Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #13
New Haven Semi-State Rank #5
West Noble Regional Rank #3
Northrop Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 12th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 1.6%
Top 10 at State Finals 23.1%
Advance to State Finals 84.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington Invitational Marion Invitational Northrop Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 303 301 339 286 426 280 285 329 317 321
Team Adjusted Rating 275 339 286 426 280 285 329 317 321
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington Invitational Marion Invitational Northrop Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
56  Haile Schiffeneder 10 19:26 19:50 19:28 19:52 19:44 20:21 19:26 19:31 19:41 19:16 19:46
104  Megan Lanning 9 19:48 19:24 19:47 19:37 20:19 19:47 19:40 19:47 19:59 19:52
110  Hadley Snell 11 19:50 19:57 19:38 19:48 19:41 20:41 19:53 19:44 19:54 19:40 19:47
188  Marybeth Hall 11 20:18 19:22 21:06 19:34 20:12 19:45 20:05 20:22 20:28 20:58
260  Maura Sloffer 11 20:35 21:03 20:48 20:37 20:50 21:25 20:33 20:33 20:56 20:50 20:27
296  Stella Kruse 9 20:44 20:32 20:41 20:54 21:53 21:31 20:48 21:23 20:35
567  Paige Hout 12 21:36 19:59 21:23 21:15 21:07 21:38 21:55 22:09 21:37 21:35
718  Aubrey Barb 12 22:03 22:14 22:29 22:00 21:42
809  Natalie Blume 9 22:17 23:14 22:54 22:13 22:02 21:53
1,119  Bella Slone 9 22:57 24:21 22:37 24:06 22:45 22:30
1,196  Elena Barb 9 23:07 22:54 22:50 23:33 24:18 22:35
1,212  Addison Windsor 11 23:10 24:29 22:54 23:51 23:07 22:38
1,220  Kate Allen 9 23:12 23:54 23:42 22:46 22:33 23:30
Bella Hilaski 12 23:50 22:11 24:59 23:17 24:22
Anna Ealing 11 24:02 25:55 22:29 23:22 24:11 24:41




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 84.0% 13.0 351 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.4 4.5 5.0 6.4 6.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.4 6.3 5.7 4.2 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Semi-State 100.0% 4.9 133 1.3 5.1 11.9 19.5 25.7 20.4 13.0 3.0
Regionals 100% 3.0 76 3.2 26.8 39.7 27.7 2.7 0.0
Sectionals 100% 2.7 64 3.5 26.3 64.6 5.6



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haile Schiffeneder 98.7% 58.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 92.1% 97.7%
Megan Lanning 90.4% 90.2 39.8% 70.3%
Hadley Snell 89.6% 92.4 0.0 34.8% 67.4%
Marybeth Hall 84.0% 130.2 0.2% 9.7%
Maura Sloffer 84.0% 150.8 0.0% 0.9%
Stella Kruse 84.0% 159.8 0.0% 0.2%
Paige Hout 84.0% 192.5 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haile Schiffeneder 100% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 3.8 5.5 7.4 8.7 9.2 9.0 9.0 7.8 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.1 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.1 100.0% 100.0%
Megan Lanning 100% 22.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.7 2.2 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.2 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.0 100.0% 100.0%
Hadley Snell 100% 22.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.6 4.9 100.0% 100.0%
Marybeth Hall 100.0% 42.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.0% 99.3%
Maura Sloffer 100.0% 59.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 92.4%
Stella Kruse 100.0% 66.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 82.4%
Paige Hout 100.0% 114.8 0.0% 1.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haile Schiffeneder 100% 6.9 0.1 2.2 3.6 9.9 16.5 19.7 17.9 11.7 8.0 5.0 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Megan Lanning 100% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.3 6.6 10.1 12.4 12.5 12.9 11.5 8.0 6.2 4.3 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Hadley Snell 100% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 6.3 9.3 11.6 12.7 12.5 10.7 8.8 6.4 5.0 3.6 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Marybeth Hall 100% 19.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.5 5.7 6.3 7.1 7.6 6.4 6.5 6.1 6.1 5.9 4.7 4.3 100.0%
Maura Sloffer 100% 27.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.0 100.0%
Stella Kruse 100% 31.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.2 100.0%
Paige Hout 100% 54.3 97.9%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Haile Schiffeneder 5.9 1.9 3.3 11.0 16.1 19.9 18.2 12.4 8.4 5.2 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Megan Lanning 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 7.2 11.1 14.1 15.1 15.8 13.6 7.6 4.5 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hadley Snell 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 6.3 10.0 12.5 15.7 16.9 14.0 8.3 4.5 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Marybeth Hall 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.7 11.2 12.2 11.1 10.6 9.3 8.1 7.2 5.6 4.8 3.1 2.3 1.4 1.2
Maura Sloffer 20.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.9 4.4 5.5 6.2 7.1 8.0 8.3 8.9 9.4 8.1 7.7 6.1
Stella Kruse 23.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.5 3.8 5.2 5.8 7.6 8.3 8.9 9.3 9.3
Paige Hout 34.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1