Warsaw
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #26
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #2
Culver Academies Regional Rank #1
Manchester Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 22nd place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.2%
Advance to State Finals 88.7%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Larry James Invitational Tiger Classic Marion Invitational NLC Round Robin #2 New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational NLC / NIC Manchester Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 8/23 9/3 9/14 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 376 376 319 430 382 379 332 357 366 411 395 382
Team Adjusted Rating 376 319 430 382 379 332 357 357 411 395 382
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Larry James Invitational Tiger Classic Marion Invitational NLC Round Robin #2 New Prairie Invitational Culver Invitational NLC / NIC Manchester Sectional Culver Academies Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
10  Josefina Rastrelli 11 18:11 18:46 18:35 18:52 18:32 18:35 18:00 18:18 18:42 18:49 18:35 18:46 18:04
280  Samantha Rastrelli 9 20:40 20:49 21:00 21:15 20:52 20:46 20:34 20:37 20:26 20:33 20:37 20:31
283  Mikayla Mimnaugh 12 20:40 20:35 21:20 20:23 20:52 20:18 20:55 20:29 20:13 20:57 20:47 20:29 21:21
284  Elizabeth Vander Bie 11 20:41 20:26 20:12 20:31 20:42 21:01 20:34 20:29 20:40 20:19 20:59 20:56 20:41
313  Ella Laput 10 20:48 22:04 20:32 19:56 20:57 20:43 20:39 20:30 20:44 20:57 21:00 21:03
315  Marrisa Howett 11 20:49 21:04 21:08 20:36 21:07 20:52 21:33 21:01 20:59 20:39 20:53 20:40
472  Elliana Transparenti 10 21:22 21:32 21:03 20:33 21:35 21:04 21:01 21:01 21:29 21:16 21:21 23:22 22:15
602  Eden Metz 9 21:43 21:18 22:17 22:10 22:54 21:38 21:37 21:35 21:32 21:27
774  Isabelle Herman 11 22:12 22:19 22:13 21:55 22:38
886  Issy Hermann 11 22:28 22:22 23:05 22:12
888  Bryce Eherenman 10 22:28 24:36 21:51 22:23 22:57 23:17 21:58 22:26 22:26
894  Margot Sprankle 9 22:28 23:50 22:37 22:41 22:37 22:03 22:02 22:19
949  Madeline Lezark 10 22:35 22:37 22:08 22:40 22:32 22:15 23:24 22:49
1,032  Margaret Barnett 10 22:45 23:36 24:29 22:32 23:01 22:10 23:00 21:59 24:09
1,043  Kirra Morgan 11 22:48 23:39 23:06 22:45 23:04 23:08 22:19 22:38 22:41
1,084  Hannah Fisher 9 22:54 22:57 22:24 23:02 23:00 22:38 22:45 23:21
Morgan Himes 11 23:45 24:24 24:14 24:13 23:24 23:53 23:43 23:12




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 88.7% 20.6 468 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.5 5.6 8.8 11.5 16.0 18.3 13.6 5.4
Semi-State 100% 4.0 165 1.4 25.1 22.3 17.6 13.2 9.1 6.0 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.1 60 92.6 7.4
Sectionals 100% 1.0 42 100.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 100% 8.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.9 5.4 8.0 9.9 11.7 11.8 10.9 8.3 6.8 5.7 4.1 3.2 2.7 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 100.0% 100.0%
Samantha Rastrelli 88.7% 156.5 0.0% 0.0%
Mikayla Mimnaugh 88.7% 157.5 0.0% 0.0%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 88.7% 157.1 0.0% 0.0%
Ella Laput 88.7% 165.1 0.0% 0.0%
Marrisa Howett 88.7% 166.0 0.0% 0.0%
Elliana Transparenti 88.7% 186.9 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 100% 1.1 46.0 41.0 10.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Samantha Rastrelli 100% 54.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 81.2%
Mikayla Mimnaugh 100% 55.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 80.5%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 55.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 80.8%
Ella Laput 100% 61.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.4%
Marrisa Howett 100% 62.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.3%
Elliana Transparenti 100% 88.5 20.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 100% 1.0 95.8 4.1 0.1 100.0%
Samantha Rastrelli 100% 15.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.9 5.1 8.5 10.4 10.9 11.6 10.3 9.8 8.3 7.0 4.6 3.1 1.9 1.5 0.8 100.0%
Mikayla Mimnaugh 100% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.3 4.8 7.5 9.6 11.0 11.1 11.6 9.7 9.0 6.9 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.5 0.9 100.0%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 16.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.3 7.2 10.3 10.8 11.6 10.8 10.2 8.5 6.9 5.4 3.3 2.4 1.5 1.0 100.0%
Ella Laput 100% 18.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 3.3 4.7 6.8 8.0 9.2 10.9 11.7 10.8 9.5 6.9 5.2 4.0 2.4 100.0%
Marrisa Howett 100% 18.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.3 5.6 7.5 9.7 10.5 11.0 11.6 9.7 7.8 5.8 3.9 2.9 100.0%
Elliana Transparenti 100% 26.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.6 6.4 8.4 9.5 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Josefina Rastrelli 1.0 99.9 0.1
Samantha Rastrelli 9.6 0.1 0.4 2.0 6.5 14.8 16.8 16.6 15.8 12.2 9.1 5.6 0.2
Mikayla Mimnaugh 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 5.5 13.7 16.2 17.1 15.1 13.3 10.0 6.5 0.3
Elizabeth Vander Bie 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.7 13.1 16.2 17.0 16.5 12.9 9.9 6.0 0.2
Ella Laput 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.5 8.9 12.0 14.8 18.6 19.0 17.6 1.0
Marrisa Howett 11.6 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.6 7.7 10.7 13.8 18.1 21.0 20.5 1.4 0.0
Elliana Transparenti 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 8.7 84.2 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0