valeria Lara 11.4 0.0 1.0 3.4 5.9 9.2 11.8 12.8 13.8 13.8 12.5 8.6 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Charlie Fletter 11.5 0.0 0.9 2.9 5.7 9.1 10.7 13.4 13.7 14.0 12.4 9.3 4.2 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ava Shirley 12.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 4.2 6.4 9.6 12.0 13.5 15.1 14.6 11.8 4.9 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Amelia Shirley 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 4.4 10.7 11.1 10.9 9.9 9.1 8.4 8.0 7.2 5.9 4.6
Rachel Flick 22.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.2 5.0 6.2 7.5 7.9 8.4 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5