Elkhart
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #96
New Haven Semi-State Rank #27
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #7
Elkhart Sectional Rank #7
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 4.3%
Advance to Regional 96.7%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Minuteman Classic New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational NLC / NIC Elkhart Sectional Elkhart Regional
Date 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15
Team Rating 879 905 893 908 1,045 1,065 1,102 1,111 1,022
Team Adjusted Rating 825 849 878 971 854 864 861 846
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Northern Indiana Conf. Stomp Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Minuteman Classic New Prairie Invitational New Haven Invitational NLC / NIC Elkhart Sectional Elkhart Regional
414  Alaina Dibley 10 21:13 21:18 21:29 20:53 21:01 21:06 21:37
582  Ashlyn Anderson 11 21:40 21:18 21:55 21:27 21:31 21:38 22:21 21:39 21:21 21:46 21:41
825  Val Cruz 22:20 22:03
875  Val Cruz-Portillo 10 22:27 23:39 22:13 22:32 22:50 22:51 22:05 22:46 22:17 22:09
1,036  Adley Keim 12 22:46 21:04 22:21 22:54 22:38 22:49 22:44 22:30 23:30 22:59
1,077  Meghan Grasty 10 22:53 25:26 24:37 22:57 24:09 23:24 25:19 22:33 22:30
Lyla Boecher 10 23:40 23:02 23:40 23:56 23:09 23:34 23:41 23:38 24:29 23:32
Bria Jones 11 24:30 24:37 23:10 22:44 25:13 25:52 23:54 25:26
Lizie Quintano 12 24:38 25:40 24:51 24:38 24:20 24:21 24:27 24:54




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 4.3% 16.2 430 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
Regionals 96.7% 7.7 188 0.3 0.9 3.2 9.3 25.3 29.6 24.1 4.0
Sectionals 100% 3.7 105 6.6 43.8 28.2 18.1 3.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alaina Dibley 71.5% 88.8 70.2% 71.4%
Ashlyn Anderson 14.8% 106.7 11.0% 12.9%
Val Cruz 4.3% 133.9 0.0% 0.1%
Val Cruz-Portillo 4.3% 137.6 0.0% 0.0%
Adley Keim 4.3% 146.8 0.0% 0.0%
Meghan Grasty 4.3% 149.6 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alaina Dibley 100% 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.0 5.7 6.0 7.4 6.9 7.3 6.9 6.5 100.0% 100.0%
Ashlyn Anderson 100% 34.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.7 100.0% 100.0%
Val Cruz 100% 48.9 100.0% 100.0%
Val Cruz-Portillo 100% 51.7 100.0% 100.0%
Adley Keim 100% 60.5 100.0% 99.9%
Meghan Grasty 100.0% 63.3 99.4% 99.6%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alaina Dibley 11.1 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 8.7 10.4 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.1 9.3 7.9 6.3 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Ashlyn Anderson 16.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.0 5.8 8.8 11.8 16.3 18.3 13.1 8.2 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Val Cruz 22.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.3 6.7 11.0 14.4 15.1 13.4 10.6
Val Cruz-Portillo 24.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.5 6.2 9.7 12.1 14.4 12.7
Adley Keim 28.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.7 6.2
Meghan Grasty 30.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2