Lake Central
Boys - Girls
2022 - 2023 - 2024
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State Rank #14
New Prairie Regional Rank #3
Highland Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.4%
Top 10 at State Finals 14.7%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff Larry James Invitational Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Lowell JV Invitational Highland Sectional New Prairie Regional State Finals
Date 8/13 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/3 10/14 10/21 10/28
Team Rating 302 387 308 285 252 309 383 769 392 329 361 398
Team Adjusted Rating 324 308 285 252 309 383 421 392 302 329 361 317
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff Larry James Invitational Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Lowell JV Invitational Highland Sectional New Prairie Regional State Finals
49  Addison Roth 12 19:21 19:38 21:31 20:10 19:39 19:25 20:01 20:24 20:01 19:42 19:11 19:27
83  Chloe Neal 9 19:39 19:39 19:23 19:31 19:12 19:19 22:59 20:03 20:07 25:03
142  Brigid Crowley 9 20:01 20:12 19:55 19:57 19:51 20:13 21:02 20:40 19:48 20:26 19:53
186  Nicole Vollrath 12 20:17 20:16 20:07 19:59 20:30 19:52 19:55 21:02 20:46 20:13 20:13 20:11
242  Mackenzie Smith 11 20:36 20:27 20:24 20:17 20:07 20:42 20:11 24:01 20:31 20:43 20:40 21:17
300  Sydney Churilla 12 20:50 20:03 20:10 20:36 20:16 20:16 20:47 20:43 20:53 21:20 20:44 21:34
317  Macey Thompson 9 20:52 20:24 20:28 20:19 20:53 20:54 22:29 21:57 22:21 20:56
377  Marie Weber 12 21:05 20:59 21:00 20:52 21:28 20:45 21:14 20:38 21:15 20:58 20:58 21:23
795  Danielle Moore 12 22:13 22:21 22:30 23:22 21:46 21:54 22:07
804  Madison Poortenga 10 22:14 21:51 22:40 22:09 22:05 22:33 22:24 21:59 21:53
829  Essey Gonzalez 11 22:18 21:59 22:13 22:00 22:03 22:22 22:23 22:32 22:09 22:17
952  Ava Giovane 12 22:38 23:36 22:27 22:35 22:11 22:47 22:25 23:12 22:26 22:42
1,018  Alexis Bonchik 9 22:46 22:34 22:36 22:12 23:14 22:23 22:38 22:41 23:52
1,254  Tara Schassburger 11 23:20 21:45 23:46 23:04 23:46 23:09 23:33 22:58 23:04 23:24
1,282  Hailey Wisz 12 23:23 22:02 23:13 23:13 23:24 22:56 23:02 23:31 23:28 23:40 23:22
1,289  Sophie Quiroga 9 23:24 22:33 22:48 23:05 23:10 23:28 23:53 24:19 25:41
1,311  Izzy Groszek 9 23:27 23:10 23:49 23:56 22:52 25:20
Daniela Ley 9 24:32 23:13 22:31 24:48 24:00 24:48 24:59 24:55 24:42




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 14.1 366 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.6 4.5 7.3 9.5 10.2 11.0 11.9 9.9 8.0 7.8 6.5 4.4 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.1
Regionals 100% 2.8 114 1.2 38.0 39.8 20.3 0.7 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 31 99.5 0.5



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Roth 100% 55.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 100.0%
Chloe Neal 100% 86.7 0.1 99.2%
Brigid Crowley 100% 134.5 83.4%
Nicole Vollrath 100% 162.9 48.0%
Mackenzie Smith 100% 189.5 11.8%
Sydney Churilla 100% 204.6 2.1%
Marie Weber 100% 219.9 0.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Roth 100% 7.5 0.1 1.2 3.7 5.4 8.7 12.9 13.1 10.8 9.2 7.9 6.7 4.8 3.9 3.2 3.1 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Chloe Neal 100% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.6 4.8 6.0 5.5 6.8 7.3 7.1 8.1 8.1 7.1 5.3 5.1 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 100.0%
Brigid Crowley 100% 23.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.9 5.1 4.9 5.5 5.3 5.6 5.6 6.1 5.2 100.0%
Nicole Vollrath 100% 30.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.5 2.6 3.1 3.2 4.1 100.0%
Mackenzie Smith 100% 42.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 100.0%
Sydney Churilla 100% 52.9 0.1 100.0%
Marie Weber 100% 66.4 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Addison Roth 1.0 71.3 17.6 6.5 3.2 0.7 0.7 0.1
Chloe Neal 2.5 6.9 32.9 22.1 15.8 11.3 6.5 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.1
Brigid Crowley 6.0 0.1 1.7 7.3 9.9 13.4 17.5 17.0 18.6 10.2 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Nicole Vollrath 8.4 0.1 0.7 1.3 3.9 6.5 9.8 17.7 26.6 18.1 8.1 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Mackenzie Smith 11.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 2.7 6.3 16.1 20.9 17.9 15.1 8.4 5.8 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2
Sydney Churilla 13.2 0.2 0.2 1.3 4.4 10.0 13.9 16.5 17.6 12.1 9.4 6.7 3.6 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
Marie Weber 16.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 3.0 6.2 9.3 14.8 15.4 12.7 12.1 9.1 6.3 4.9 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.3