Yorktown
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #95
New Haven Semi-State Rank #26
Delta Regional Rank #4
Delta Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 20th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 98.8%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating County Clash Challenge Arabian Roundup Taylor University Invitational Delaware County Wildcat Classic Jim Leffler Invitational New Haven Invitational Hoosier Heritage Conference Delta Sectional Delta Regional New Haven Semi-State
Date 8/20 8/25 8/27 9/6 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22
Team Rating 874 854 824 832 815 787 1,098 906 876 968 903 897
Team Adjusted Rating 854 824 832 815 787 940 906 876 968 903 897
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating County Clash Challenge Arabian Roundup Taylor University Invitational Delaware County Wildcat Classic Jim Leffler Invitational New Haven Invitational Hoosier Heritage Conference Delta Sectional Delta Regional New Haven Semi-State
519  Ali Smith 12 21:29 21:31 21:24 21:02 21:11 21:08 21:17 21:39 21:41 21:36 21:35 22:08 21:21
562  Rachel Stagge 12 21:35 21:52 21:04 20:47 21:05 21:05 21:07 21:54 21:36 22:29 21:46 22:02
660  Aurilia Moulton 10 21:54 23:57 22:11 22:09 22:04 21:54 21:44 22:28 21:33 21:49 22:05 21:36 21:44
706  Tori Oliver 10 22:02 22:35 22:11 22:03 21:56 21:46 21:33 22:08 21:45 21:59 22:30 22:22 22:01
1,299  Abby Goller 11 23:23 24:21 25:01 24:01 24:22 23:50 23:47 24:37 23:59 23:24 23:15 22:59 23:36
Alysha Crouch 11 24:00 23:10 23:31 23:26 25:02 24:06 24:10
Casey Gifford 10 24:09 23:42 23:36 24:04 23:31 23:12 23:38 24:16 24:45 25:54 24:53 24:14
Ally Romano 10 24:10 22:52 23:13 24:13 23:23 23:55 23:45 24:48 24:01 24:47 24:59
Sophia Goller 10 24:14 24:04 23:58 23:31 24:48 24:46 24:25 23:59 24:39 24:03
Maggie Dragoo 9 24:33 25:51 24:29 24:39 24:04




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 98.8% 18.6 470 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 5.1 10.9 18.9 29.8 30.4
Regionals 100% 4.3 135 0.2 2.7 64.5 31.5 1.1 0.0 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.3 69 68.8 31.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ali Smith 99.5% 108.3 60.3% 86.2%
Rachel Stagge 99.3% 113.7 40.5% 77.6%
Aurilia Moulton 98.9% 129.4 6.0% 38.5%
Tori Oliver 98.9% 134.6 1.7% 23.4%
Abby Goller 98.8% 161.4 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ali Smith 100% 21.7 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.2 5.2 6.2 7.0 7.0 7.5 8.0 7.0 6.9 6.2 6.5 100.0%
Rachel Stagge 100% 24.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 3.9 4.6 5.2 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.4 7.3 7.0 100.0%
Aurilia Moulton 100% 31.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.7 100.0%
Tori Oliver 100% 33.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 100.0%
Abby Goller 100% 51.0 57.7%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ali Smith 6.9 0.1 10.9 14.0 13.8 13.1 11.7 10.5 9.1 7.5 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Rachel Stagge 8.1 0.0 5.8 8.7 10.5 11.6 11.6 12.2 11.8 10.3 8.1 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Aurilia Moulton 12.2 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.7 3.7 5.7 7.9 10.6 14.0 14.6 13.4 10.2 6.6 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tori Oliver 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.0 6.2 9.4 13.3 15.6 15.1 11.5 8.0 5.2 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Abby Goller 25.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 3.8 7.1 12.5 22.3